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Pattern February 2024

NCSNOW said:
We got a long ways to go after early next week. I'll keep the punter on the sideline, but when Feb 1st rolls around and I'm still seeing day 10-15 ensemble maps like this, It's writing on the wall for me.

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Yeah I'm just not so sure about winter now. In this EL Nino the further we go now I think we see more warmer days than we do cold. If we make it to Feb 15th with no winter weather, I'm confident in saying we're done. I'm speaking of my area the upstate

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Writing winter off when there’s still 2 more months of it because long range ensembles that change about every 72 hours aren’t showing you what you want is always hilarious. I knew we’d reach that point in winter especially if we haven’t snow’d or had only gotten 1 event in like early December that this would happen. It’s like clockwork every year. I’m not God so I have no clue if it’ll get cold or snow or do anything but one thing I do know is these models don’t have a clue past day 5 at most either. It’s January 18th people, relax.
 
Stevo24 said:
I think you can already say it now. We know for sure the next 3 weeks hold nothing for us. Scary thing is it probably won’t be any better next year in a Nina. Some of us are gonna be staring 3 straight years of no snowfall in the race
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No we don’t know for sure the next 3 weeks hold nothing especially by looking at op runs that will change every 6-12 hours. The first few days of February don’t look hopeless at all on the ensembles. Good ridging on the west coast and up over Alaska, solid PV in eastern Canada to at least have cold close by and a good split flow coming into the west.
 
iGRXY said:
Writing winter off when there’s still 2 more months of it because long range ensembles that change about every 72 hours aren’t showing you what you want is always hilarious. I knew we’d reach that point in winter especially if we haven’t snow’d or had only gotten 1 event in like early December that this would happen. It’s like clockwork every year. I’m not God so I have no clue if it’ll get cold or snow or do anything but one thing I do know is these models don’t have a clue past day 5 at most either. It’s January 18th people, relax.
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Let’s get real. Many of us have less than a month left realistically. Sure there are exceptions when it snowed in late Feb and March but that’s like a once in a decade type event for many of us.
 
I've tried to remain positive but just being real here. It is wild how some of the more well known people (smarter than I) have really got quiet about February.. I am not just really speaking on here but just in general on social media. Ain't a peep being said anymore. But can't blame them.. Every long range ensemble & extended looks awful Typical February behavior.
 
Stormdoc said:
Time to page Judah Cohen. Any stray news? I thought this SSW event was going to turn around February
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The problem is the polar vortex quickly recovers and sets up shop on the other side of the hemisphere. We're about to lose the -AO for a couple of weeks...at least.
 
Mitch West said:
I've tried to remain positive but just being real here. It is wild how some of the more well known people (smarter than I) have really got quiet about February.. I am not just really speaking on here but just in general on social media. Ain't a peep being said anymore. But can't blame them.. Every long range ensemble & extended looks awful Typical February behavior.
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It may be awful. I have no clue what it'll do. It could be snow and cold or it could be a torch. My point is neither do models that we have routinely flip flop about every other day at this point. Point being, just sit back, relax, and wait. If we don't get anything then it's a 2 year drought and we have to wait until next year. If we do get snow, then yay. Either way it won't be because long range models say we are or we aren't.
 
Mitch West said:
I've tried to remain positive but just being real here. It is wild how some of the more well known people (smarter than I) have really got quiet about February.. I am not just really speaking on here but just in general on social media. Ain't a peep being said anymore. But can't blame them.. Every long range ensemble & extended looks awful Typical February behavior.
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You mean 70s and 80s with early leaf out every year now?


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Mitch West said:
I've tried to remain positive but just being real here. It is wild how some of the more well known people (smarter than I) have really got quiet about February.. I am not just really speaking on here but just in general on social media. Ain't a peep being said anymore. But can't blame them.. Every long range ensemble & extended looks awful Typical February behavior.
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Good thing its 2 weeks away. Id rather have those terrible signals showing up now than the first few days of February.
 
Also those of us east of the apps that think it'll be a torch because of east coast ridging, go ahead and prepare yourself because we will find a way to CAD ourselves to death so there might be some upper 60's and low 70's days but they'll be a lot more mid 40's and clouds too. It happens every all the time. Too warm for winter weather, but still cold while everyone else is torching around you.
 
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