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Pattern February 2024

SD said:
Split flow off of the WC will try to keep things cooler the farther E you go but it looks like eventually the nose of the pacific jet will simply get too far E and we will warm.

You can easily see why the was/is still great optimism for Feb with the traditional split flow and the parade of highs to our north. We are just flying too close to the sun with too much pac jet. If we see and we should to some degree a retraction of this jet the pattern should get better but a total pac jet collapse might have a tendency to over load with cold or drop cold to our W
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This might be a dumb question, but do you think the MJO becoming low and possibly COD will have an effect on muting the Pacific Jet a bit. It seems like it really wants get going when the MJO is amped up… just an observation I’ve made the last couple years
 
iGRXY said:
It's low amp'd and only there for a day. I think we will be okay lol
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That was a little sarcasm but the point is it's hanging around 5-6 which isn't good. LOL
 
Oconeexman said:
It's been that way for a while. Daffys and trees start blooming in Feb now. Get maybe 1 cold snap late Feb or early March but for the most part winter is over here once we get past Feb 10th-ish...
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This has been then case pretty much most years,
Even in the 60's thru 80's it was common place to have blooming for Feb in the Carolinas & Ga outside the mountains.
It's why I wanted snow with the pattern we've been in for a week or two.
Bc Jan is & always will be the best shot by far for Big dogs that stay around for a while outside of the mountains.
Winter's not over but the chances that we see a Big Dog are dwindling by the sec.
The longer it goes the more likely we need a miracle where snow is clinging to trees that have bloomed.
Like we seen in the past.
?‍♂️
 
BullCityWx said:
One thing I’ve noticed are the snow means jump after the first week of February. You have to wonder if the modeling is showing that week to be a transition period to the pattern we’re looking for.
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We talk about a transition period so often now to get to winter weather the pattern needs puberty blockers.
 
KyloG said:
That was a little sarcasm but the point is it's hanging around 5-6 which isn't good. LOL
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I think the point he was trying to make is that by that point, it’s low amped and doesn’t have nearly as big an effect.
 
Chazwin said:
I think the point he was trying to make is that by that point, it’s low amped and doesn’t have nearly as big an effect.
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I think Kylo was intimating that we'd probably all feel better if it wasn't doing loop the loops over on that side of the circle.
 
We have all been through enough "bad" winters to know you don't just reverse out of patterns like this in a few days...

Got to be kidding....where did it all go wrong.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6961600.png
 
SnowNiner said:
To be fair, Canadian is trash, toss. However if we completely replace the Alaskan ridge with a stinking vortex of doom, I may be done. #thawalaska
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The Jan 1-19th pattern was picked up well by all 3 ensembles in the 10-15 range end of Dec. The CMC Ens looks just like the GFS Op so not totally without agreement. But yeah I agree...let's see how GEFS/EPS look.
 
SnowNiner said:
To be fair, Canadian is trash, toss. However if we completely replace the Alaskan ridge with a stinking vortex of doom, I may be done. #thawalaska
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If it were four runs in a row showing something similar I would be more concerned but it seems to be all over the place, or it’s trending so quickly we’ll be back to a favorable look in a couple runs lol.
 
CltNative90 said:
If it were four runs in a row showing something similar I would be more concerned but it seems to be all over the place, or it’s trending so quickly we’ll be back to a favorable look in a couple runs lol.
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And it will be about as reliable as the one we are looking at.
 
Chazwin said:
I think the point he was trying to make is that by that point, it’s low amped and doesn’t have nearly as big an effect.
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I mean it’s borderline in the COD. Sorry but that isn’t going to be as big of a driver if it’s sitting near the COD regardless of what phase it’s in
 
Rain Cold said:
We're all talking hypotheticals, but if we do end up with that pattern, it's going to be rough. Then again, it's entirely possible that we end up with a variant of that which is easier to escape from.
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These things are never as good or as bad as depicted. I’m not trying to sound like a weenie but I’m just not trusting these things to tell me what February is going to look like on January 19th when these things flip around every couple days. Now if it’s the end of January showing this then that’s a totally different story and even then I’d trust it through the first week.in a week we could very easily see a full blown trough in the east or a full United States ridge. My point is seeing people freak out at every model run or even the MJO sitting in a low amp’d bad phase 12 days away is overblown when we should know by now that these things just simply can’t be trusted past day 5 regardless of what it’s showing.
 
iGRXY said:
These things are never as good or as bad as depicted. I’m not trying to sound like a weenie but I’m just not trusting these things to tell me what February is going to look like on January 19th when these things flip around every couple days. Now if it’s the end of January showing this then that’s a totally different story and even then I’d trust it through the first week.in a week we could very easily see a full blown trough in the east or a full United States ridge. My point is seeing people freak out at every model run or even the MJO sitting in a low amp’d bad phase 12 days away is overblown when we should know by now that these things just simply can’t be trusted past day 5 regardless of what it’s showing.
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Relax, nobody is freaking out...this is a Feb weather discussion thread. Keep the mocking to a minimum.
 
I’ve got my fingers crossed for a flurry sighting but I’m not sure what’s on radar to my NW will make it here. The sky is really dark though towards Martinsville.
 
iGRXY said:
These things are never as good or as bad as depicted. I’m not trying to sound like a weenie but I’m just not trusting these things to tell me what February is going to look like on January 19th when these things flip around every couple days. Now if it’s the end of January showing this then that’s a totally different story and even then I’d trust it through the first week.in a week we could very easily see a full blown trough in the east or a full United States ridge. My point is seeing people freak out at every model run or even the MJO sitting in a low amp’d bad phase 12 days away is overblown when we should know by now that these things just simply can’t be trusted past day 5 regardless of what it’s showing.
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This is the second year in a row I’ve booked a mountain vacation for the first weekend in February a long ways out. With a vacation scheduled, my focus is and was on a specific time frame. Looking back at last year, I remember the roller coaster of possibilities - models and ensembles first looked warm and rainy a couple weeks out, then showed a possible winter storm, then went back to warm, and so on. It ended up being cold and dry while I was there, probably the second coldest stretch of the winter besides the one around Christmas 22. That wasn’t presented on the models until a few days out, and while I didn’t get to see snow falling, I still took a day trip up to higher elevations and saw snow on the ground- the only snow I’d see all last winter.

I’m trying this go round not to get down or overly excited about anything this far out. While a lot of this hobby is about dwelling on the future, the eventual outcome is going to be the same no matter what the models show two weeks, one week or one day in advance. Looking at models provides entertainment for all of us, good or bad, but it’s also important to enjoy the present, whether it’s sunny or rainy, warm or cold, and especially if it’s snowy.
 
if im not mistaken didnt we reap the benifits with this recent winter weather due to the lag of mjo beong in favorable phase a couple weeks ago??
 
Flotown said:
if im not mistaken didnt we reap the benifits with this recent winter weather due to the lag of mjo beong in favorable phase a couple weeks ago??
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Not really… the MJO doesn’t have a lag time like the other indicies do. The key this week has been a low amped MJO… next week we’re high amped in phase 5/6 which helps promote the warmth we’ll see.
 
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