I'm just not sure, the ridge in the west could go poleward, the jet keep from extending, and the tpv sink southward toward southern Hudson Bay or the great lakes and we are cold. Conversely we could see the ridge spike initially, it gets undercut the by an over extended pac jet and AN heights expand across the US and we alternate cool and warm. The mjo in p7 doesn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies that scenario 1 is correct and it could be more like 2/10-14 before we see a cold pattern.
Yeah it was supposed to be a bad ZR event for CLT metro on the forecasts the day before. If I remember correctly at the 11pm news the night before the storm, Eric Thomas said that the newest models were coming in colder and he thought we might end up with a sleet/snow event after short period of ZR
This right here is the look?
You can see the split flow, but the ridge axis seems a bit far to the west for my liking.GEFS Heights near the end
Oh thats a biggie then, ill have to check off my wishcasting 2014 analaog an head back to the drawing board. I was correct it evolved over a couple of seasons and ended up strong 2016. Really should only apply 2016. Thanks Grit for pointing out.
You know I think I remember that exact newscast. He had a killer winter that year - they were the ones who predicted 1/23/03 could be a bigger deal at 11PM.
We will rage. Eat lots of pizza. And get on our roof.
Phase 7 in February actually has a higher percentage chance of producing winter storms in NC than phase 1-2. I do think you’re right that there will be some variability to the pattern and we will see a bit of a see saw. The biggest thing that I like is seeing the location and orientation of that PV… it’s set up to give some good CAD events
You’re right about that 1/23/2003 storm. He showed at 11pm how that meso-low had just formed back over the western Upstate that the models had just picked up on during the evening and he said that he thought there was going to be a surprise. Nothing though will match a year later with him when at 11pm the night before the February 2004 storm, he had the entire CLT metro area getting 6-10” and said point blank that if it busted he would be too low and that several models were showing 13-20”… the two news anchors laughed at that.
Oh yeah, it’s far from perfect even if the ridge axis is in the right spot, but just trying to get some colder air back into the CONUS as a start
That’s a Feb 1899 look! ?GEFS Heights near the end
For sure. If we're lucky enough to have cold air nearby, we're in the game. As always, it comes down to the details. None of the really great-looking patterns we've seen in the LR so far have produced anything east of the Apps. Who knows. Hopefully, we do indeed end up with some cold air on our side of the continent....somewhere.
Yep, a Joe Bastardi dream map, not for us though
Trying to predict the month of February when it's still 2 weeks ago is not smart.
