I'm just not sure, the ridge in the west could go poleward, the jet keep from extending, and the tpv sink southward toward southern Hudson Bay or the great lakes and we are cold. Conversely we could see the ridge spike initially, it gets undercut the by an over extended pac jet and AN heights expand across the US and we alternate cool and warm. The mjo in p7 doesn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies that scenario 1 is correct and it could be more like 2/10-14 before we see a cold pattern.
Yeah it was supposed to be a bad ZR event for CLT metro on the forecasts the day before. If I remember correctly at the 11pm news the night before the storm, Eric Thomas said that the newest models were coming in colder and he thought we might end up with a sleet/snow event after short period of ZR
This right here is the look?
You can see the split flow, but the ridge axis seems a bit far to the west for my liking.GEFS Heights near the end
Oh thats a biggie then, ill have to check off my wishcasting 2014 analaog an head back to the drawing board. I was correct it evolved over a couple of seasons and ended up strong 2016. Really should only apply 2016. Thanks Grit for pointing out.
You know I think I remember that exact newscast. He had a killer winter that year - they were the ones who predicted 1/23/03 could be a bigger deal at 11PM.
We will rage. Eat lots of pizza. And get on our roof.
Phase 7 in February actually has a higher percentage chance of producing winter storms in NC than phase 1-2. I do think you’re right that there will be some variability to the pattern and we will see a bit of a see saw. The biggest thing that I like is seeing the location and orientation of that PV… it’s set up to give some good CAD events
You’re right about that 1/23/2003 storm. He showed at 11pm how that meso-low had just formed back over the western Upstate that the models had just picked up on during the evening and he said that he thought there was going to be a surprise. Nothing though will match a year later with him when at 11pm the night before the February 2004 storm, he had the entire CLT metro area getting 6-10” and said point blank that if it busted he would be too low and that several models were showing 13-20”… the two news anchors laughed at that.
Oh yeah, it’s far from perfect even if the ridge axis is in the right spot, but just trying to get some colder air back into the CONUS as a start
That’s a Feb 1899 look! ?GEFS Heights near the end
For sure. If we're lucky enough to have cold air nearby, we're in the game. As always, it comes down to the details. None of the really great-looking patterns we've seen in the LR so far have produced anything east of the Apps. Who knows. Hopefully, we do indeed end up with some cold air on our side of the continent....somewhere.
Yep, a Joe Bastardi dream map, not for us though
Trying to predict the month of February when it's still 2 weeks ago is not smart.
But We built the snowpack in the Midwest, that's all that had to be accomplished 1st.. Said it in the fall and it rings true today. Never bet on the super/strong el nino hoarse. Better odds in La nina imo. Biggest Rain Cold quote of all time. Get the cold here first and foremost. Then worry about finding energy or a wave etc. Strong el nino's do the opposite and the Pac Flood of air hardly ever lets up
Your not wrong,
We don't ever get anything with wall to wall cold anyway. It's always dry when it's cold like it is today. The only chance we get at snow is when the temps are hovering right at freezing. That's why we always have to play the game of being on the line between rain and snow, and someone gets screwed while 10 miles away someone is getting snow.
I'll take, What is false? for $1000, Alex.
Then show me in the last 10 years how many times we have had snow here with wall to wall cold.
Ok, first, show me in the last 10 years when we've had wall to wall cold.
You were the one that disagreed with me. Not going to do the work for you. Nice try.
Well actually, you began with a faulty premise and then followed it up with an absurd proclamation that it only snows when temperatures are near freezing. You don't need to do my work for me. But would you please, for the love of Pete do at least SOME work? Just a little bit of work, not all the time, but some of the time. I beg you.
It's not faulty. When it's bitter cold here it's dry. When it snows most of the time we're right around freezing, maybe in the high 20s. The bitter cold comes with dry weather.
Indeed the EPS had the best look there, but man, none of them have improved today with the western ridging...and what little ridging is there, it gets washed out shortly thereafter with low pressure moving into the GOAK.
Yep, you said it best at the end. Every time we get a few days of rough trends.. it always follows a few days of better ones.
We literally had at least two diamond dust, cold events in 2022
It's so often in the transition zones. Like the other day. It was in the 60's here out ahead of it and I had 13.1 this morning. That's when timing can find moisture, and cold, close enough it can sometimes make them dance together
I used to think of warm ups in winter as opportunities...but that was back when warm and cold were transient. Now when it warms up, it can become spring whether it's Feb, or not. I don't much care for the new modern weather. I liked the weather I had back when it snowed, or a good sleet storm like so many just had...where cold patterns rolled thru like waves. It's been 18 years since I had anything I could street sled on. Now I'd need a hoist to get up and down off the sled, and that's if my studded tires can make the hill easily....no way I could walk it, lol. It'll be in the 60's again next week, so then it's a wait to see if it gets cold again. Never used to have to wonder if it would get cold in Feb. What a world, what a world.
