• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February 2024

CltNative90 said:
This is the second year in a row I’ve booked a mountain vacation for the first weekend in February a long ways out. With a vacation scheduled, my focus is and was on a specific time frame. Looking back at last year, I remember the roller coaster of possibilities - models and ensembles first looked warm and rainy a couple weeks out, then showed a possible winter storm, then went back to warm, and so on. It ended up being cold and dry while I was there, probably the second coldest stretch of the winter besides the one around Christmas 22. That wasn’t presented on the models until a few days out, and while I didn’t get to see snow falling, I still took a day trip up to higher elevations and saw snow on the ground- the only snow I’d see all last winter.

I’m trying this go round not to get down or overly excited about anything this far out. While a lot of this hobby is about dwelling on the future, the eventual outcome is going to be the same no matter what the models show two weeks, one week or one day in advance. Looking at models provides entertainment for all of us, good or bad, but it’s also important to enjoy the present, whether it’s sunny or rainy, warm or cold, and especially if it’s snowy.
Click to expand...
“This far out”? This far out would mean predicting early spring weather.

Winter is here and now, and not much of it left barring a 1993 type event.
 
Avalanche said:
“This far out”? This far out would mean predicting early spring weather.

Winter is here and now, and not much of it left barring a 1993 type event.
Click to expand...
Yep. Need to get out and enjoy the winter weather while we have it. Ensembles agree at this point that the weather during early February looks like early Spring. The premise of my earlier post was not that the models or ensembles are wrong, but that there will inevitably be variability between now and early February, and while it’s entertaining to look at and discuss/ complain about/ declare as fact specific details of each individual run, the end product is rarely if ever exactly what is shown 240 or 300 hours out. I was just using my own experience and observation from last year to back this up, since what was being advertised by the models 2 weeks out ended up completely different from what verified in reality.

Below are two trend GIFs of the GEFS. The first is for 12z on January 30th and the second is for 0z on February 2nd. Last 6 runs. What I see is a lot of moving pieces that are changing each run.

B360B996-0A7C-486F-8CD1-C03316E4502B.gif
EC1C21A2-7D84-4EA8-976D-1372A261BBF6.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 142941
Click to expand...
You know there have certainly been some impressive storms that occurred during a short 4-5 day window like these ensembles are showing…February 1989 comes to mind and honestly February 2014 happened after highs in the 60s on the 2/9, cold front dropped through on the 10th, smaller storm on the 11th, big storm on 12th and 13th, then back close to 50 on the 14th and then well into the 50s on the 15th.
 
Flotown said:
bamwx says winter comes back between feb 5 to 10th he says we aint done
..
Click to expand...

JB - leans more towards 15ish when winter comes back. But could come back in a vengeance with the cold air centered in the east this time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I mean, I hate to be too critical of people who honestly try to forecast the long range. But you can't flip and flop around every other day and be wrong 10 times in a season and get high marks for accuracy. BAM is just awful....every year. And I think JB tries, but he has been more wrong that right so far this year. Just admit you blew it and move on.
 
Rain Cold said:
I mean, I hate to be too critical of people who honestly try to forecast the long range. But you can't flip and flop around every other day and be wrong 10 times in a season and get high marks for accuracy. BAM is just awful....every year. And I think JB tries, but he has been more wrong that right so far this year. Just admit you blew it and move on.
Click to expand...
well look at his forecast snow percentages for the winter pretty good if u ask me
 
Rain Cold said:
I mean, I hate to be too critical of people who honestly try to forecast the long range. But you can't flip and flop around every other day and be wrong 10 times in a season and get high marks for accuracy. BAM is just awful....every year. And I think JB tries, but he has been more wrong that right so far this year. Just admit you blew it and move on.
Click to expand...
They don’t do anything more intuitive than the 10 or so posters on here do, probably less actually. I feel like the guys in here that really spend the time looking through everything do a way better job really putting together an ensemble of possible pattern outcomes.
 
Rain Cold said:
I mean, I hate to be too critical of people who honestly try to forecast the long range. But you can't flip and flop around every other day and be wrong 10 times in a season and get high marks for accuracy. BAM is just awful....every year. And I think JB tries, but he has been more wrong that right so far this year. Just admit you blew it and move on.
Click to expand...
Can you give me someone who has not flip flopped this winter and has been spot on? I would like to follow Him/Them and see what lies ahead for us... And I will not post anything else from JB, Oh btw his winter forecast doesn't end until March 31st then we can see how much ---- he pushed this winter!! TIA
 
Last edited:
BIG FROSTY said:
Can you give me someone who has not flip flopped this winter and has been spot on? I would like to follow Him/Them and see what lies ahead for us... TIA And I will not post anything else from JB!
Click to expand...
Webb's been generally correct so far including the warm up we are going to see next week and maybe even the brief chance we have near month's end. That said, the jury is still out for his Fwebb progg.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Can you give me someone who has not flip flopped this winter and has been spot on? I would like to follow Him/Them and see what lies ahead for us... TIA And I will not post anything else from JB!
Click to expand...
No sir. I can't. All I'm saying is that winter forecasting is hard, particularly if you're predicting colder and snowier than normal in the east. I like reading his stuff. But he's wrong as much as he is right. Just like most other seasonal forecasters. I could go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal and offer no rationale and be right 90% of the time. But I would be 100% full of sh@t too. ?
 
CaryWx said:
Webb's been generally correct so far including the warm up we are going to see next week and maybe even the brief chance we have near month's end. That said, the jury is still out for his Fwebb progg.
Click to expand...
I don’t think Webb really took into account the IOD collapse which is screwing up the back half of winter. But for the first part, he was right
 
CaryWx said:
Webb's been generally correct so far including the warm up we are going to see next week and maybe even the brief chance we have near month's end. That said, the jury is still out for his Fwebb progg.
Click to expand...
Has he? The mid-south has had several storms including one blockbuster event along with all-time record breaking cold. Everybody in the Southeast looks to finish January with below normal temps as well. Seems like he busted for January, (and I mean no offense to him), it's just how it's played out.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Can you give me someone who has not flip flopped this winter and has been spot on? I would like to follow Him/Them and see what lies ahead for us... And I will not post anything else from JB, Oh btw his winter forecast doesn't end until March 31st then we can see how much ---- he pushed this winter!! TIA
Click to expand...
What happened to WxSouth??
 
rburrel2 said:
Has he? The mid-south has had several storms including one blockbuster event along with all-time record breaking cold. Everybody in the Southeast looks to finish January with below normal temps as well. Seems like he busted for January, (and I mean no offense to him), it's just how it's played out.
Click to expand...
Really no ill will to Webber, but his cold Feb is in big jeopardy! Just looking at upcoming teleconnections
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top