“This far out”? This far out would mean predicting early spring weather.This is the second year in a row I’ve booked a mountain vacation for the first weekend in February a long ways out. With a vacation scheduled, my focus is and was on a specific time frame. Looking back at last year, I remember the roller coaster of possibilities - models and ensembles first looked warm and rainy a couple weeks out, then showed a possible winter storm, then went back to warm, and so on. It ended up being cold and dry while I was there, probably the second coldest stretch of the winter besides the one around Christmas 22. That wasn’t presented on the models until a few days out, and while I didn’t get to see snow falling, I still took a day trip up to higher elevations and saw snow on the ground- the only snow I’d see all last winter.
I’m trying this go round not to get down or overly excited about anything this far out. While a lot of this hobby is about dwelling on the future, the eventual outcome is going to be the same no matter what the models show two weeks, one week or one day in advance. Looking at models provides entertainment for all of us, good or bad, but it’s also important to enjoy the present, whether it’s sunny or rainy, warm or cold, and especially if it’s snowy.
Yep. Need to get out and enjoy the winter weather while we have it. Ensembles agree at this point that the weather during early February looks like early Spring. The premise of my earlier post was not that the models or ensembles are wrong, but that there will inevitably be variability between now and early February, and while it’s entertaining to look at and discuss/ complain about/ declare as fact specific details of each individual run, the end product is rarely if ever exactly what is shown 240 or 300 hours out. I was just using my own experience and observation from last year to back this up, since what was being advertised by the models 2 weeks out ended up completely different from what verified in reality.“This far out”? This far out would mean predicting early spring weather.
Winter is here and now, and not much of it left barring a 1993 type event.
wow..that actually looks great
result of positive pna??
You know there have certainly been some impressive storms that occurred during a short 4-5 day window like these ensembles are showing…February 1989 comes to mind and honestly February 2014 happened after highs in the 60s on the 2/9, cold front dropped through on the 10th, smaller storm on the 11th, big storm on 12th and 13th, then back close to 50 on the 14th and then well into the 50s on the 15th.
Well the good news is that's typically what happens as we near verification because of the progressive biases on the modeling. Bad news as usual is it's still far out, but perhaps the endless heat we saw was just a blip and we're still on track.Yeah, would be cool if we could slow up things just a little bit more View attachment 142942View attachment 142943View attachment 142944
Same time frame the EPS likes also.Yeah, would be cool if we could slow up things just a little bit more View attachment 142942View attachment 142943View attachment 142944
Just need to time a vort dropping into the PNW with a quick PNA height spike. We’ve done it beforeYeah, would be cool if we could slow up things just a little bit more View attachment 142942View attachment 142943View attachment 142944
Over extended pacific jet only gets betterPosted this a few days ago…first 10 days of 2015 it was winter over and then the bottom dropped out and it was a snow blitz. Similar mjo passage in 2015 too.
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bamwx says winter comes back between feb 5 to 10th he says we aint done
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I hope BAM is closer. The 15th gives me a window of a week here.JB - leans more towards 15ish when winter comes back. But could come back in a vengeance with the cold air centered in the east this time.
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mayne i looked at an old videoBam literally said yesterday that it looks bad for winter at all.
So.... Are they a new weather model now?
The same ones who said something completely different like what… a week ago ?Bam literally said yesterday that it looks bad for winter at all.
So.... Are they a new weather model now?
BAM is 100% full of sh@tbamwx says winter comes back between feb 5 to 10th he says we aint done
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JB is 100% full of sh@tJB - leans more towards 15ish when winter comes back. But could come back in a vengeance with the cold air centered in the east this time.
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This is the funniest thing I seen today ?? so right ??JB is 100% full of sh@t
well look at his forecast snow percentages for the winter pretty good if u ask meI mean, I hate to be too critical of people who honestly try to forecast the long range. But you can't flip and flop around every other day and be wrong 10 times in a season and get high marks for accuracy. BAM is just awful....every year. And I think JB tries, but he has been more wrong that right so far this year. Just admit you blew it and move on.
They don’t do anything more intuitive than the 10 or so posters on here do, probably less actually. I feel like the guys in here that really spend the time looking through everything do a way better job really putting together an ensemble of possible pattern outcomes.I mean, I hate to be too critical of people who honestly try to forecast the long range. But you can't flip and flop around every other day and be wrong 10 times in a season and get high marks for accuracy. BAM is just awful....every year. And I think JB tries, but he has been more wrong that right so far this year. Just admit you blew it and move on.
Can you give me someone who has not flip flopped this winter and has been spot on? I would like to follow Him/Them and see what lies ahead for us... And I will not post anything else from JB, Oh btw his winter forecast doesn't end until March 31st then we can see how much ---- he pushed this winter!! TIAI mean, I hate to be too critical of people who honestly try to forecast the long range. But you can't flip and flop around every other day and be wrong 10 times in a season and get high marks for accuracy. BAM is just awful....every year. And I think JB tries, but he has been more wrong that right so far this year. Just admit you blew it and move on.
Webb's been generally correct so far including the warm up we are going to see next week and maybe even the brief chance we have near month's end. That said, the jury is still out for his Fwebb progg.Can you give me someone who has not flip flopped this winter and has been spot on? I would like to follow Him/Them and see what lies ahead for us... TIA And I will not post anything else from JB!
No sir. I can't. All I'm saying is that winter forecasting is hard, particularly if you're predicting colder and snowier than normal in the east. I like reading his stuff. But he's wrong as much as he is right. Just like most other seasonal forecasters. I could go warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal and offer no rationale and be right 90% of the time. But I would be 100% full of sh@t too. ?Can you give me someone who has not flip flopped this winter and has been spot on? I would like to follow Him/Them and see what lies ahead for us... TIA And I will not post anything else from JB!
I don’t think Webb really took into account the IOD collapse which is screwing up the back half of winter. But for the first part, he was rightWebb's been generally correct so far including the warm up we are going to see next week and maybe even the brief chance we have near month's end. That said, the jury is still out for his Fwebb progg.
Unfortunately, winter is 100% full of sh@t. Copy and paste for next year.JB is 100% full of sh@t
Has he? The mid-south has had several storms including one blockbuster event along with all-time record breaking cold. Everybody in the Southeast looks to finish January with below normal temps as well. Seems like he busted for January, (and I mean no offense to him), it's just how it's played out.Webb's been generally correct so far including the warm up we are going to see next week and maybe even the brief chance we have near month's end. That said, the jury is still out for his Fwebb progg.
What happened to WxSouth??Can you give me someone who has not flip flopped this winter and has been spot on? I would like to follow Him/Them and see what lies ahead for us... And I will not post anything else from JB, Oh btw his winter forecast doesn't end until March 31st then we can see how much ---- he pushed this winter!! TIA
Next year will be a Niña, that acts like a Nino! Just what y’all are looking for!Unfortunately, winter is 100% full of sh@t. Copy and paste for next year.
He's around talked to him tonight. He has a pay site now.What happened to WxSouth??
BS. You can't say that in any way at this point.BAM is 100% full of sh@t
Really no ill will to Webber, but his cold Feb is in big jeopardy! Just looking at upcoming teleconnectionsHas he? The mid-south has had several storms including one blockbuster event along with all-time record breaking cold. Everybody in the Southeast looks to finish January with below normal temps as well. Seems like he busted for January, (and I mean no offense to him), it's just how it's played out.
He ysed to do his pay site and throw us poor people a free bone on FBHe's around talked to him tonight. He has a pay site now.
Oh yes I can.BS. You can't say that in any way at this point.