Highly doubt there’s gonna be any wedges with 40F temps maybe low to mid 50s at the start of the warmer pattern when WAA begins, but Canada itself is about to roast. And anyways, the southeast ridge is extremely potent, I mean we’re talking 585-588 decameters over the Carolina’s, that’s upper echelon. There’s gonna be way more warmer days during that week then cooler days
I'm not speaking of next week, I'm speaking into February. Next week is a torch without a doubt.
I agree with ya man. I've never been much on anything past day 10. But you kinda roll with the mood of everyone else sometimes. It would great to make February great again. Hopefully this is the Winter we turn ole girl around.
The ensembles aren't as toasty, especially Eps and geps. I'm just in observing mode, looking for snow opportunity. We know January frozen precip chances are finished, outside some rogue novelty tomorrow morning. I have and will enjoy the cold this weekend.
It's almost like it didn't get the memo it's El Nino it's supposed to be different this year. Not more of the same bs it's been doing since 2015.
Here’s the thing though if you look at it, even with those warm anamolies, those are regions will still be soundly below freezing and not losing snowpack like we saw in December. Yes, after Monday we are going to be in a torch fest to round out the month and that’s something we’ve know for a bit… I highly doubt we see the extreme solution that the 6z GFS showed this morning as there will be plenty of clouds and rain . Once we get into early February, the pattern looks by no means slam dunk, but it’s also not guaranteed shut out either. There is still some things looking in our favor… the -NAO won’t be back for a bit, but the AO is headed back towards negative after spiking late next week, the PNA is looking to stay positive and whatever phase the MJO reaches, there is strong agreement that it becomes low amp/COD. Whether it’s in February or not until next year, it will snow again east of the Apps, so just enjoy whatever weather we have because it’s the only weather we got
Beautiful.
According to that chart, we should be torching right now... Why not?
Things don't work like they used to?
Because like some of us have said, the MJO is just one of a number of indicies. If you notice on the right side of the chart it gives an idea of the significance that the MJO plays by phase in different regions. Phase 5 and 6 don’t have a big impact on the SE unless it’s higher amped which is what we’ll see next week… as it becomes lower amped as it moves from phase 6 to 7 it has less of an impact. When I’ve been looking at the winter storms NC has had in phases 5-6 and there are some notable ones, they all occurred during a low amp MJO.
Your right but when you wrote this,
