• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February 2024

KyloG said:
True...and I agree we probably see BN temps the last 10 days of Feb but that gives us 10 days, give or take, to score for folks east of 77/85 corridor.

But until ensembles are inside day 12 it's hard to trust day 15-16. We had been eyeing the 10th as a change but that can has been kicked to the 15th....does it get kicked to the 20th.
Click to expand...
I understand. I really do think this change has legs though, but what sucks is this is likely our last shot. If we screw mid to late Feb up, we will be betting on an anomaly in March (yes, I know there has been monsters in March). This pattern change showing up has a ton of pressure to perform or this Winter is a wrap.
 
KyloG said:
12z EPS saw my cynical smacking ass comment and now is rubbing my face in positive changes...

View attachment 144376
Click to expand...
Being skeptical is part of our DNA in the SE and rightly so. A strong nino in February with MJO 7-8-1 and models consistently spitting out some cold and split flow is all we can ask for though from a long range standpoint. Let the chips fall
 
Mitch West said:
I understand. I really do think this change has legs though, but what sucks is this is likely our last shot. If we screw mid to late Feb up, we will be betting on an anomaly in March (yes, I know there has been monsters in March). This pattern change showing up has a ton of pressure to perform or this Winter is a wrap.
Click to expand...
I'll be honest, if we miss on weeks 2-4 in February it's almost certainly over. Usually mid march is the cutoff but considering we can't snow during peak climo, there's zero reason to think we can during the transition period into Spring. Now with that said, this is as promising of a 2 week period as we've had in a while around here. I think we get one solid storm at least but if we don't I think it's onto winter 24-25.
 
At the risk of being ridiculed for posting the 384hr GFS... but this is exactly what you'd expect to get with the pattern being shown on all the ensemble/long range modeling. Cross polar flow, mega high pressure pressing down, monster blocked 50/50 low, Active southern stream beginning to interact with the northern stream. This run was going to be an absolute massive winter storm for the South encompassing a large area, IMO.

But it just shows what we hopefully have to look forward to at some point Feb 15-20th.

Screen Shot 2024-01-30 at 3.45.27 PM.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah I was thinking the lobe of the pv itself, not the trough lower heights. January it got trapped in Central Canada and everything got caught out west.
Click to expand...
I do also think that we were affected by a poor phase of the MJO that did promote the SER to poke its way up east of the mountains. That shouldn’t be much of an issue in phases 7.8,1 and a strong STJ
 
griteater said:
Last one. Here are the last 11 runs back to Jan 20 of the Euro Weeklies for Feb 13-20 as the better pattern kicks in. No can kickage

View attachment 144388
Click to expand...
Just curious, would this look be clipper city for me? With disturbances coming off the +PNA ridge?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Just curious, would this look be clipper city for me? With disturbances coming off the +PNA ridge?
Click to expand...
Good storm chance for you may be as the colder pattern is kicking off in Feb 11-13 timeframe. After that I suppose it would be some cold dry, with some storm chances mixed in as things oscillate. Just some thoughts there
 
Stevo24 said:
Is this great pattern mid feb gonna be more of the same cold out west and not making it past the apps?
Click to expand...
The big thing we’ll have going for us east of the Apps when compared to a couple weeks ago is a more favorable MJO in phases 7,8,1. The MJO amped up into phases 3,4,5 two weeks and that promoted the SER that made it harder for the cold to move east. We’re in phase 7 and lower amp now and you tell this week the response has been for less SER.
 
Chazwin said:
The big thing we’ll have going for us east of the Apps when compared to a couple weeks ago is a more favorable MJO in phases 7,8,1. The MJO amped up into phases 3,4,5 two weeks and that promoted the SER that made it harder for the cold to move east. We’re in phase 7 and lower amp now and you tell this week the response has been for less SER.
Click to expand...
People discount the MJO but I personally put a lot of weight in it.
 
SNOWMANN said:
People discount the MJO but I personally put a lot of weight in it.
Click to expand...
It shouldn’t be discounted, however it should not be given more weight that the other indicies. I’ve spent some time looking into winter storms in my area and what the MJO was at the time and yes there’s been a number of big storms in what we would consider bad phases… the common thing on them though is that the MJO was low amped in those phases.
 
Last edited:
Hard to snow in 50s and 60s. Gonna have 2 weeks to score last 2 weeks of Feb and that is going to be Hard pressed. This winter is done.
1398c260e8af6f2197b4c06779a1fada.gif


Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk
 
griteater said:
Seems a bit emotionally impulsive but enjoy your summer! We'll catch you back in here next winter
Click to expand...
I will definitely enjoy Spring and Summer! I love to Fish, Golf, And just Being outdoors enjoying life. Kinda of hard to do those things when there's snow on the ground and Freezing Cold! I've never really understood people in the South Loving Cold and Snow?? It really makes no sense, that's what the North is made for. I think most in here forgets where they are

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top