• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February 2024

GEFS is quite a bit colder aloft and at the surface. we just need the low to stall and track up the coast. We finally get a strong Miller A and are missing the SE ridging. NS energy and bombogenesis would work too. so delicate a setup.
 
Crazy that the cmc and icon are so close of the closed ridge at the apex of the omega while the gfs is completely different and way easy. A mid ground here would allow the system to climb the coast and still give potential for a late phase. Honestly if we went more toward the cmc and icon or further west we'd have to start having conversations about the low being well inland
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We’re at a point in the game where we need favorable trends in the next several suites and no backtracking, this thing is closing in D7 quickly
Click to expand...
The biggest thing I’m wanting to see still is the models come back to the colder look we saw the other day… that’s still most important IMO. With the STJ as strong as it is, I still think that any system coming by on it, is going to amp up enough to give us plenty of moisture.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We’re at a point in the game where we need favorable trends in the next several suites and no backtracking, this thing is closing in D7 quickly
Click to expand...
If this were the old days, we would lose it around day 7 to (maybe) get it back around day 5. But, it's been a few years since we've had a good storm so ...
 
Here's the end of the UKMET if anyone wants to alalyze and extrapolate:
500h_anom.conus.png
 
packfan98 said:
GEFS is quite a bit colder aloft and at the surface. we just need the low to stall and track up the coast. We finally get a strong Miller A and are missing the SE ridging. NS energy and bombogenesis would work too. so delicate a setup.
Click to expand...
We always say we find new ways constantly to screw up. That's true
But we also constantly have to find new ways to thread the needle. This one here, I never recall such a fickle, crazy way to get it to work. Not the bowling ball track, but to get the cold in here. If we could just shift all the features up above us, west about 75-100 miles, we'd be golden. My biggest concern remains the cold. Hopefully the foreign guidance wins out over the gfs again.
 
NCSNOW said:
We always say we find new ways constantly to screw up. That's true
But we also constantly have to find new ways to thread the needle. This one here, I never recall such a fickle, crazy way to get it to work. Not the bowling ball track, but to get the cold in here. If we could just shift all the features up above us, west about 75-100 miles, we'd be golden. My biggest concern remains the cold. Hopefully the foreign guidance wins out over the gfs again.
Click to expand...
Where in NC are you?
 
We are running the gamut of possible outcomes here. 1. Miller A giving snow to a lot of folks here. 2. Miller B transferring energy to another low on the coast causing a lot of ice. 3. NE low moving away too quickly giving everyone south of Va a very cold rain. 3. massive phasing with the NS causing top much warmer air to be pumped in causing rain/ice. 4. Being suppressed by a much stronger cold push and limiting any snow to the immediate coasts of NC/SC. 5. Low gets sheared by the NS and giving very light precip to a few areas. 6. Phasing occurs too late to help any of us.
Take your pick, mine is door #5
 
Just went back and read RDU's overnight writeup. Nothing that we don't know, but they're not discounting anything right now.

"......The 00z ECMWF is still drier and further south, partly due to
a stronger blocking pattern and a stronger surface high in SE
Canada. For now, we kept chances of rain in the 20-40 percent range
from late Sun through Mon, with highest chances in the south along
the SC border. Precip types could be an issue if the cold NE flow
develops with the offshore low, but given the model spread, kept it
all liquid for now."
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like the last several February’s that I keep hearing about right ? No not even close View attachment 144344
Click to expand...

Expected change is moving up in time and within range of the ensembles now. Really hope we can get a period of a tall Alaskan ridge, highs coming down to meet an active stj undercutting the ridge like that. ? Be real!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top