It's incredibly satisfying to see the low so strong that it pulls the 925mb freezing line down to Florida.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
Cmc has snow in sc on way out
wow
Member
Canadian looks good.. temps are crashing NW of the sfc low as it bombs off shore. Just a little too warm verbatim
This is so close to a nuking 
a 975 off frying pay shoals? are we sure we don't need to pay attention to wind shear and SSTs
Never lied
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
CMC actually had some snow down in southern SC
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Just one more of that and something that can’t be unseen will be seen
I think it's clear what we're looking for. Still a looong way to go, but the pay window could be about to open. GFS definitely took a step towards it's ensembles, ICON went all the way and even the CMC, which was in the euro camp as far as being furthest east with northern vortex also came a long way back to this idea at H5.
Sorry, but this is not a rain-sounding on the CMC Model.
Couple sizable moves. It’s a shame we’re having to spend all this time backtracking and undoing last nights 00z suite. That was such a backbreaker but that’s the name of the game around here
It’s just nice to see on the ENS that the eastward shift with the vortex has stopped completely 
Also I mean basically the 00z GFS completely erased away a day of trends in one run, the N/S is elongated again and in better position 
NCSNOW
Member
18z Euro Control also shifted back west with northern vortex and honestly looks similar to the 00z ICON IMO.
Eh 
Hard to tell if the gefs is gonna be better or not, you can see certain things that have happened on modeling tonight occur a little but it’s still so smoothed out
NCSNOW
Member
This should be interesting here in a few
Bingo. Comparing the GEFS mean at h5 w/ GFS and ICON, it seems like the northern vortex and our southern ULL are nearly identically placed. As I've been discussing, it's that energy wrapping around the northern vortex that is the make it or break it and it's too far out / too smoothed still to fully pick up on it, but the slight eastward adjustment in the GEFS combined with a stronger, more northern southern ULL track will allow it to better interact potentially. We'll see!
This is gonna be how many runs in a row with over a 1” mean for CLT ?
Interesting trend on the CMCE 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
That's a pretty stout piece of energy heading south out of Greenland
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?
00z Euro had some odd interactions underneath the ridge early on, but it has definitely stepped towards the ICON/GFS/UKMET overall at H5 with the northern vortex regardless of where it goes from here.
You don’t see a Charlotte Special everyday
Damn 
And with that, I’m off to bed, let’s hope we see things continue later on 
iGRXY
Member
Yuck
Cary_Snow95
Member
Long term op finally starting to see the light for the pattern change
BHS1975
Member
rburrel2
Member
We hug.
The timing of the possible storm is getting pushed back, too. We were talking around the 4th and now we're looking at the 7th.
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Control run moved the 850 temp isobars all about 100-150 miles south from 0z op by hour 144.
rburrel2
Member
The bad news, we're done with snow chances after next weeks threat that's on life support until February 15th.
The good news, February 15-20 looks chef's kiss perfect for a winter storm.
The good news, February 15-20 looks chef's kiss perfect for a winter storm.
BHS1975
Member
Cross polar flow
-nao
Ridge out west
50/50 low
Beefy southern jet
If we don't score with that we suck.
rburrel2
Member
Ummm..
06z Euro control just came in a lot colder at the end of it's run??
Precip maxima is shifted a tad south but I think the upstate was about to be cooking with grease.
06z Euro control just came in a lot colder at the end of it's run??
Precip maxima is shifted a tad south but I think the upstate was about to be cooking with grease.
Wedge underdone. I’ve gotta bury my head in the sand and just believe. 12z gonna be a pants party.
rburrel2
Member
This one is far from over. I think it's pretty clear who's still in the game though. Eastern side of the NC Mountains and especially the escarpment/foothills area back to Charlotte. And possibly Upstate SC.
What we need? The northern vortex to trend a little deeper and further south, while keeping the southern wave robust and in tact enough to get the back axis in to the cold air feed on Monday.
Euro control is pretty much the playbook for this. The GFS/Euro/CMC show the same idea but are just a little too late/too warm to capitalize. (Euro did show some snow around charlotte.)
The dynamics with this storm are strong so there is upside potential if things go right. Also there will be a ripping CAD feed Monday morning so we shouldn't have to fight much of a boundary layer as 925mb temps will crash quick,(assuming the northern lobe drops in hard and heavy beforehand like the Euro control shows)
What we need? The northern vortex to trend a little deeper and further south, while keeping the southern wave robust and in tact enough to get the back axis in to the cold air feed on Monday.
Euro control is pretty much the playbook for this. The GFS/Euro/CMC show the same idea but are just a little too late/too warm to capitalize. (Euro did show some snow around charlotte.)
The dynamics with this storm are strong so there is upside potential if things go right. Also there will be a ripping CAD feed Monday morning so we shouldn't have to fight much of a boundary layer as 925mb temps will crash quick,(assuming the northern lobe drops in hard and heavy beforehand like the Euro control shows)