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Pattern February 2024

It’s the @1300m winning move
I think it's clear what we're looking for. Still a looong way to go, but the pay window could be about to open. GFS definitely took a step towards it's ensembles, ICON went all the way and even the CMC, which was in the euro camp as far as being furthest east with northern vortex also came a long way back to this idea at H5.

gem_z500_vort_us_fh180_trend.gif
 
Just one more of that and something that can’t be unseen will be seen
Couple sizable moves. It’s a shame we’re having to spend all this time backtracking and undoing last nights 00z suite. That was such a backbreaker but that’s the name of the game around here
 
Hard to tell if the gefs is gonna be better or not, you can see certain things that have happened on modeling tonight occur a little but it’s still so smoothed out
Bingo. Comparing the GEFS mean at h5 w/ GFS and ICON, it seems like the northern vortex and our southern ULL are nearly identically placed. As I've been discussing, it's that energy wrapping around the northern vortex that is the make it or break it and it's too far out / too smoothed still to fully pick up on it, but the slight eastward adjustment in the GEFS combined with a stronger, more northern southern ULL track will allow it to better interact potentially. We'll see!
 
000
FXUS62 KGSP 300533
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1233 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2024

Confidence remains low on the track
of the upper low, but a nonzero possibility of wintry precip does
exist Sunday into Monday across portions of western NC. A wetter/more
northern track could translate to warmer temps and thus increasing
probs of all rain, but on the other hand this would open us up to
instability and thunderstorms particularly over the southern zones.
Wouldn`t rule out either (or both!) at this point, Sunday and/or
Monday.
 
This one is far from over. I think it's pretty clear who's still in the game though. Eastern side of the NC Mountains and especially the escarpment/foothills area back to Charlotte. And possibly Upstate SC.

What we need? The northern vortex to trend a little deeper and further south, while keeping the southern wave robust and in tact enough to get the back axis in to the cold air feed on Monday.

Euro control is pretty much the playbook for this. The GFS/Euro/CMC show the same idea but are just a little too late/too warm to capitalize. (Euro did show some snow around charlotte.)

The dynamics with this storm are strong so there is upside potential if things go right. Also there will be a ripping CAD feed Monday morning so we shouldn't have to fight much of a boundary layer as 925mb temps will crash quick,(assuming the northern lobe drops in hard and heavy beforehand like the Euro control shows)
 
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