Icon dug another vort behind the main cold vortex. Damn. Some GFS runs have tried that but to slow
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
carolinachaos
Member
This was the GFS…it had it snowing 500 miles NW of where it verified from 6 days out.
Now if the GFS snows on us in a few we will chalk this up to a bad day.
Man that’s pretty for the NC crowd
I think I may have gotten some flakes too from that one. Hart County GA. Thats what I was wondering. Going down snow memory lane. Thanks
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
iGRXY
Member
GFS looking better so far. Ridge axis is better and further west
Oh yeah this is better 
wow
Member
0z GFS definitely trending the northern jet back west so far
In all seriousness, the ICON is a good example of why we shouldn't write off this storm. I liked what @ILMRoss was saying earlier about our margin of error being high and that we're not threading a needle with this system. There's a reason that the ensembles have not lost the storm entirely.
The synoptic setup is favorable and would only require a small change in the positioning of the SE Canada low. As I said last night, it's inevitable models are going to change in some way. There's a 50/50 chance they will trend better tonight/tomorrow. Hopefully, the ICON was a good indicator and at least keeps us on the offensive.
The synoptic setup is favorable and would only require a small change in the positioning of the SE Canada low. As I said last night, it's inevitable models are going to change in some way. There's a 50/50 chance they will trend better tonight/tomorrow. Hopefully, the ICON was a good indicator and at least keeps us on the offensive.
Really the GFS and ICON look very similar through 100 with the placement of everything.
CMC ?
iGRXY
Member
Ohhhhh yesssuhhhh
iGRXY
Member
GFS maybe about to deliver the goods
Gfs has similar energy cresting the ridge in Canada near almost over Hudson Bay like the icon
NCSNOW
Member
It runs at the highest resoloution of all globals. Right there with euro, maybe higher if memory serves me correct
The ICON pops a ridge into Greenland a bit, tilting it positively, causing the axis of the SE Canada low to extend further into the NE. That doesn't happen with the GFS to the same extent. It's certainly good to see slightly lowered heights this run- probably won't bomb like the ICON. Also looking less amped.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
GFS is much further south with the energy this run
iGRXY
Member
GFS is also less amped with the SW
NCSNOW
Member
The low isnt getting any ns energy, icon had ull a nudge colder . Doesnt phase in ns as much
Gfs
Icon
Gfs
Icon
What is that in the NE ?
better feed
the souther stream is actually trending more amplified- check out the ridge strengthening behind it; probably is why the storm is digging more. don't know if this automatically means suppressed yet
but also dude i dont know i've never seen a 500 mb chart like this these things look like jackson pollock paintings
Really would like to see the gfs and euro pinch the omega off and retrograde the closed ridge west while the southern vort moves East. The gfs does it but it's too late and really just a pretty major suppressor
Damn the energy is falling flat on its ass in the NE. CMC is really amplified, has rain all the way up to DC. Multiple areas of vorticity embedded in the ULL as well 
anybody ever seen a radar look like that? Me either. Something’s gotta give early on
CMC looks like crap so far at the SFC but it’s so much better at H5 
It’s the @1300m winning move
iGRXY
Member
Makes me think the surface will catch up to the H5 look
That's actually a textbook position for central/eastern NC snowstorms.
The cmc and icon are fairly similar with how they handle the undercut and pinching off and they both send the ridge axis NE through Hudson Bay and veer the flow back SW out of Greenland. The gfs is obviously much much different. It'll be interesting to see which way the euro leans tonight.
Rolling that closed ridge west or closing it west and allowing room on the E side for the shortwave and a potential phase sends the ceiling of this event to Pluto but it also can send the rain snow line there too
Rolling that closed ridge west or closing it west and allowing room on the E side for the shortwave and a potential phase sends the ceiling of this event to Pluto but it also can send the rain snow line there too
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
I got a snow pixel ????