• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February 2024

This gfs look with the occluded parent near the arklatex and a secondary low over the NE gulf or off the SE coast has existed in the MSLP field on the ens for days. It'll be hard to keep a single low with this rig stacking rapidly under the Canadian block almost getting into rex block territory. It's actually not a bad process for the Carolinas and NE Ga
 
This gfs look with the occluded parent near the arklatex and a secondary low over the NE gulf or off the SE coast has existed in the MSLP field on the ens for days. It'll be hard to keep a single low with this rig stacking rapidly under the Canadian block almost getting into rex block territory. It's actually not a bad process for the Carolinas and NE Ga

Yep can see it nicely this run nosing back into the Carolinas. Coincidentally it’s where the most snow is F1873F62-668B-4BAA-8860-020BB1E5CDC3.png4DFFF28D-B8CB-410C-9F14-9D4E793510CF.png9FE29782-39C2-44DF-9D85-BB475DCAE470.png
 
I count 8/20 members with at least 6 inches outside the mountains.
1707253200-ztJsyoWRHXw.png
 
Trying to get a bead on the track of that slp. miller-b? Still diving southeast when it B's off the coast even further southeast??. Not a parallel xfer or the typical ne xfer off the coast.
It’s a weird transfer, intial LP moves into the western/central SE, then new one forms along the BC zone along the coast and as the embedded vort inside the ULL wobbles south and helps force that
 
with the way the ens look it’s only a matter of time before we land a crusher GFS run imo for more areas, it’s gonna fall on that side eventually, but does it happen and trend to that and stay. We hope, and it could, but it might not
There’s definitely potential for a slow mover if the low isn’t moving SE. the blocking and confluence argue for a long duration event.
 
There’s no cutter, it’s just super amped with no cold air, cutter is it goes to our NW up into the Ohio valley/MA/NE or lakes View attachment 144146

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed how big of a mess this system is on a lot of the models? There are several centers of LPs that are spread out. Wouldn't it benefit us more to some degree if it were more consolidated and stronger with regards to cooling? It may not make a difference, but just thought I would throw this out there.
 
Pretty wild members there. No outlier skewing the mean. You legit have several big dawgs in there even through South Carolina. To me, this has been the most surprising GEFS so far, especially after 24 hours straight just about of awful trends.
 
with the h5 ull getting forced laterally as it is. we often talk about threading the needle.

kind of think this is the opposite. margin of error is much larger than usual. which is why models dragged us through glass shards today and we still have fantasy ensemble members to grasp at
 
You can tell if a run is gonna be better or not just based off this alone, what has messed up the digging the last day is a little donut aka northern stream piece of energy that spoils the ridge going poleward in time, and prevents the stuff digging farther west/into the NE, the euro just reversed that and went weaker with it, and has higher heights, if we can trend this little piece of energy somewhere else or just completely destroy it, it’s game on again 962AB24D-E7E7-4387-9129-17419708DA14.jpeg
 
You can tell if a run is gonna be better or not just based off this alone, what has messed up the digging the last day is a little donut aka northern stream piece of energy that spoils the ridge going poleward in time, and prevents the stuff digging farther west/into the NE, the euro just reversed that and went weaker with it, and has higher heights, if we can trend this little piece of energy somewhere else or just completely destroy it, it’s game on again View attachment 144175
For ex. Look at how the negative runs the little piece of energy was more prevalent, now at 18z with it being weaker, heights were lowered again to our NE D394D9AF-D46E-48C0-8B42-76DF90A42620.gifBE7273BE-6CF4-4323-81D4-AA35E0067F74.gif
 
I don’t see a cutter… ? Only thing I see is a weird sfc low pivoting N in response to the vort pinwheeling View attachment 144145
There’s no mechanism to really make it cut I don’t think. It just kind of goes nuclear and naturally pulls north a bit. Am I dumb for thinking this?
 
You can tell if a run is gonna be better or not just based off this alone, what has messed up the digging the last day is a little donut aka northern stream piece of energy that spoils the ridge going poleward in time, and prevents the stuff digging farther west/into the NE, the euro just reversed that and went weaker with it, and has higher heights, if we can trend this little piece of energy somewhere else or just completely destroy it, it’s game on again View attachment 144175
Stuff like this is why I love this place. Would have never thought of that much. I learn so much from this place.
 
For ex. Look at how the negative runs the little piece of energy was more prevalent, now at 18z with it being weaker, heights were lowered again to our NE View attachment 144176View attachment 144177
Man you are really good at this and definitely need to consider becoming a meteorologist. That little bit of energy is something I never would have looked for when looking at the H5 charts
 
Man you are really good at this and definitely need to consider becoming a meteorologist. That little bit of energy is something I never would have looked for when looking at the H5 charts
I bet @LukeBarrette and VA Tech is ready for him. Good catch @Myfrotho704_
 
Back
Top