Need to start a severe weather thread at this rate
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Gefs has the 50/50 slightly west as the storm is occurring, looks like another solid run for the same areas, but probably heavy hitters or nothing, no in between
Thanks for the clarification I was wondering what would prevent this from cutting.
Go big or go home seems the theme the last few years at least here in the lee anyway.
Looks like more hits probs went up back up pretty nicely
Also it’s not done..
Also it’s not done..
This gfs look with the occluded parent near the arklatex and a secondary low over the NE gulf or off the SE coast has existed in the MSLP field on the ens for days. It'll be hard to keep a single low with this rig stacking rapidly under the Canadian block almost getting into rex block territory. It's actually not a bad process for the Carolinas and NE Ga
packfan98
Moderator
I count 8/20 members with at least 6 inches outside the mountains.
with the way the ens look it’s only a matter of time before we land a crusher GFS run imo for more areas, it’s gonna fall on that side eventually, but does it happen and trend to that and stay. We hope, and it could, but it might not
Trying to get a bead on the track of that slp. miller-b? Still diving southeast when it B's off the coast even further southeast??. Not a parallel xfer or the typical ne xfer off the coast.
packfan98
Moderator
To add to this, there’s not a lot of freezing rain and sleet showing up this run like we’ve seen on earlier runs. This has more upper air cooling and column crashing which favors snow instead of mixed bags.
It’s a weird transfer, intial LP moves into the western/central SE, then new one forms along the BC zone along the coast and as the embedded vort inside the ULL wobbles south and helps force that
packfan98
Moderator
There’s definitely potential for a slow mover if the low isn’t moving SE. the blocking and confluence argue for a long duration event.
Is it just me or has anyone else noticed how big of a mess this system is on a lot of the models? There are several centers of LPs that are spread out. Wouldn't it benefit us more to some degree if it were more consolidated and stronger with regards to cooling? It may not make a difference, but just thought I would throw this out there.
18z GEFS it's still the same story. Members where northern stream energy gets involved explode. P01 being a prime example.
I think the last run had more big hits outside the mountains for NC. But once again it's mostly big hits or nothing.I count 8/20 members with at least 6 inches outside the mountains.
Pretty wild members there. No outlier skewing the mean. You legit have several big dawgs in there even through South Carolina. To me, this has been the most surprising GEFS so far, especially after 24 hours straight just about of awful trends.
we were able to stop the bleeding with no more eastward creep of the longwave pattern
Yeah… that’s a very strong Omega block up in Canada right now. Any low would have to either go up over it or underneath it.
Honestly it kinda looks like it might start heading back the other way. Let me dream
Looks like the trends in Canada that was causing less westward digging has halted on the 18z euro, something good to see
with the h5 ull getting forced laterally as it is. we often talk about threading the needle.
kind of think this is the opposite. margin of error is much larger than usual. which is why models dragged us through glass shards today and we still have fantasy ensemble members to grasp at
kind of think this is the opposite. margin of error is much larger than usual. which is why models dragged us through glass shards today and we still have fantasy ensemble members to grasp at
In fact it’s looking like it might swing back the other way decently
You can tell if a run is gonna be better or not just based off this alone, what has messed up the digging the last day is a little donut aka northern stream piece of energy that spoils the ridge going poleward in time, and prevents the stuff digging farther west/into the NE, the euro just reversed that and went weaker with it, and has higher heights, if we can trend this little piece of energy somewhere else or just completely destroy it, it’s game on again 
For ex. Look at how the negative runs the little piece of energy was more prevalent, now at 18z with it being weaker, heights were lowered again to our NE
There’s no mechanism to really make it cut I don’t think. It just kind of goes nuclear and naturally pulls north a bit. Am I dumb for thinking this?
Stuff like this is why I love this place. Would have never thought of that much. I learn so much from this place.
Flotown
Member
boone lookike a good place to chase??
Yes. They can’t miss this winter. They will get smoked
Man you are really good at this and definitely need to consider becoming a meteorologist. That little bit of energy is something I never would have looked for when looking at the H5 charts
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We shouldn’t have to scratch and claw for a snowflake in late January with a double-barrel low in N Florida and a long fetch of NE winds out of E Canada
rburrel2
Member
The 18z EPS looking 1000% better than 12z to me. Stronger/more robust trough and the southern wave is looking stronger too.
iGRXY
Member
This is WAYYYYY better. Ridge and confluence is further west. S/W looks better also
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
