Need to start a severe weather thread at this rateI don’t see a cutter… ? Only thing I see is a weird sfc low pivoting N in response to the vort pinwheeling View attachment 144145
Need to start a severe weather thread at this rateI don’t see a cutter… ? Only thing I see is a weird sfc low pivoting N in response to the vort pinwheeling View attachment 144145
Thanks for the clarification I was wondering what would prevent this from cutting.Again though… this didn’t cut and yes it would have a tough time doing that with the Canadian ridge to the north
Go big or go home seems the theme the last few years at least here in the lee anyway.Gefs has the 50/50 slightly west as the storm is occurring, looks like another solid run for the same areas, but probably heavy hitters or nothing, no in between
This gfs look with the occluded parent near the arklatex and a secondary low over the NE gulf or off the SE coast has existed in the MSLP field on the ens for days. It'll be hard to keep a single low with this rig stacking rapidly under the Canadian block almost getting into rex block territory. It's actually not a bad process for the Carolinas and NE Ga
Trying to get a bead on the track of that slp. miller-b? Still diving southeast when it B's off the coast even further southeast??. Not a parallel xfer or the typical ne xfer off the coast.Yep can see it nicely this run nosing back into the Carolinas. Coincidentally it’s where the most snow is View attachment 144163View attachment 144164View attachment 144165
To add to this, there’s not a lot of freezing rain and sleet showing up this run like we’ve seen on earlier runs. This has more upper air cooling and column crashing which favors snow instead of mixed bags.Yep can see it nicely this run nosing back into the Carolinas. Coincidentally it’s where the most snow is View attachment 144163View attachment 144164View attachment 144165
It’s a weird transfer, intial LP moves into the western/central SE, then new one forms along the BC zone along the coast and as the embedded vort inside the ULL wobbles south and helps force thatTrying to get a bead on the track of that slp. miller-b? Still diving southeast when it B's off the coast even further southeast??. Not a parallel xfer or the typical ne xfer off the coast.
There’s definitely potential for a slow mover if the low isn’t moving SE. the blocking and confluence argue for a long duration event.with the way the ens look it’s only a matter of time before we land a crusher GFS run imo for more areas, it’s gonna fall on that side eventually, but does it happen and trend to that and stay. We hope, and it could, but it might not
There’s no cutter, it’s just super amped with no cold air, cutter is it goes to our NW up into the Ohio valley/MA/NE or lakes View attachment 144146
I think the last run had more big hits outside the mountains for NC. But once again it's mostly big hits or nothing.I count 8/20 members with at least 6 inches outside the mountains.
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Yeah… that’s a very strong Omega block up in Canada right now. Any low would have to either go up over it or underneath it.Thanks for the clarification I was wondering what would prevent this from cutting.
Honestly it kinda looks like it might start heading back the other way. Let me dreamwe were able to stop the bleeding with no more eastward creep of the longwave pattern
View attachment 144174
In fact it’s looking like it might swing back the other way decentlyLooks like the trends in Canada that was causing less westward digging has halted on the 18z euro, something good to see
For ex. Look at how the negative runs the little piece of energy was more prevalent, now at 18z with it being weaker, heights were lowered again to our NEYou can tell if a run is gonna be better or not just based off this alone, what has messed up the digging the last day is a little donut aka northern stream piece of energy that spoils the ridge going poleward in time, and prevents the stuff digging farther west/into the NE, the euro just reversed that and went weaker with it, and has higher heights, if we can trend this little piece of energy somewhere else or just completely destroy it, it’s game on again View attachment 144175
There’s no mechanism to really make it cut I don’t think. It just kind of goes nuclear and naturally pulls north a bit. Am I dumb for thinking this?I don’t see a cutter… ? Only thing I see is a weird sfc low pivoting N in response to the vort pinwheeling View attachment 144145
Stuff like this is why I love this place. Would have never thought of that much. I learn so much from this place.You can tell if a run is gonna be better or not just based off this alone, what has messed up the digging the last day is a little donut aka northern stream piece of energy that spoils the ridge going poleward in time, and prevents the stuff digging farther west/into the NE, the euro just reversed that and went weaker with it, and has higher heights, if we can trend this little piece of energy somewhere else or just completely destroy it, it’s game on again View attachment 144175
Yes. They can’t miss this winter. They will get smokedboone lookike a good place to chase??
Man you are really good at this and definitely need to consider becoming a meteorologist. That little bit of energy is something I never would have looked for when looking at the H5 chartsFor ex. Look at how the negative runs the little piece of energy was more prevalent, now at 18z with it being weaker, heights were lowered again to our NE View attachment 144176View attachment 144177
I bet @LukeBarrette and VA Tech is ready for him. Good catch @Myfrotho704_Man you are really good at this and definitely need to consider becoming a meteorologist. That little bit of energy is something I never would have looked for when looking at the H5 charts
Here's the GEFS 48 hour trend for comparisonView attachment 144184
This is WAYYYYY better. Ridge and confluence is further west. S/W looks better also