Checking in on the February Playbook 3 days later with updates in red:February Playbook:
Feb 5: Winter storm chance possible
Feb 1-10: Low pressure replaced with High pressure in East Asia
Feb 10-15: Momentum added into the Pac Jet; Aleutian Low swells and moves east; SW trough kicks east; AK and/or GLand Blocking Increases
Feb 15-25: Southern stream becomes more active; Chances for winter storm or 2 increases
Late Feb into Early Mar: Favorable pattern continues for the most part; favorable MJO phases
Possible Outcomes: Glory Delivered! / Can Kickage / Fail Boat
Euro Weeklies Feb 6 to Mar 12 in 7-day increments
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I saw that. It's not backing down. Interesting at the moment but an outlier among the globals.Going gangbusters with the northern lobe. Love to see it.View attachment 144132
I think that shortwave coming in is at least a small piece to help pull some of the energy out of the vortex to its NE. Looks like it's originally what the euro blocked into the great lakes when it was hyper amplified and way SWLooks like less confluence on the gfs though. Dang
In my experience living in the SE, a LOT more.How many runs in a row can the NE press keep trending worse?
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I mean if we lose the low in the NE completely it would probably go north some more, hope that doesn’t happen but it’s possibleI’m corrected. You’re right…. Still a ways to go on this storm.
We really suck at this
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It doesn’t cut. It takes a further north track but it’s still moving east… then it looks like it transfers to a new low on the coast in a Miller B type set up which explains why the Foothills and Western Piedmont get pasted… there’s obviously some strong FGEN forcing to cool the column in those areas. This is actually the scenario I thought of yesterday when mets were posting the CMC and ICON that showed the low in that locationNow everyone said that the pattern and the setup prevented any cutters and this should ride the gulf. What happened?
Yeah this certainly not a cutter. Like I said if anything it’s setting up a Miller B transfer. This is honestly a solution that we could see even if the confluence improves and CAD trends stronger.I don’t see a cutter… ? Only thing I see is a weird sfc low pivoting N in response to the vort pinwheeling View attachment 144145
The 00z Spire showed what can happen when things go right with a miller BYeah this certainly not a cutter. Like I said if anything it’s setting up a Miller B transfer. This is honestly a solution that we could see even if the confluence improves and CAD trends stronger.
Let’s be honest on this one, there really is not clarity or consensus on the modeling right now and they are kinda going all over the place. Our cold feed has definitely trended the wrong way on a lot models since last night but it’s trended better on both the ICON and UK. This really kinda reminds of that first storm in January 2022 when it was about 3 days about the globals really started to come into any sort of agreement.There’s no cutter, it’s just super amped with no cold air, cutter is it goes to our NW up into the Ohio valley/MA/NE or lakes View attachment 144146
I just never seen any hp in place to the north to keep it from cutting. The last few days of gfs runs just don't reflect reality as the orientation ots. It's just looked funky this is more believable imo.Remember when yall were worried about this being too suppressed? Simpler times.
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That's def a Miller B look and as fro said if we had some additional energy sliding down out of Canada we'd be in business
Again though… this didn’t cut and yes it would have a tough time doing that with the Canadian ridge to the northI just never seen any hp in place to the north to keep it from cutting. The last few days of gfs runs just don't reflect reality as the orientation ots. It's just looked funky this is more believable imo.