• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February 2024

Best GEFS run so far for the time period around the 5th...
1707242400-8IIJXHyEkuk.png
 
packfan98 said:
Best GEFS run so far for the time period around the 5th...
1707177600-zNuUuhP1BDY.png
Click to expand...
Looks like it was still going!

Some big dogs in there and several different outcomes - I'll at least give the GEFS some kudos for having more of an appropriate dispersion of solutions for an ensemble lately than it usually does, as would obviously be expected, this far out.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-7264000.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel-7264000.png
 
I don't like seeing Virginia in the cross hairs already. I think there's a limit to how far north this can shift assuming the tpv drops down and pinches off, but either way i'd rather keep the suppressive look as long as possible. I'm now more worried about losing this storm to a too far north track opposed to suppression.
 
This week’s Pacific Jet extension is a friendly reminder to S2S forecasters and amateurs alike that an equatorward-poleward shift of the Pacific Jet ultimately has a greater influence on eastern US temperature variability than an extension-retraction. You really need both an extension + poleward shift like we saw in Dec to really get a “torch” pattern over the eastern US.

Just to reinforce this point, attached here is the 250mb vector wind mean for Dec thru Feb during moderate-strong Ninos since 1950.

Notice how the Pacific Jet actually becomes more extensive in Jan-Feb, but shifts equatorward compared to Dec. This is one underlying dynamical reason why Jan and esp Feb tend to be colder/snowier than Dec in El Niño winters

IMG_1281.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
This week’s Pacific Jet extension is a friendly reminder to S2S forecasters and amateurs alike that an equatorward-poleward shift of the Pacific Jet ultimately has a greater influence on eastern US temperature variability than an extension-retraction. You really need both an extension + poleward shift like we saw in Dec to really get a “torch” pattern over the eastern US.

Just to reinforce this point, attached here is the 250mb vector wind mean for Dec thru Feb during moderate-strong Ninos since 1950.

Notice how the Pacific Jet actually becomes more extensive in Jan-Feb, but shifts equatorward compared to Dec. This is one underlying dynamical reason why Jan and esp Feb tend to be colder/snowier than Dec in El Niño winters

View attachment 143585
Click to expand...

This extension + equatorward shift of the Pacific Jet in Jan-Feb is likely tied to the development of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) NE of Australia.

Here’s ERA-5 precip means for Dec thru Feb for the same subset of years:


IMG_1287.gif
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
already such a marginal setup, gonna be tough down here my way but that dog will hunt for somebody. Just hoping we don’t suffer through tracking another MA storm. Y’all reel it in this week View attachment 143592
Click to expand...
Yeh brotha I think this is house money in early February. Our turn comes later in February
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
already such a marginal setup, gonna be tough down here my way but that dog will hunt for somebody. Just hoping we don’t suffer through tracking another MA storm. Y’all reel it in this week View attachment 143592
Click to expand...
Everyone else's snow dreams aside, It looks like NC ski resorts could really be padding those snow totals come early February. Epic year incoming.
 
Here is the 00z Google DeepMind AI Graphcast run by ECMWF. Its solution is south this run with light precip as the 50/50 low is overpowering. Not that this will be correct of course, but they've been having some positive results from these AI models from what I've seen

Jan 27 GC 500 1.png

Jan 27 GC 500 2.png

Jan 27 GC Sfc 1.png

Jan 27 GC Sfc 2.png
 
Last edited:
Webberweather53 said:
This week’s Pacific Jet extension is a friendly reminder to S2S forecasters and amateurs alike that an equatorward-poleward shift of the Pacific Jet ultimately has a greater influence on eastern US temperature variability than an extension-retraction. You really need both an extension + poleward shift like we saw in Dec to really get a “torch” pattern over the eastern US.

Just to reinforce this point, attached here is the 250mb vector wind mean for Dec thru Feb during moderate-strong Ninos since 1950.

Notice how the Pacific Jet actually becomes more extensive in Jan-Feb, but shifts equatorward compared to Dec. This is one underlying dynamical reason why Jan and esp Feb tend to be colder/snowier than Dec in El Niño winters

View attachment 143585
Click to expand...

Webberweather53 said:
This extension + equatorward shift of the Pacific Jet in Jan-Feb is likely tied to the development of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) NE of Australia.

Here’s ERA-5 precip means for Dec thru Feb for the same subset of years:


View attachment 143589
Click to expand...
Good posts Eric. I have done some similar El Nino Pac Jet composites but never understood why the avg Feb Jet would be farther south. The SPCZ moving south makes it come to light. Thanks.
 
SD said:
That clipper is so intriguing its just far to find good cold south of the VA border
Click to expand...
I agree a lot. Definitely could see a 2-4 event up here in VA but going to be hard to find low level cold down there. Hell even temps here are hovering around the freezing mark when it swings thru.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top