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Pattern February 2024

We may not get any cold push and this thing may not work out, but the fact at 144 hours the Euro is closest to the Canadian definitely makes you step back and pause. UKMET is not a trash model, it has certainly had some poor performances over the years BUT it is also one model I can also say I have seen independently lead the way and whip all other models at H5 in the last two years for an event.

There's really no way to know which way this will go yet, but obviously the past few cycles overall aren't what we'd want to see. There's still too many players on the field, too close to prime positioning, to quit on this one though.

97c2e625-c265-4721-8daa-bd1049d8d0d2.gif
 
February Playbook:
Feb 5: Winter storm chance possible
Feb 1-10: Low pressure replaced with High pressure in East Asia
Feb 10-15: Momentum added into the Pac Jet; Aleutian Low swells and moves east; SW trough kicks east; AK and/or GLand Blocking Increases
Feb 15-25: Southern stream becomes more active; Chances for winter storm or 2 increases
Late Feb into Early Mar: Favorable pattern continues for the most part; favorable MJO phases

Possible Outcomes: Glory Delivered! / Can Kickage / Fail Boat

Euro Weeklies Feb 6 to Mar 12 in 7-day increments
View attachment 143490
Checking in on the February Playbook 3 days later with updates in red:

February Playbook (1/26):
Feb 5: Winter storm chance possible - we have a winter storm chance on Feb 4-5

Feb 1-10: Low pressure replaced with High pressure in East Asia - this is on track and is the feature that adds confidence to the long range forecast. Sfc high pressure anomalies start in Africa in early Feb and migrate east to SE Asia by Feb 10

Feb 10-15: Momentum added into the Pac Jet; Aleutian Low swells and moves east; SW trough kicks east; AK and/or GLand Blocking Increases - this afternoon's Euro Weeklies show this progresson well albeit with a couple days of can kickage. In addition, the last 5 runs of the Euro Wk have shown a weakening trend with the Strat PV beginning the 2nd week of Feb. If this occurs in conjunction with weakening at lower levels of the strat, this would help with the development of high latitude blocking (-AO / -NAO) - see image loop below

Feb 15-25: Southern stream becomes more active; Chances for winter storm or 2 increases - on track here; today's Euro Weeklies is best run to date (images below) - right in the vicinity of President's Day looks like the highest potential IMO (Feb 19-21)

Late Feb into Early Mar: Favorable pattern continues for the most part; favorable MJO phases - no changes

Possible Outcomes: Glory Delivered! / Can Kickage / Fail Boat

Jan 29 Euro Wk 500.png

Jan 29 Euro Wk 500 Feb 22.png

Jan 29 Euro Wk Strat.gif
 
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Looks like less confluence on the gfs though. Dang
I think that shortwave coming in is at least a small piece to help pull some of the energy out of the vortex to its NE. Looks like it's originally what the euro blocked into the great lakes when it was hyper amplified and way SW
 
I mean if you think about this is far from being over lol, all it takes is a few swings back the other way because the southern stream wave has trended more amped/juiced. Certainly don’t wanna see anymore trends at H5 away though in the NE, but the WNC nuking kinda shows the potential of this system even with a mediocre ass cold feed 4E57E129-5316-48A0-980B-44A46B4BE751.gif
 
Now everyone said that the pattern and the setup prevented any cutters and this should ride the gulf. What happened?
 
Now everyone said that the pattern and the setup prevented any cutters and this should ride the gulf. What happened?
It doesn’t cut. It takes a further north track but it’s still moving east… then it looks like it transfers to a new low on the coast in a Miller B type set up which explains why the Foothills and Western Piedmont get pasted… there’s obviously some strong FGEN forcing to cool the column in those areas. This is actually the scenario I thought of yesterday when mets were posting the CMC and ICON that showed the low in that location
 
I think our blocking has really sucked this year. No true, real Greenland block keeping 50/50s where we need then. That thing is gone. So storm cuts
There’s no cutter, it’s just super amped with no cold air, cutter is it goes to our NW up into the Ohio valley/MA/NE or lakes 5ACC021C-01FB-4B51-BED5-7526FFD9A7AD.png
 
I don’t see a cutter… ? Only thing I see is a weird sfc low pivoting N in response to the vort pinwheeling View attachment 144145
Yeah this certainly not a cutter. Like I said if anything it’s setting up a Miller B transfer. This is honestly a solution that we could see even if the confluence improves and CAD trends stronger.
 
Yeah this certainly not a cutter. Like I said if anything it’s setting up a Miller B transfer. This is honestly a solution that we could see even if the confluence improves and CAD trends stronger.
The 00z Spire showed what can happen when things go right with a miller B

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There’s no cutter, it’s just super amped with no cold air, cutter is it goes to our NW up into the Ohio valley/MA/NE or lakes View attachment 144146
Let’s be honest on this one, there really is not clarity or consensus on the modeling right now and they are kinda going all over the place. Our cold feed has definitely trended the wrong way on a lot models since last night but it’s trended better on both the ICON and UK. This really kinda reminds of that first storm in January 2022 when it was about 3 days about the globals really started to come into any sort of agreement.
 
Remember when yall were worried about this being too suppressed? Simpler times.
View attachment 144141
I just never seen any hp in place to the north to keep it from cutting. The last few days of gfs runs just don't reflect reality as the orientation ots. It's just looked funky this is more believable imo.
 
I just never seen any hp in place to the north to keep it from cutting. The last few days of gfs runs just don't reflect reality as the orientation ots. It's just looked funky this is more believable imo.
Again though… this didn’t cut and yes it would have a tough time doing that with the Canadian ridge to the north
 
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