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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Where were these runs the other day with our low tracking to the south? Why can’t we just blow it up over the FL panhandle? One time?
We are probably going to see a significant spike in the Western NC on the GEFS with some big hits. I've seen us trend warmer like this before but over a couple day period. We have went from one extreme to the other in 24 hours. Makes more sense though with us talking about a storm 7-8 days out & not 3-5. What's wild is just the change up of the set up in general.
Seems like the typical evolution with the models. Outside 7 days they show the potential for a good snowstorm. Then between days 7 and 4 they go back and forth between rain, snow and ice. May even lose the storm all together. Then 3 days out things start to become clear one way or the other.
With that stronger 500mb low however, you can get some dynamic cooling at the mid levels. This can really help if you’re 850s are just a degree or two off.
Nuke
iGRXY
Member
Problem is you have to get the track going really well vs already having it locked in from our Northeast. We can win with a bomb ULL and combine it with some CAD but we just will be running on a fine line
Mahomeless
Member
Flooding is going to be a BIG issue in the Carolinas with this.
GEFS stopped that bad trend at 500mb and has a slightly better cold feed so far
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- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Pretty sure thats like 4" of sleet IMBY.
12z ICON vs. UKMET. UKMet seems to have a pretty good cold air setup / feed - not strong with the wave
Oconeexman
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That looks very accurate...has the Oconee warm nose!
Gefs really liking the Piedmont/foothills /mountains/upstate of SC, I’m starting to notice on modeling that’s a highly favored area on solutions
IF this storm turns into an all out ULL rage storm, then pockets of cold air aloft are going to do some weird things.
GEFS adjustments - taller Canadian ridge; stronger wave with heights trend south in the Gulf and E of Florida; SW trend with the heights over the NEast
grit, Is there significance in the 552 opening up like that and encompassing the sw?
rburrel2
Member
The key take away here, we've curbed the horrible trend theme and now have generally improved at 12z... and we're still in the crosshairs.
Another few sets of runs/trends in our favor and this is a monster storm for a lot of folks.
Another few sets of runs/trends in our favor and this is a monster storm for a lot of folks.
CMC ens 
The closer together the southern wave and 50/50 low are the better the cold air feed will be. We can't have the 50/50 sliding out quickly as that is our source for cold air. With some larger changes, I suppose we get drop some of that 50/50 low down into the southern wave, but that seems like a longer shot at the moment.
GEFS ens (30 members) starting to get a cluster around WNC/the upstate, something that analogs favor 
G,day Mate! ACCESS-G joining the party. Since we're posting models that are showing snow, here we go. Multiply times 10 to get a 10:1 ratio of snow accumulation.
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Im just zapping through, playing catch up at lunch. But I swear the canadian is like 12-18 hours slower with wave than other modeling. I stand to be corrected, but might explain why its a shade warmer. less on cold feed. I could be off. Anyway thanks for pbp
UKMet keeps the precip suppressed to the south with a weaker southern wave, so it's a balancing act. Need the stronger damming high with stronger bowling ball wave tracking to our southLike the 12z ukmet , right
rburrel2
Member
The 12z ICON seems to have a late phase that really helps suck in colder air from the northern cut off.
That's actually what the 00z Euro showed as well it was just really weak/warm with the northern cut off and also weak with the southern cutoff... which resulted in no precip for our area, and slightly warmer temps,(but still probably cold enough for snow if the southern low was stronger).
A lot of these other foreign models are also showing the late phase.
If the 12z Euro can stick with that same idea of a late phase, but trend a little stronger/further north with the southern low(which has been the clear trend at 12z)... it could be a really good run for us.
That's actually what the 00z Euro showed as well it was just really weak/warm with the northern cut off and also weak with the southern cutoff... which resulted in no precip for our area, and slightly warmer temps,(but still probably cold enough for snow if the southern low was stronger).
A lot of these other foreign models are also showing the late phase.
If the 12z Euro can stick with that same idea of a late phase, but trend a little stronger/further north with the southern low(which has been the clear trend at 12z)... it could be a really good run for us.
End of the CMC Ens
It's probably been addressed but the gfs soundings aren't far off from a big mashed potato storm around here. Being about 1-3 degrees away at this lead is well within model error 
iGRXY
Member
severestorm
Member
GEFS 90th percentile accums
Tsappfrog20
Member
Euro looks like it will be amped even more compared to 0z. Warmer so far as well. TPV further off the NE coast is killing the cold feed early on
severestorm
Member
Cold air source doing the boot scootin boogie
By shifting the whole construct east and putting the main ridge axis over the lakes you start running the potential to lock into more of a classic CAD scenario. That said a 1025 high that is likely a sign of a polar pacific airmass and not really one that's going to drive single digit dews deep into the region