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Pattern February 2024

1707069600-Y5vZIZV9Qng.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If you ever wonder why we need a whamby thread just refer back to this 4 run trend. It’s tough out here and getting tougher by the yearView attachment 144351
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The ridge, the height, tilt, and amplitude of it, is the most important factor on the board, IMO. It's possible, I suppose, that smaller scale features are impacting how it evolves. But the trends of that feature have been less that ideal. This is somewhat of an anomalous setup to begin with, with far too many if/thens involved. Very high risk/high reward pattern that seems to be draining all of our chips so far. I wish we had a strong high pressure feeding in here ahead of the storm. That's more ideal to me, but we play the hand we're dealt.
 
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babe wake up new fly in the ointment just dropped

euro weakens the canadian ridge. smaller, weaker ridges will wander eastward; they need to be larger/stronger to stand still or even retrograde west.
trend-ecmwf_full-2024013012-f162.500h_anom.conus.gif

so no vort max can drop down because... there's a block there... the ridge... rip

given no radical changes in the cold press either it was an underwhelming run

i like some of the changes at h5 otherwise and thought this was a nice moral victory, although with the euro it would be nice to see "actual" victories. interested to see the ensembles
 
Rain Cold said:
The ridge, the height, tilt, and amplitude of it, is the most important factor on the board, IMO. It's possible, I suppose, that smaller scale features are impacting how it evolves. But the trends of that feature has been less that ideal.
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Are we, the few people still even in the hunt, not relying on it to make its own cold air at this point? I mean we joked about that a few days ago but now it seems maybe that’s the only hope since there’s no real cold air injection initially
 
The key to success stems from how far into Ontario CAN this northern stream vort can get. The farther west it digs, the more favorable of a position it will be in to phase and, ultimately, a much more expansive precipitation field and dynamically cooled system. Last Nights ICON is a clear representation of this evolution.

icon-all-namer-vort500_z500-7102000.png


Compared to the 12z ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-7091200.png


For this northern stream VORT lobe to be displaced farther west, the central US/CAN ridge is key. On the latest 12z ECMWF run, the ridge was aligned farther west through 96hrs and placed more favorably.
Afterward, you can see a much stronger system moving across northern Canada and effectively knocking down the ridging that we needed. We need this Hudson bay system to either be much weaker, or we need more Greenland ridging to push the overall ridge placement farther west.
ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_dprog-7080400.png

Basically, whatever we can do to get that secondary lobe to drop into Ontario, the more favorably this can trend
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Are we, the few people still even in the hunt, not relying on it to make its own cold air at this point? I mean we joked about that a few days ago but now it seems maybe that’s the only hope since there’s no real cold air injection initially
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It won't. The only way this is going to be cold enough for anything noteworthy is to have a partial or total merger of the ss low and the ns pv, as others have said. Otherwise, it will be too warm.
 
We all have been focused on next weeks chance and rightfully so. But there really should be optimism mid February and beyond. Every model is dead locked onto an amazing pattern we haven’t seen in years. Next week was always a lucky shot. After that a legit pattern takes hold and is better than anything we’ve had in recent memory. I was skeptical even when the weeklies were showing it but you can now see it moving forward in time on ensembles. Beautiful
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
We all have been focused on next weeks chance and rightfully so. But there really should be optimism mid February and beyond. Every model is dead locked onto an amazing pattern we haven’t seen in years. Next week was always a lucky shot. After that a legit pattern takes hold and is better than anything we’ve had in recent memory. I was skeptical even when the weeklies were showing it but you can now see it moving forward in time on ensembles. Beautiful
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KyloG said:
Its great we are smacking each other on the ass about how great the back half of Feb looks…let’s not forget how first half of Jan looked. ?

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Yeah, lows in the teens & 20's for a week in mid-Jan too. Hopefully, we can get a board wide event out of the next one.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
We all have been focused on next weeks chance and rightfully so. But there really should be optimism mid February and beyond. Every model is dead locked onto an amazing pattern we haven’t seen in years. Next week was always a lucky shot. After that a legit pattern takes hold and is better than anything we’ve had in recent memory. I was skeptical even when the weeklies were showing it but you can now see it moving forward in time on ensembles. Beautiful
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Personally, I am not as optimistic as some are about March. I just don't feel as good about the cold air. That said, the height of the western ridge being shown on the ensembles (at least for February) is promising. However, I'm not exactly crazy about the placement of it. But it's a long way out. Let's get past this first system first. :D
 
KyloG said:
Its great we are smacking each other on the ass about how great the back half of Feb looks…let’s not forget how first half of Jan looked. ?

View attachment 144372
Click to expand...
It delivered, maybe not the first week, but certainly the second. It's just that 75% of the people on here didn't get anything from it.
 
Rain Cold said:
Personally, I am not as optimistic as some are about March. I just don't feel as good about the cold air. That said, the height of the western ridge being shown on the ensembles (at least for February) is promising. However, I'm not exactly crazy about the placement of it. But it's a long way out. Let's get past this first system first. :D
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Looks consistently right on the coast and up into Alaska, not tilted over. I know it's crazy early, but whats your ideal location for the ridge?
 
Mitch West said:
It delivered, maybe not the first week, but certainly the second. It's just that 75% of the people on here didn't get anything from it.
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True...and I agree we probably see BN temps the last 10 days of Feb but that gives us 10 days, give or take, to score for folks east of 77/85 corridor.

But until ensembles are inside day 12 it's hard to trust day 15-16. We had been eyeing the 10th as a change but that can has been kicked to the 15th....does it get kicked to the 20th.
 
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