Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[BIG FROSTY]

Is it safe to say that other than the HRRR it's nowcasting time?

No! Need to ? one more icon run before nowcasting time...... ?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Anyone have access to the HRRRRRRRR. TT still doesn’t have it due to a server error

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I’m interested to see if the 00z NAM holds serve in a few minutes.

I’m thinking we see it come in a little less amped.

 

[Shawn]

Reminder, off-topic/banter/whining and especially wish casting goes here:

Misc - Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

New whamby thread for 2020!

southernwx.com

 

[FallsLake]

Still clear skies and now down to 37 degrees. Granted this thermometer is one foot off the ground, but that is the important temperature tonight.

 

[Metwannabe]

There's our HP and our system, even little CAD signature already showing up.... lady's and gents, it's almost go time

 

[Brick Tamland]

I am thinking 6 to 8 for Wake Forest northeast to Newport News, between US 1 to 85 and 258. 4 to 6 from east of Raleigh between 64 and 264. 2 to 4 from south of 85 and 40 from Durham and Raleigh to Fayetteville.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I am thinking 6 to 8 for Wake Forest northeast to Newport News, between US 1 to 85 and 258. 4 to 6 from east of Raleigh between 64 and 264. 2 to 4 from south of 85 and 40 from Durham and Raleigh to Fayetteville.

I got most of the Raleigh area in 1” to 4”. Higher north in Virginia.

 

[Metwannabe]

Down to 36 here under clear skies..

 

[Six Mile Wx]

Anyone have access to the HRRRRRRRR. TT still doesn’t have it due to a server error

 

[Metwannabe]

I am thinking 6 to 8 for Wake Forest northeast to Newport News, between US 1 to 85 and 258. 4 to 6 from east of Raleigh between 64 and 264. 2 to 4 from south of 85 and 40 from Durham and Raleigh to Fayetteville.

I'm a visual learner, I need a map

 

[MichaelJ]

Whatever NAM is showing for accumulations now I would say cut it in half and that is probably what you end up with because it usually over amps systems

 

[Oconeexman]

Anyone have access to the HRRRRRRRR. TT still doesn’t have it due to a server error

COD NEXLAB: Numerical Models

Check out COD Meteorology's Numerical Model Viewer

weather.cod.edu

 

[Metwannabe]

Whatever NAM is showing for accumulations now I would say cut it in half and that is probably what you end up with because it usually over amps systems

I tend to agree with cutting those totals but since it's upgrade it does not seem to be as bad as it used to be.... I'd say go 70% of total qpf.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Everyone says the NAM is over amping the system ... but what if it’s not .. eps and sref have been INCREASING snow totals all day now with wide swaths of 3-4 inches across NC .. I think maybe it’s not OVER AMPED all the other models are just UNDER AMPED .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The hrrr BL mixing bias is hysterical

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Note you can see the RN/SN line on the hrrr, it’s just doing what it normally does with BL temps, upper levels even around CLT (where the soundings is from is supportive of snow if you remove that mixing bias/Warm bias

 

[drfranklin]

48.9/33

 

[Ollie Williams]

FWIW the SREF went down, but more in line with other guidance.
15z

21z

 

[Myfrotho704_]

FWIW the SREF went down, but more in line with other guidance.
15z
View attachment 35758
21z
View attachment 35757

Actually looks better for areas south