Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Disco_Lemonade]

It's far more accurate if you use positive snow depth change to filter out the sleet/mix. Even the developer of Tropical Tidbits, Levi Cowan, said so himself if you follow him on Twitter. I found this method the most accurate when I was living in New England last few winters.

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Looks about right Greensboro usually does well. Lock it in.

 

[ForsythSnow]

It's far more accurate if you use positive snow depth change to filter out the sleet/mix. Even the developer of Tropical Tidbits, Levi Cowan, said so himself if you follow him on Twitter. I found this method the most accurate when I was living in New England last few winters.

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To be fair, those maps might actually suck more than the 10:1 ones. They often underdo amounts.

 

[iGrey_X]

This thing is coming in colder by the run. If I’m in the upstate and I40 corridor east and this sucker comes in just 2 hours later than modeled .... this could bust VERY high and the snow accumulation is already inching higher on every model for us currently.

 

[Jessy89]

Kuchera is suppose to be pure snowfall with mixing taken out. However, it tends to be much on the lighter side so a blend of 10:1 and kuchera in the middle is a good basis for what you see on a given map. For example, mby saw 7” that run on the 10:1 and 5” on the Kuchera so around 6” looks more reasonable.

Thank you. How you feeling accumulation wise for upstate. I’m leaning towards 1-3 playing it safe north of 85. I don’t know when that transfer to the coast will happen.


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[WxBlue]

To be fair, those maps might actually suck more than the 10:1 ones. They often underdo amounts.

Maybe it's different in the South? I do have to acknowledge these maps do struggle sometimes with bigger events.

 

[Webberweather53]

Snows all the way down to Charleston, SC on this 0z NAM run, indicative of just how cold the airmass behind this storm is going to be.

 

[NCSNOW]

Been a while since we had a M@M Storm in NC.

Murphy to Manteo

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Maybe it's different in the South? I do have to acknowledge these maps do struggle sometimes with bigger events.

I don’t think they work well down here. They constantly cut down on totals too much

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looked at soundings around CLT for fun during the middle of the storm, kinda got a look to my face, SW winds at 700mb with a warm nose, that’s close

 

[GaSnowhound]

The 00z nam run is still solid overall bringing in more snow over GA down to i20 at end of run need a little more but that trended better for my area but some far north and west got a little less

This is what I’ve been watching as well. It will be interesting to see how this trends. Would love to sneak one out.

 

[deltadog03]

Nam was very close to producing wintry weather down here as well. 36-38 ish and cold 925mb. Nice trends if your in GA. Wedge might help us out.

 

[GaSnowhound]

lol.

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I’ll take my inch or 2 and cash out rt there. Very interesting for many in metro Atl.

 

[Stormlover]

Kuchera is suppose to be pure snowfall with mixing taken out. However, it tends to be much on the lighter side so a blend of 10:1 and kuchera in the middle is a good basis for what you see on a given map. For example, mby saw 7” that run on the 10:1 and 5” on the Kuchera so around 6” looks more reasonable.

The 10:1 is also pure snowfall, it's the ratio that Kuchera is different. It's not 10:1, it changes all the time.

 

[whatitdo]

Snows all the way down to Charleston, SC on this 0z NAM run, indicative of just how cold the airmass behind this storm is going to be.

What would you say to Mike Maze's comment about the NAM?

 

[Downeastnc]

NAM sounding for PGV at start, 1PM Thursday. Very quick transition if any and solidly in the all Snow type thereafter per nomogram, we have 2-3C aloft margin on any nose.

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4PM
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yeah no worries going to be at worse rain/snow mix to quickly all snow I imagine....925 0C line is pinned to the coast and then offshore for duration no really seeing any reason to worry about the warm nose this time around.....

 

[Broken024]

Looked at soundings around CLT for fun during the middle of the storm, kinda got a look to my face, SW winds at 700mb with a warm nose, that’s close View attachment 35093View attachment 35094

Warm nose?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Looks like I may end up wrong on this storm but who knows. This is not me being weenie but if your sitting further north-west in areas not being talked about (Winston-Salem, Boone, Greensboro) you gotta like that this thing has 3+ days to keep ticking north/west and perhaps shift the max the day before directly over Winston/Mount Airy zones.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Looked at soundings around CLT for fun during the middle of the storm, kinda got a look to my face, SW winds at 700mb with a warm nose, that’s close

Well at least you know if it is cold enough for all snow, it's probably going to be heavy with very moist southwesterly air flooding into the mid levels.

 

[deltadog03]

Snows all the way down to Charleston, SC on this 0z NAM run, indicative of just how cold the airmass behind this storm is going to be.

I agree. And to the GA posters I wouldn’t sleep on this. We might get some wedge help. Won’t be as snowy as NC.

 

[$alt]

talk to me shawn. what you thinking?

30% chance right now of seeing some flakes. i want to see the 3km over these 32/12km nam and more ensemble data. It's hard around here. where does the front actually stall? where do it rise to? nobody has a clue. This time of the year, we want a weak low tracking across north central florida. this one is tricky for the midlands.