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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Jessy89 said:
Thank you. How you feeling accumulation wise for upstate. I’m leaning towards 1-3 playing it safe north of 85. I don’t know when that transfer to the coast will happen.


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I’m going to hold off on accumulations until tomorrow after the 12z runs and give a first call map. I’m going to try and have a winter weather and snowfall probability for The southeast and upstate in particular in a few minutes.
 
Shaggy said:
So where would the band form? Would it form between the barbs running east to west along that area of greatest frontogensis?
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Somewhere in there, frontogenesis like that favors thumping, hard to say exactly where but that supports heavier rates somewhere
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Somewhere in there, frontogenesis like that favors thumping, hard to say exactly where but that supports heavier rates somewhere
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It's of interest to me because that's exactly where I am. Barbs to my close south coming up from the south barbs barely north coming from the north. Looks like that runs right down highway 264 from Raleigh to greenville. I know that will shift north or south as we get closer but it's basically right over me on this run.
 
Brick Tamland said:
WRAL still only showing the Euro on Facebook. I asked met Mike Maze about the NAM, and his reply was...

I don't trust the NAM...it's an outlier...I am not going to advertise something that is way far and above what everything else is showing.
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His forecast video on their website is very cautious, snow possibility is mentioned and as you stated leans heavily on the EURO. He does warn to stay tuned as it could change.
 
For chasing, I’m actually expecting to see more changes and I’m looking at the Asheboro to Greensboro corridor. I think the front tongue will hit sooner and harder plus combined with a little luck someone is gonna see 6-12” where some overlapping occurs with the secondary thump.
 
deltadog03 said:
Nam was very close to producing wintry weather down here as well. 36-38 ish and cold 925mb. Nice trends if your in GA. Wedge might help us out.
Delta, do you blv the NAM is onto anything re I-20 (S metro) and areas to immediate south?? I’m in Social Circle and we can sometimes do well w strong CAD. I’ve been cautiously wondering if NAM would bring the cold once we get into its wheelhouse but remain circumspect following recent globals. I’d seen some ensemble support for Ga down thru roughly I-20 but those members were certainly not the majority. Does NAM still verify w cold bias or has that been corrected recently? Thanks and I’m pulling for you central ga folks too!! We’re due man!!!
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whatitdo said:
What would you say to Mike Maze's comment about the NAM?
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Personally, I think they just always go with whatever shows the least, and up the totals if they need to while the storm is unfolding. That way they can say they were right no matter what. If it was the reverse and the Euro showed the most, he would probably say it was an outlier. But I think it does a disservice to the public to just present one model solution and not the other possibilities.
 
ICON looks a little slower than the NAM, but all in all, the two are pretty close. Would be nice to get the GFS and EC on board. As an aside, this is the first time this season I will stay up for the majority of the 0Z suite--hard to imagine it's taken this long. Good luck to everyone.

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