Could foreshadow the 00z NAM coming in a little less amped, IMO. We’ll see soon enough.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Six Mile Wx
Member
Glad someone focused on that high and our cold source!
BackThePack
Member
HRRR is not very excited about the QPF totals
Yep. Here in myrtle beach it doubled from .6 inches to 1.2 inches. People down here would be thrilled to have an inch of snow cover the grass
campamy
Member
What are the thoughts in the Charlotte area? It's not mby, my sister just moved there and I have no clue about that area at all and haven't had the time to start looking it up yet.
Looking good
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Honestly the HRRR has been terrible lately, that last winter storm that did well in GA even being a meso model underdid the amount of moisture that moved into the CLT area, and had all rain for me with temps around 43-46 when in reality, I had ALL SNOW with temps around 37-40, and it wasn’t heavy QPF
Cary_Snow95
Member
Nam slightly flatter out to 6
campamy
Member
Back in the day it was a joke to get Nam'd, so it's amazing at the turn around if it continues to keep performing.
Love the hrrr continues to show the rain snow line south of clt.
We want to stay in that clear pocket as long as we can overnight. But looking at that loop we may be cloudy again by midnight.Looking good
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MichaelJ
Member
Currently in W-S 43/28 with clear skies
Avalanche
Member
Those .2 and .3 liquid amounts wont cut it. Lets see how far off they are as the runs keep coming in.
NAM forecast from 18z vs reality at 00z
00z NAM looks a little north with the precip/quicker at hr 12, but I’m splitting hairs.
Yeah not sure that will matter too much and I say that knowing I've got a chance to stay clear a little longer lol. Down to 34 now and dropping like a rock
Yeah precip in western NC/ upstate SC by 8 am
edit: might be a tick warmer too early to really tell though
Looks like it may be a touch colder this run
Cary_Snow95
Member
Temps about 2 degrees cooler @ 12 for the triangle on the NAM compared to 18z
That’s what I need! Little more northwest push with the moisture
NAM is def colder, at least in the upstate. 6 degrees colder imby at hr 15
iGrey_X
Member
Still has DP too high compared to reality in the upstate and only has temperatures dropping a handful of degrees to 41-42 when we are already down to 46-47 degrees. These small issues compared to reality makes all the difference in the world.
Colder!
Once again there will be no lack of moisture on the NAM, let's see how far the warm nose makes it NW this run
This looks like it’s going to be another yuuuge run. Looking good so far, precip maybe a little further north and a little colder.
Thor
Member
Low pressure further South
And once again northern NC looks to get a solid hit, can't deny it's consistency i
Warm nose still there but erodes an hour quicker. All snow by 4 in clt metro. Local future cast models showing snow by 1 so will be easy to tell tomorrow morning which will verify.
Snowflowxxl
Member
49/46 in Smyrna. Expecting more flooding tomorrow! ?
This is definitely going to be a better run, colder and that warm nose might be a touch south...
Looks like a quicker burst but more intense
BackThePack
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Warm Nose a good bit south this run. Comes up and tickles Wake County before getting pushed south by 2pm
Cary_Snow95
Member
Allows for a weaker warm nose. Pick your battles
Yep was just about to post that amounts are less but still a decent hit
BackThePack
Member
Im not complaining... Im near Wake/johnson/Harnett county lines. After seeing the HRRR come in dry, this doesnt surprise me and I think this will be a trend.
NAM kuchera so far
iGrey_X
Member
Even the 3K has those DP too high as well. I think this is the warning shot that is going our way for once. The HRRR has the Rain/Snow line running through the central upstate in a West to East motion and the NAM is missing the drier and colder push earlier on but is trending further south with the cold air. That’s huge in my opinion.
Probably more realistic tbh
Snowflowxxl
Member
I would much rather deal with cooler temps but get less precip than thread the needle and have to worry about temps the whole time but get dumped in precip.