Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Chazwin]

Really strong coastals that are tucked in close to the coast tend to deliver backend snow to Charlotte, but the problem is those types of storms are typically preceded by a lot of cold rain or significant mixing problems, Charlotte and the rest of the SW piedmont rarely does well at all with coastal lows. What we usually excel at is an overrunning event or upper low, and sometimes a very deep & cold CAD will also work wonders.

December 2010 imo generally synthesizes how the snowfall distribution typically looks in these kinds of storms. Snow favored in the mountains and far western piedmont with extremely strong coastals, I-95/US HWY 1 corridor and points east tend to be favored the most with weaker, offshore coastals like the one forecast this week

View attachment 35072

I will say most of the 5 inches from that storm in Monroe fell after the coastal transfer and we got in on the deform band. We actually only had about 1/2 an inch from the overrunning portion as we waited on a changeover

 

[ForsythSnow]

I would suspect early on that the NAM is worse through 24hrs. Hopefully, I'm wrong.

I don't think so. So far it looks like it's going to come in a little more amped.

 

[MichaelJ]

I don't think so. So far it looks like it's going to come in a little more amped.View attachment 35073

Yes but the more amped up it becomes the more mixing issues most of our area will have

 

[Ollie Williams]

I don't think so. So far it looks like it's going to come in a little more amped.View attachment 35073

it's not digging enough over Idaho. The two waves look more spread apart.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

it's not digging enough over Idaho. The two waves look more spread apart.

yeah there not as close as they were last run

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

it's not digging enough over Idaho. The two waves look more spread apart.

definately a trend towards desperation there on the NAM

 

[WeatherNC]

Christmas / Boxing Day 2010 was dependent on a phase which guidance picked up 240-120hrs out, lost inside day 5 and brought back to some extent inside 72. The early DGEX runs were weenie blotches. We really did not know the phase was going to happen until RAP runs inside 18hrs indicating a late hookup over the FL panhandle. Classic late blooming Miller A with a MA skip. Much different setup this go round.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[ForsythSnow]

it's not digging enough over Idaho. The two waves look more spread apart.

Have to wonder what it'll mean down the road. Either it hurts or helps.

 

[Ollie Williams]

definately a trend towards desperation there on the NAM
View attachment 35075

although 06z was a dud and 12z was a boom. It may be another feature that led to the overunning.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The one positive with less digging is more trough interaction. Might actually help to swing the energy down

 

[Ollie Williams]

I don't think it looks bad at hr 45. Maybe a less amped version of 18z?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I don't think it looks bad at hr 45. Maybe a less amped version of 18z?

Yeah thinking the same thing. The trough is oriented even better this run. If you run a loop this is just a continuation of the same trend

 

[ForsythSnow]

Coming in colder aloft so far. Might be good.

 

[Ollie Williams]

It's a bit less amped, but the energy over MN is stronger and more positively tilted, which I think helped 18z be a beast.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Definately coming in a touch flatter but Vort maps still look pretty juicy

Visual

 

[SnowNiner]

Looks like less precip at 57 to me.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Probably gonna be another good run, one nice frontogenic band

 

[WeatherNC]

We can split differences on the 0z NAM beyond 48hrs, but it's noise top down, 200-500, compared to previous runs. If anything the 200-300mb jet streak is trending stronger.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Looks like less precip at 57 to me.

It might appear that way, but from what I can tell, they're pretty close. The cold is blending south though vs 18Z so it might turn out better.