I am in the western part of the county. Matthews/Indian Trai area. I would love to see us get on the deform band. I am trying to recall the last time we were under one. Maybe you can provide more details on that. It would be nice to see some of the short-range modeling come in colder tonight. And I would love to see our DP's drop. Currently at 36.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
I am in the western part of the county. Matthews/Indian Trai area. I would love to see us get on the deform band. I am trying to recall the last time we were under one. Maybe you can provide more details on that. It would be nice to see some of the short-range modeling come in colder tonight. And I would love to see our DP's drop. Currently at 36.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Mike Maze at WRAL said they are expecting less than 10:1 ratios and going with the GFS and Euro ensemble means for their totals. Just think it is crazy they don't even take the short range models into account now.
Snownut
Member
I'd be willing to bet pickens and oconee counties will not be left out like this shows
iGrey_X
Member
I think the NAM is amping things up a little too much. I truly think the warm nose will happen but it won’t be as stout or last quite as long.
The funny thing about that is more times than not, if the warm nose shows up in any way with the NAM, it has generally been known to verify stronger and more stubborn to erode. @Rain Cold fix this
Ugafanofweather
Member
Yeah I've noticed the NAM is really good with warm noses
I wish I could. Never ever ever ever, and the Rock means EVER bet against the NAM warm nose.
Jessy89
Member
The warm nose is what hurts the upstate with accumulations. Anyone that sees 2 or more inches got lucky in my opinion. I work in school cafeteria in Pickens county. 2hr delay I have to go in normal time. I’m really hoping we get enough to keep schools closed Friday. 2hr delay would just be a headache
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The two that come to mind right off are December 2010 and January 2018
That is not snow in ATL. DGZ is way too dry for snow. Low deck moisture = drizzle.
NCSNOW
Member
Good. NEWS. Like a blanket being peeled back, clouds are clearing off to the east. Perfect timing
No snow for you
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There is always a warm nose. Always.
If I were in Vegas, I probably wouldn't bet against it, either. But we can hope, pray, and dream that for once it's wrong.
Stephenb888
Member
Everyone in upstate sc from Anderson up will have 2+ inches. The rain/snow line will be down in abbeville/greenwood area. The temps will drop much faster than the models are saying.
They have the potential to put down some surprises. Remember the surprise deform that put down around 20” from Mt. Airy to Roanoke in Fab Feb 2014?
Cold chasing moisture is never a good scenario East of the Mountains in my experience. Cold air in place is much better for SC, that I do know.
Snownut
Member
Dont see that happening, if you are not in Greenville, Pickens, or spartanburg you not seeing 2" folks in those counties could see that
Jessy89
Member
Even then probably from a line from Pickens travelers rest north.
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Snownut
Member
I see the snow line running HWY 183 and above there
BackThePack
Member
I dont know, I recall rain to snow (cold chasing moisture) being some of the best storms in my NC history. Snow to rain (precip over running cold air in place) seems to erode and never is fun. I'd take rain trans to snow any day times 100 over the inverse.
iGrey_X
Member
Models have painted 2-5 across eastern Greenville, Spartanburg, and Cherokee counties consistently l. They’re likely going to see that much and if the warm nose isn’t quite as stout from a slightly less amped NAM, then that’s really going to make it interesting.
iGrey_X
Member
I don’t know if this will change much but we do have a break in the clouds and open skies as the sun set here in northern Spartanburg county which can only help radiational cooling.
Wx4life
Member
I'm in Hemby Bridge and I've thought the same thing, but you would have the better chance than us on the Western end of the County.
Yeah in both of those cases the way the band pivoted, it kept us snowing a few hours longer than the western part of the county. The 2000 Crusher is also a decent example. The snow had tapered off I’m CLT and was still going strong in Union, Stanley, and SE Cabarrus
Six Mile Wx
Member
Some cleaning creeping in, wonder if it’ll help get our temps down.
It should. They'll rebound some when clouds roll back in.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
44/22 here under mostly clear skies.
Check out the dew points dropping like a rock in NW NC. Mt. Airy has a DP of 8. That's the "dry" air mass which will bleed into NC overnight setting the stage for the over riding moisture.
forecast.weather.gov
National Weather Service
forecast.weather.gov
We need some of your dewpoints down this way. DPs still in 30s Raleigh and south. That is the critical piece I will be watching to get an idea of how well the cold air is working in. Obviously not too far to our NW
Dew point has dropped 5 in the past 45 minutes here, now at 36
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I have 45/35 now.
DP has been around 35 all day. Still is
Here’s the latest RGEM
ajr
Member
DPs up north verifying a little lower than NAM modeled:
iGrey_X
Member
49/30 here about 5 miles from the NC/SC border here in Spartanburg county. Breaks in the clouds and we have a NE wind around 5-7 mph already showing up
Rgem gets excited with the deformation band. I'd take this in a second. 
Shaggy
Member
A little off topic, but something to note about this storm is that it’s happening with the teleconnections pretty terrible across the board. It just goes to show you can luck into some snow in almost any pattern.
iGrey_X
Member
The NAM has DP around here at 40 and it’s currently down to 30 already so this is very interesting to say the least.