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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

I decided to take a gamble and head back home to Fayetteville for this storm instead of playing it safe in Charlotte. The latest EPS basically summarizes my thoughts on this here in the Sandhills, tons of inter-member variance with large members = go big or go home.
I firmly believe that if it’s cold enough in/around Fayetteville, we’ll probably get plastered with heavy rates

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bnathanb1982 said:
Yeah someone always seems to get shafted between the transfer....Which low determines where there will possibly be a lull in the moisture?
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That someone who gets shafted during the coastal low transfer is almost always the southwestern piedmont of NC and the 85 corridor in upstate SC
 
Webberweather53 said:
I decided to take a gamble and head back home to Fayetteville for this storm instead of playing it safe in Charlotte. The latest EPS basically summarizes my thoughts on this here in the Sandhills, tons of inter-member variance with large members = go big or go home.
I firmly believe that if I t’s cold enough in/around Fayetteville, we’ll probably get plastered with heavy rates

View attachment 35062
Click to expand...

What are your thoughts for far NE NC?
 
bouncycorn said:
FWIW, Atlanta friends, at this range with the last system, all models had snow/wintry precip confined to the higher elevations of the NGA mountains. It wasn't until the nam3 came into range that the temps started rapidly dropping south. Plenty of time for temperatures to change the needed 2-4 degrees.
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Yeah me and the wife drove up to Hiawassee in the mountains of north Georgia to see a little snow because they were only calling for a dusting for Cherokee county and up to a inch up in the mountains and that Friday night when we got up there my phone weather alert went off and upgraded Cherokee county up to the mountains to winter storm warnings when I don’t even think we had a winter storm watch before that?..we drove back down the next day and blue ridge had 6 inches on the ground so I think this system will surprise folks again
 
Webberweather53 said:
That someone who gets shafted during the coastal low transfer is almost always the southwestern piedmont of NC and the 85 corridor in upstate SC
Click to expand...

If the upstate I85 north gets snow. It will come before the transfer likely Thursday evening.


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bnathanb1982 said:
Yeah someone always seems to get shafted between the transfer....Which low determines where there will possibly be a lull in the moisture?
Click to expand...

700 mb frontogenesis is a good hint where secondary band will lay down the snow so it's a bit easy to see where the "screw zone" is setting up during the pivot of storm.
 
bouncycorn said:
FWIW, Atlanta friends, at this range with the last system, all models had snow/wintry precip confined to the higher elevations of the NGA mountains. It wasn't until the nam3 came into range that the temps started rapidly dropping south. Plenty of time for temperatures to change the needed 2-4 degrees.
Click to expand...
I was looking at a few members earlier (4/12) that were good all way to I-20 in Ga and likely even more Lanier north. It’s been so heavily modeled towards NC/TN by globals but I’m holding out hope for it to have a better handle on colder temps for our area.
 
WxBlue said:
Why even use that product... having a product to make aggressive forecast is exactly what it's supposed to be for.
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Snowflowxxl said:
This is going to look incredibley stupid in 3 days.
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Looks like this map only goes through Thursday evening. I’m guessing the next update tomorrow morning will beef things up.
 
Jessy89 said:
If the upstate I85 north gets snow. It will come before the transfer likely Thursday evening.


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It’s going to have to. Once this thing transfers to the coast it’s over for the upstate. Sometimes as it consolidates it will pull moisture back over our viewing area but by then it’s spotty.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s going to have to. Once this thing transfers to the coast it’s over for the upstate. Sometimes as it consolidates it will pull moisture back over our viewing area but by then it’s spotty.
Click to expand...

Chris justice sounds optimistic at least. And we got the nam going for us


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s going to have to. Once this thing transfers to the coast it’s over for the upstate. Sometimes as it consolidates it will pull moisture back over our viewing area but by then it’s spotty.
Click to expand...
It’s not even known that it will transfer at this point. That has really just remotely started showing up today.
 
18z EPS
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