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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Poimen said:
You can tell the GFS is not depicting the same amount of overrunning over the NW piedmont as the NAM is seeing, thus the much lighter totals west of HWY 1. @Webberweather53 I hope you're right about the NAM!
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If things are working like they should with long range and short range models, it should be right. Long range picks up on the idea of a system, and then as we get closer it hands off to the short range to figure out the fine details. People say all the time how the NAM is great and picking up on the warm nose when the globals don't show it. I think we should have just as much faith in it when it shows a good storm, too.
 
Storm5 said:
I-20 never had much of a chance . If you want to see snow out of this system you will need to head north


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Yeah.....I hoped against hope reality was staring us in face whole time though. Good luck to those further north.
 
Bit unusual to see a state wide hard freeze after a snow event. 1-3” could lead to travel issues for 2 to 3 days with refreezing issues. Friday morning looks chilly. I assume lots of winter weather advisories post storm for NC, upstate SC and north Georgia.
 
That NW trend on the NAM and Goofy is concerning though. I'd like to hit the brakes on that sleet and cold rain would be a slap in the face imo.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
As much as I want to believe it, take the weather nerds sim radar with a block of salt. Unless you enjoy being burnt. I’ve seen it show a CAD hanging on down into south GA before...
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I'm sure its overdone down that way. It does appear the soundings do support snow in the upstate instead of rain. But I believe the nam with a slight warm nose here to overcome. So sleet to snow favored imo for us.
 
We have warm nose issues to iron out, but we also have to take in account surface as well. Even if those that manage to be all snow, we have to question how long it will take and how much snowfall will be rendered til surface temps allow for any accumulations to be accrued.
 
Avalanche said:
We have warm nose issues to iron out, but we also have to take in account surface as well. Even if those that manage to be all snow, we have to question how long it will take and how much snowfall will be rendered til surface temps allow for any accumulations to be accrued.
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If rates are heavy enough, then not long to overcome surface temps
 
WxBlue said:
Catching up on everything this morning. So bizarre the Euro is on an island by itself... ICON slightly Euro-like. I understand the Euro doesn't "win" every event, but it's a force of habit to NOT like the set-up until Euro/EPS gets back on the board.
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Exactly, if you go by verification scores, long term history, and quality of model physics, you have to question how you can discount the EURO. Doesn't mean it can't be wrong but the percentages favor it and the EPS for sniffing things out. Personally I am hoping the NAM is right for the boards sake but I will not be placing any money on it.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
As much as I want to believe it, take the weather nerds sim radar with a block of salt. Unless you enjoy being burnt. I’ve seen it show a CAD hanging on down into south GA before...
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It's weird because at times models seem to underdo CAD a lot of times. Now, I have rarely seen in down to south GA, but I get your point.
 
MichaelJ said:
Exactly, if you go by verification scores, long term history, and quality of model physics, you have to question how you can discount the EURO. Doesn't mean it can't be wrong but the percentages favor it and the EPS for sniffing things out. Personally I am hoping the NAM is right for the boards sake but I will not be placing any money on it.
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Except Webber posted earlier how the Euro has been off since this summer with the amount of precip here versus the NAM.
 
ryan1234 said:
It's weird because at times models seem to underdo CAD a lot of times. Now, I have rarely seen in down to south GA, but I get your point.
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There have been many times when wedges have held on down here in SE GA. It isn't that unusual.
 
GaWx said:
There have been many times when wedges have held on down here in SE GA. It isn't that unusual.
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Oh, I know. It's just not as common down there as it is further north. Let's hope the GFS is onto something. For once, I would love to not have to worry about that d*** warm nose. Hearing that word is like a metal rake on a chalkboard!
 
CMC and ICON seem very similar at 12z..both say the coastal is the main feature here..a bit of a upstate/interior NC skip before the coastal forms..not even close to as robust as the NAM/GFS..We’ll see who the Euro sides with..honestly doubt we’ll see a big jump by the Euro towards a beefy solution at 12z
 
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