Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Myfrotho704_]

Every single member now has something, starting to get excited

 

[Webberweather53]

Knowing the stereotypical GEFS biases, folks in RDU and the northern coastal plain have to absolutely love what they're seeing atm.

 

[Jon]

Knowing the stereotypical GEFS biases, folks in RDU and the northern coastal plain have to absolutely love what they're seeing atm.

Agreed. We are 4 days out and in a good spot.


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[Jessy89]

So basically the trends just begun. This could continue to trend positively for most of the Carolinas


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[NorthGaWinter4]

The GEFS even looks damn good for north Ga

 

[Snownut]

Knowing the stereotypical GEFS biases, folks in RDU and the northern coastal plain have to absolutely love what they're seeing atm.

This is looking like one of those storms that could turn out to be a Storm for most of SC and NC

 

[jackendrickwx]

Some of these members really look like the NAM... View attachment 35041

Great agreement here for everything east of CLT. Does seem a bit odd to me that some have the cold press way south while others keep that little ridge over GSP

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Knowing the stereotypical GEFS biases, folks in RDU and the northern coastal plain have to absolutely love what they're seeing atm.

How about Columbia SC? Models has been trending colder for CAE throughout the day.

 

[Jessy89]

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[Ollie Williams]

GEFS P-type

 

[malak05]

Most of us in GA and Alabama really need to see this thing jog about 75-100 miles south on temps

 

[Ethan80963]

Knowing the stereotypical GEFS biases, folks in RDU and the northern coastal plain have to absolutely love what they're seeing atm.

This might be a stupid question but why would the mean take such a sharp cut in the central upstate? It seems very weird to me

 

[Mitch West]

Some of these members really look like the NAM... View attachment 35041

Some CAE hits, idk about y’all. But is it fair to say this thing has trended colder? I mean sheesh

 

[Webberweather53]

This might be a stupid question but why would the mean take such a sharp cut in the central upstate? It seems very weird to me

A few reasons for that, some of the initial low-level cold air gets blocked by the mountains, there's downsloping which could hurt the I-85 corridor from GSP to CLT and the formation of the coastal low leads to large-scale subsidence west of US HWY 1, shutting off the overrunning snow in areas like Charlotte & Greenville-Spartanburg.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Definitely been a NW trend on the gefs, can actually see a in situ CAD response with that -6 850 line

 

[$alt]

If this continues, and cooler temperatures do prevail, the area of Florence could see something historic.

 

[Downeastnc]

Agreed. We are 4 days out and in a good spot.


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Really 3 days out....by this time Thurs it will be snowing....so just inside 72 hrs at this point.

 

[Ollie Williams]

I'm curious to see how the SR models progress throughout the week. We've seen the NAM with the big snow because of the strong F-gen and WAA. Curious if F-gen and WAA are something globals are flat out just underestimating because of their resolution and the SR models will agree with the NAM going forward, not to an extreme extent, but at least having more precip/snow. Thoughts?

 

[WxBlue]

Yeah, Raleigh, Fayetteville, and most of ENC are sitting pretty right now. I'm really happy to see what we have right now.

 

[iGrey_X]

I'm curious to see how the SR models progress throughout the week. We've seen the NAM with the big snow because of the strong F-gen and WAA. Curious if F-gen and WAA are something globals are flat out just underestimating because of their resolution and the SR models will agree with the NAM going forward, not to an extreme extent, but at least having more precip/snow. Thoughts?

I’d say that’s a really good thought. One reason why I’m not worried about our the upstate gets a little lower on things such as the GFS and GEFS. NAM does a lot better with temp profiles and overall boundary layer stability and air flow.