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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Poimen said:
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This could still workout, maybe...

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This is going to be one of those storms where folks that see frozen precip especially upstate, will see it all but maybe ZR.
 
Bsud said:
This is going to be one of those storms where folks that see frozen precip especially upstate, will see it all but maybe ZR.
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The ZR chance is quite low in this type of setup. Sleet, sure, but the surface isn't too great for pure ZR for the most part. Black Ice, very much so.
 
Now casting time. Things to watch for that matter A LOT. 1) how much do north-east winds eat away at precip esp Triad/foothills 2) arrival time, quicker for heavy amounts of snow, delayed could cause some white rain particularly east of i77 3) rates are gonna matter otherwise daylight hours will feature lots of melting and slush
 
SimeonNC said:


Robert from WxSouth gives his opinion on the storm, mentions the possibility of thundersleet in some areas? How likely would that be?
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With that jet overhead I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see thunder snow and thunder sleet in bands. The biggest thunder sleet I’ve ever been through was January 1996 and it was unbelievable how heavy it was and how quickly it piled up.
 
Be prepared to potentially have to login to the forum in the near future to continue reading. The traffic spikes are interesting, but starting to eat some resources. If you don't have an account, it's free and don't even need to verify email. We just manually approve them.
 
I think I have finally convinced myself that the higher totals will be closer to reality. However, as is often the case in these parts, we are walking a fine line with a number of offsetting positives/negatives. But in the end I think the positives will outweigh the negatives across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain, with totals ranging from 2-4" across the Triad/NW Piedmont; 3-6" for RDU/NCNTCL Piedmont; and 4-8" for the NE Piedmont/Northern Coastal Plain over to ECG. Most locations south of HWY 64/264 will have some mixing issues, reducing snow totals in these regions.

That's my take for what its worth. Good luck to everyone.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
For people that live around CLT, Areas north of CLT like concord/kannapolis/huntersville/Cornelius/
LKN/Salisbury is probably gonna cash out being right north of the IP and In the heaviest part of the snow band
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and I still wouldn’t dismiss SE parts or the metro area like Monroe to Albemarle getting in on the deform band tomorrow night as the coastal really ramps up
 
I just had a chance to look over to data and the board. Needless to say, I still can't believe how much inconsistency the models are still showing, less than 24 hours away! It really is crazy. Having said that, I do still feel like the NAM is a bit overamped, which it is in most cases. This storm is undoubtedly going to be a nowcasting system. There are literally no watches to speak of and that speaks volumes of the amount of uncertainty.
 
Is Upstate S.C. pretty much out of this now? I’m hoping we will get a bigger surprise like a few weeks ago.
 
Poimen said:
I think I have finally convinced myself that the higher totals will be closer to reality. However, as is often the case in these parts, we are walking a fine line with a number of offsetting positives/negatives. But in the end I think the positives will outweigh the negatives across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain, with totals ranging from 2-4" across the Triad/NW Piedmont; 3-6" for RDU/NCNTCL Piedmont; and 4-8" for the NE Piedmont/Northern Coastal Plain over to ECG. Most locations south of HWY 64/264 will have some mixing issues, reducing snow totals in these regions.

That's my take for what its worth. Good luck to everyone.
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I like your take Lol... honestly I'm there with you on that. If I were to draw a map that's what it would look like. Going to be fun and agonizing Thursday night looking at CC and watching that line march NW though
 
Stephenb888 said:
Is Upstate S.C. pretty much out of this now? I’m hoping we will get a bigger surprise like a few weeks ago.
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Nobody is out of the event, due to wrap around moisture. We are monitoring how amplified the system will become, which will bring warm air with it, but set up an impressive changeover zone to heavy snow.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
For people that live around CLT, Areas north of CLT like concord/kannapolis/huntersville/Cornelius/
LKN/Salisbury is probably gonna cash in being right north of the IP and In the heaviest part of the snow band
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I hope so. But the latest nam trend has been worrying me. I'm afraid the warm nose is going to keep climbing. But I think my biggest concern is still surface temps. They're just not cold enough to get good accumulations for us.
 
This was GSP this morning. I bolded important things.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Wednesday: With cold, sfc high pressure to the
northwest and nearly zonal flow aloft, along with a stationary front
well south of the area, the potential for snow across the area
remains the main topic of interest for the forecast period.

While guidance continues to disagree on total QPF with this event
(as has been the trend the past few days), the general consensus
continues for cyclogenesis along the front somewhere off the GA/FL
Coast on Thursday, as the parent sfc low then moves just off the
Carolina coast into Thursday afternoon. With upper dynamic support,
along with moisture infiltrating in across the Gulf states and
Southeast, precipitation is expected across the area Thursday,
tapering off into Thursday night as the system pulls away. Expect
precip to be ongoing at the beginning of the fcst period, with
mainly snow across the mountains, and all rain across northeast GA
and the Upstate given temperatures around daybreak in the lower 40s.
Temperatures are expected to decrease throughout the rest of the
day, and as this occurs, precipitation is expected to expand across
the area. Per latest fcst soundings, the NAM continues to be the
outlier suggesting a small window of wintry mix around midday as
precipitation transitions from rain to snow. Meanwhile, both the GFS
and ECMWF suggest a clean cut rain to snow transition. Thus, have
kept with this trend into the early afternoon hours, though wet bulb
temps suggest the transition could occur sooner, around noon,
especially around the CLT Metro area. Something to keep a close eye
on. Throughout the afternoon hours, the rain/snow line will shift
southward into the Upstate as temperatures continue to drop.
However, as this transition occurs into the evening, QPF will
decrease significantly as well. Thus, with this fcst package, the
Upstate and portions of northeast GA will struggle to see much in
the way of snow accumulation, while across across the NW Piedmont
could see a dusting to near an inch, and slightly higher amounts
across the mountains, especially across the higher elevations.
Expect all precipitation to dissipate overnight. Any changes in the
next guidance could alter snow accumulations, and could warrant the
issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory.

On Friday, expect dry conditions as sfc high pressure builds in.
However, given recent rain/snow, along with low temperatures Friday
morning in the low to upper 20s across the Upstate and NW Piedmont,
into the teens across the mountains, black ice issues will become a
concern, especially given any residual water/snow on roadways and
elevated surfaces. With clouds clearing out throughout the day,
expect high temperatures to climb into the low to mid 40s across the
Upstate and NW Piedmont, with temperatures across the mountains in
the 30s, with the higher elevations struggling to reach freezing.
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
@SD or @Webberweather53 do you think the north east part of North Carolina towards Elizabeth City will do ok?
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Oh, you’ll do okay alright, probably way more than ok. At least 6” seems like a very good bet, potentially quite a bit more depending on where the heaviest banding sets up
 
Reminder, try to keep the back yard questions in this thread here:

Misc - Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

I've accepted this winter for what it is along time ago! If it manages to somehow snow still then awesome! But if it doesn't its not that rare. It's been 18 years out of 142 years that CLT has only recorded a tr of snow which is not measurable snow. Only recordable snow. But it is kind of...
southernwx.com

The maps posted, along with region discussion should give a pretty good idea otherwise.
 
SnowNiner said:
I hope so. But the latest nam trend has been worrying me. I'm afraid the warm nose is going to keep climbing. But I think my biggest concern is still surface temps. They're just not cold enough to get good accumulations for us.
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I’m not that worried, once heavy precip moves in, whether its IP/SN, it’ll likely be intense, which will combat warm sfc temps (33-37) and a warm ground and start sticking due to the rates
 
Shawn said:
Reminder, try to keep the back yard questions in this thread here:

Misc - Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

I've accepted this winter for what it is along time ago! If it manages to somehow snow still then awesome! But if it doesn't its not that rare. It's been 18 years out of 142 years that CLT has only recorded a tr of snow which is not measurable snow. Only recordable snow. But it is kind of...
southernwx.com
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I was just going to post this. If you a specific question for another member, you can always send a private message as another option.
 
Stephenb888 said:
Is Upstate S.C. pretty much out of this now? I’m hoping we will get a bigger surprise like a few weeks ago.
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Depends on which model has the warm nose or lack of warmth around 800mb depicted correctly. If the Nam is correct we wont see much at all due to the warm layer around 800mb. If Wrf or Hrrr is correct it will be just the opposite..a nice 2-4" snow.
 
First call map from me. Blue 0.5” to 1” of snowfall. Purple 2” to 6” with locally heavier amounts over half a foot above 3,000ft. Black 1” to 4” snow with high end of range near Boone, Huntersville and Raleigh. Red 3” to 7” of snow with high end of range in Virginia only. Outside of black, dusting to 1” including the city of Charlotte. 0AB28A24-1432-47A2-8DAB-8577EA9974A1.jpeg
 
BirdManDoomW said:
First call map from me. Blue 0.5” to 1” of snowfall. Purple 2” to 6” with locally heavier amounts over half a foot above 3,000ft. Black 1” to 4” snow with high end of range near Boone, Huntersville and Raleigh. Red 3” to 7” of snow with high end of range in Virginia only. Outside of black, dusting to 1” including the city of Charlotte. View attachment 35603
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That's a mean ass looking duck!
Good luck NC folks..its your storm for sure
 
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