Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[KyloG]

18z CMC

 

[KyloG]

Heck, even the 18z NAVGEM is showing the overrunning

 

[WxBlue]

It's near-lock that NC is getting snow at this point. Time to break it down to details now... bring on short-range models!

 

[Ron Burgundy]

The GEFS even looks damn good for north Ga

Every single member with snow down to Lake Lanier. Didn’t expect to see that.

 

[Storm5]

Most of us in GA and Alabama really need to see this thing jog about 75-100 miles south on temps

Huntsville is sitting pretty . Will be interesting to see the trends over the coming two days


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[ForsythSnow]

Every single member with snow down to Lake Lanier. Didn’t expect to see that.

It's gotta go further south for me to like it. The slight warm nose is what we need to see go away the next few runs. I think by looking at the 3K NAM that it will for CAD regions.

 

[Dawgdaze22]

What is CAD?


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[Cary_Snow95]

What is CAD?


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Cold air damming

 

[Fisherman]

NAM for me shows 34 during most of the precip with a .9 850 temp. So close. It does spit out .4" of snow so maybe it has it waffling back and forth.

It’s so close for north Georgia. I still think we’re in the game. I’ve learned from the last storm do not write storms off until the last minute. I wonder what temperature will be for canton, Georgia on the nam. Wow it’s gonna be close to glory!?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What is CAD?


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Cold air damming. Basically when your cold air source (high pressure) is situated and feeding cold air down and east of the Appalachian mountains

 

[Dawgdaze22]

Thank you for all your answers


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[tramadoc]

Knowing the stereotypical GEFS biases, folks in RDU and the northern coastal plain have to absolutely love what they're seeing atm.

What biases are those?

 

[Broken024]

What biases are those?

If it shows snow south of 85 its fake news.

 

[winterwx]

New support for north GA on this latest run! Here is a map I have made. Hopefully, we can cash in. need temps down by 2-3 degrees. Maybe CAD would help?

 

[tramadoc]

Really 3 days out....by this time Thurs it will be snowing....so just inside 72 hrs at this point.

Then we should be using short term models instead of global, correct? NAM and WRF?

 

[Nerman]

It's gotta go further south for me to like it. The slight warm nose is what we need to see go away the next few runs. I think by looking at the 3K NAM that it will for CAD regions.

The slow arrival of the 850's into MS, AL, GA has me concerned and confused. It's pushing down into the Carolina's first on every model. Unfortunately, it looks like the moisture will be moving out as the cold push arrives in these areas. I guess a more northward expansion of the precipitation could help keep it around after 2/20 0Z when we need it.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Major increase on the GEFS
For the first time in a year, we have momentum on our side!
View attachment 35042

We had momentum less than two weeks ago and banked it

 

[Alias47]

So what would need to occur for North Central Alabama to be in play on this? The moisture will be there, but not temps. What needs to change for us?

 

[snowlover91]

Then we should be using short term models instead of global, correct? NAM and WRF?

Not WRF but 3km when in range and 12km NAM will be the better models as we head into tomorrow and get in the time where they become more reliable and useful. I like 3km NAM inside 48 hours and 12km inside 60 hours. For now they are helpful in 5h trends of the energy out west.

 

[tramadoc]

Not WRF but 3km when in range and 12km NAM will be the better models as we head into tomorrow and get in the time where they become more reliable and useful. I like 3km NAM inside 48 hours and 12km inside 60 hours. For now they are helpful in 5h trends of the energy out west.

Thanks. You’re in the carolinawx forums as well, right?