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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

metwannabe said:
Still looks to my untrained eye that the NAM tries to get a deform band going, that's still a wild card imo.... stronger system certainly means a better possibility of this.
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An intense deform band or multiple intense bands seem very likely in this setup because there will be a ton of frontogenesis as the deep layer cold air advection sets in on the back edge of the storm
 
metwannabe said:
Still looks to my untrained eye that the NAM tries to get a deform band going, that's still a wild card imo.... stronger system certainly means a better possibility of this.
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Somewhere along this axis or am I way off on this? Thoughts?

1582130018384.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
An intense deform band or multiple intense bands seem very likely in this setup because there will be a ton of frontogenesis as the deep layer cold air advection sets in on the back edge of the storm
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Gotcha, I just think there will be a nice maximum somewhere that will benefit from initial overrunning, never transition and then experience a nice deform band on the backside.... I have no clue where that will be but double digit totals might not be out of the question in that exact right spot.
 
metwannabe said:
Gotcha, I just think there will be a nice maximum somewhere that will benefit from initial overrunning, never transition and then experience a nice deform band on the backside.... I have no clue where that will be but double digit totals might not be out of the question in that exact right spot.
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I generally agree with this, your location could be one of those spots imo
 
Welcome the UKMET to the party.
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I think if you’re in the upstate, you want that coastal low to bomb as quickly and as close to the coast as possible so we can get that cold filtered in to catch the moisture before it pulls out. Basically, we need everyone who lives on the western fringe of the inner coastal plain to get sleeted on. Sorry
 
If I wasnt Bold before 12z , I am now as Ill ever be. I Want post all the wrf models, Nam 3k,12k etc.

But when you view them all, everyone has the same theme.

You take a Funnel and put the tip on Murphy NC and lay across hwy 64 in NC . It opens up wider all the way to Manteo. This is a classic M@M Murphy to Manteo storm. Gonna stay put with my 3 -6 for Randolph. The potential to see higher totals is much more weighted than the potential to see less. Should be a beaut unfolding as the sun sets tommorow afternoon into Thurs evening down the us hwy 64 corridor in NC.
 
metwannabe said:
Somewhere along this axis or am I way off on this? Thoughts?

View attachment 35609
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I think this will end up being close but of varying intensities in the Red area. Probably strongest would be just North of Raleigh to extreme SEVa with a seperate band, but much less intense being around W-S/GSO and a third in the far NE part of NC
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
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great great post. so many comments under my facebook updates saying mets are saying its warm so stuff wont stick.

IDK why but ground temps are way way overexaggerated as a major impact. Sure it'll take a bit longer to stick and sure we will lose an inch to melt but its not like the snow is falling on 90 degree pavement lol
 
Fountainguy97 said:
great great post. so many comments under my facebook updates saying mets are saying its warm so stuff wont stick.

IDK why but ground temps are way way overexaggerated as a major impact. Sure it'll take a bit longer to stick and sure we will lose an inch to melt but its not like the snow is falling on 90 degree pavement lol
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Soil temps are too warm for snow to accum is the most debunked myth of all time. Rates overcome ground temps 99.9999999999%
 
fwiw, the NAM does show weak instability during the snow/sleet with elevated CAPE (even weak SBcape, and elevated K-index temps 4F708677-C243-419D-B64D-A733D4D99720.pngB009F373-08BF-46EE-A5B5-934547EED320.png
 
FallsLake said:
One big question for this event is the surface temps. The 12z HRW-WRF-NSSL would be wonderful for folks in central NC:

View attachment 35614
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That's a great look! Even here in the Southern Piedmont, if only that came to fruition. If it did, the Charlotte area could cash in. Sometimes sitting on that transistion line can do wonders. I.e. Feb 2004.
 
In my opinion, the storm is moving through at such a pace that I think it'll be hard to pull off 10"+ somewhere even under an intense band. That's a strong jet that it's riding on so it's gonna scream through the region rather quickly.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Wow RAP 15z looks to have increased precip significantly by 18z Thursday for East Tennessee and moving into NC ... could be a fun run


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Still meh, sfc temps to warm, it’s BL issues may be showin like the hrrr, or there’s a very tiny chance it’s onto something
 
NWS Huntsville remains very unimpressed for the N AL area. :(

"The precipitation
may briefly begin as sleet, especially for northwest AL and our
southern TN counties, where low-level wet bulb profiles are a bit
more favorable. As the surface trough to our south advances eastward
across the northern Gulf during the day, forecast soundings suggest
that reinvigoration of cold air advection in the low-levels will
provide an increasingly favorable environment for a rain-snow mixture
(or perhaps all snow) during the 12-18Z timeframe, mainly for
northwest AL/southern TN."
 
I think( hope) the models mix to much and keep the surface too warm to long, there is not a big warm nose aloft to overcome like we often have to deal with, hopefully the NAM is not quite as amped and we see that go back away….the warm is at the surface and decent rates will get the snow to the surface quickly IMO and once it goes snow it stays snow. There could/should be a couple of decent bands form one that runs west to east that forms over the northern coastal plains and drifts south and another more SW to NE that forms over interior central NC and drifts SE as the low slides out.....

Personally for MBY I think worst case for the PGV area is 3-5" of snow and .5-1" of sleet if we mix a lot.....best case is probably around 12-14" of snow. Just the fact that things like 6-12" in places is even on the table is awesome IMO and tomorrow should be fun....
 
crecre9 said:
NWS Huntsville remains very unimpressed for the N AL area. :(

"The precipitation
may briefly begin as sleet, especially for northwest AL and our
southern TN counties, where low-level wet bulb profiles are a bit
more favorable. As the surface trough to our south advances eastward
across the northern Gulf during the day, forecast soundings suggest
that reinvigoration of cold air advection in the low-levels will
provide an increasingly favorable environment for a rain-snow mixture
(or perhaps all snow) during the 12-18Z timeframe, mainly for
northwest AL/southern TN."
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What's so bad about there forecast? it's not over doing it and we all know there are surprises in these setups, plus 12z 18z time frame with possible all snow isn't bad. Plus FWIW the gefs came in colder and more snow for areas of north Bama.
 
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