I like what the RAP is showing at hour 21. Precip incoming, cold(er) dew points coming down from the north (upper 20s at RDU), cold(er) surface temps (RDU~34), and 850 temps that match other models (below freezing at RDU).
Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
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An intense deform band or multiple intense bands seem very likely in this setup because there will be a ton of frontogenesis as the deep layer cold air advection sets in on the back edge of the storm
Gotcha, I just think there will be a nice maximum somewhere that will benefit from initial overrunning, never transition and then experience a nice deform band on the backside.... I have no clue where that will be but double digit totals might not be out of the question in that exact right spot.
Robert thinks so. Possibility is there
I generally agree with this, your location could be one of those spots imo
Actually this is a better look and this thing could be going to pound town north central piedmont into northern coastal plain...
In recent memory the deformation band has set up over the I-85 corridor, hopefully it follows that route tomorrow as well. If we can get the rates early in the day I think Charlotte could do quite well.
I think if you’re in the upstate, you want that coastal low to bomb as quickly and as close to the coast as possible so we can get that cold filtered in to catch the moisture before it pulls out. Basically, we need everyone who lives on the western fringe of the inner coastal plain to get sleeted on. Sorry
If I wasnt Bold before 12z , I am now as Ill ever be. I Want post all the wrf models, Nam 3k,12k etc.
But when you view them all, everyone has the same theme.
You take a Funnel and put the tip on Murphy NC and lay across hwy 64 in NC . It opens up wider all the way to Manteo. This is a classic M@M Murphy to Manteo storm. Gonna stay put with my 3 -6 for Randolph. The potential to see higher totals is much more weighted than the potential to see less. Should be a beaut unfolding as the sun sets tommorow afternoon into Thurs evening down the us hwy 64 corridor in NC.
But when you view them all, everyone has the same theme.
You take a Funnel and put the tip on Murphy NC and lay across hwy 64 in NC . It opens up wider all the way to Manteo. This is a classic M@M Murphy to Manteo storm. Gonna stay put with my 3 -6 for Randolph. The potential to see higher totals is much more weighted than the potential to see less. Should be a beaut unfolding as the sun sets tommorow afternoon into Thurs evening down the us hwy 64 corridor in NC.
I think this will end up being close but of varying intensities in the Red area. Probably strongest would be just North of Raleigh to extreme SEVa with a seperate band, but much less intense being around W-S/GSO and a third in the far NE part of NC
great great post. so many comments under my facebook updates saying mets are saying its warm so stuff wont stick.
IDK why but ground temps are way way overexaggerated as a major impact. Sure it'll take a bit longer to stick and sure we will lose an inch to melt but its not like the snow is falling on 90 degree pavement lol
Can, will the coastal get strong enough to do a pivot? Before heading ots. Thats what usually throws a hammering deform band down.
Yeah those pivots can catch Mets off guard, example - jan 2018 (2nd event)