Nerman
Member
I guess I have to wait until the event unfolds to turn this ticket in? Seems like every single event Chattanoogoa gets hit. If they don't get snow then the rest of us aren't and vice versa.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
I guess I have to wait until the event unfolds to turn this ticket in? Seems like every single event Chattanoogoa gets hit. If they don't get snow then the rest of us aren't and vice versa.
Likely overdone trust at your own risk
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I'm riding this model
You must be a glutton for punishment. I wouldn't trust it as much as I could lift a 1978 Buick and toss it.
Can someone tell me what the use is for the WRF ARW? I don't think I've ever seen it be right.
GaSnowhound
Member
I’m prbly more interested in now ast for this than I’ve been for long time. We’ve had a few bones thrown at East metro ATL. I’m 40 mi East rt on I-20. I don’t expect much besides backside flurry but maybe just maybe......we can get a surprise dusting/inch.
The RPM model from WSI is strongly based on it, with other tweaks of course. So basically "Futurecast (RPM)" to an extent.
I think its a research model but I could be wrong
Nerman
Member
Seems the models that want to give some frozen precip to Atlanta are also coming in the furthest North. That leaves the moisture going the longest giving Atl area enough time for the temps to drop on the back side.
What I've been trying to figure out this entire model cycle is why the 850 just hits the brakes on the TN/KY line and pause there for close to 24 hours?!? They slide in OK and then when they hit the gas again they slide down South fast after the moisture. I'm guessing it's the placement the midwest high but I'm not knowledgeable enough to understand it.
I can only show a 5 hour GIF so the file ins't too large. But it stays in the same spot until hour 21.
What I've been trying to figure out this entire model cycle is why the 850 just hits the brakes on the TN/KY line and pause there for close to 24 hours?!? They slide in OK and then when they hit the gas again they slide down South fast after the moisture. I'm guessing it's the placement the midwest high but I'm not knowledgeable enough to understand it.
I can only show a 5 hour GIF so the file ins't too large. But it stays in the same spot until hour 21.
SimeonNC
Member
Robert from WxSouth gives his opinion on the storm, mentions the possibility of thundersleet in some areas? How likely would that be?
Jessy89
Member
I’m sticking with the dusting to 2 inches upstate north of 85. nam pretty much confirms that.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Deleted member 1449
Guest
Did the GFS stop processing after hour 6?
Seems that way, what a time for there to be issues with NCEP data if that's the case
RGEM backed way down on amounts....
Good news on the RGEM has less mixing issues, just lighter amounts, not nearly as amped as the NAM (shocker)
Wake Co
Wake Co
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Deleted member 1449
Guest
Looks like it tries to get a deform band going, but umm yeah mixing issues a little further north too before temps crash
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