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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Webberweather53 said:
I generally agree with @snowlover91 that it will be near the US 264 corridor, the Triangle area and points E-NE have the potential to get crushed on the back side of this storm by frontogenetically forced bands in the CCB imho. If we play our cards right in the next 24 hours, this has the potential to be the best setup since Dec 2010 for folks in the north-central coastal plain and far eastern piedmont.
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Is it worth it to go back to the previous runs of the euro from last week that all showed the bigger totals to see how they match up now with the Nam? The euro has been locked on a shutout since then but it did show outputs similar to what the nam has in the long range.
 
Dawgdaze22 said:
3f798e04e7d16abe501bdae0248590d3.jpg


Don’t know if this has been posted but this is the breakdown when models are split on winter storms in the SE


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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And the GFS Is caving to the NAM, that's why this is looking like a pretty big winter storm
 
ryan1234 said:
But can you blame him? Brad P. is the same. He is by far my favorite meteorologist, ever. But ever since, I think it was the January 2018, where he predicted like 6 inches and we ended up with slop. People were literally cussing him out, making threats, just insane behavior. People are picky when it comes to snow in the South. It's not that often we get a system to track and this one has proven to be quite difficult.
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It was January 2017 that Brad missed, but only for Charlotte south and east. He leaned very heavy on the Euro then and it wasn’t showing the warm nose that the NAM was picking up on and was correct about
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I think if we get some consistent NAM runs for tonight and tomorrow morning than we’re looking at those local METS to start changing their tune a bit and at least bringing up the potential for a bigger deal.. especially with how close we’re approaching ... I mean winter storm watches would have to go out what.. tomorrow??
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Well technically, winter storm watches don't have to go out at all. I have seen winter storm warnings hoisted without any prior watch or even an advisory. However, watches could be posted as early as tomorrow if there is significant evidence of warning criteria snowfall over a given area. If I were a NWS forecaster, I would want to understand why there is such a difference between the Euro camp and the American models. We know that the higher resolution models should be given more weight at this time-frame, but what is the Euro seeing that is causing it to be so suppressed?
 
Interesting projected sounding here. This is north metro Atlanta for 0z on Friday. Can't really tell if i'm looking at a snow sounding or a drizzle sounding. Looks like drizzle but it appears *just* cold enough to promote small flakes instead of rain (top of that moist area is -4C).
1582068677828.png
 
If the 0z euro or even 12z goes towards the nam there is plenty of time for tv and nws Mets to update their forecasts to reflect the increase. It just doesn't make good sense to throw out crazy totals even 48 hours out if you have a massive disparity in the models
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Well technically, winter storm watches don't have to go out at all. I have seen winter storm warnings hoisted without any prior watch or even an advisory. However, watches could be posted as early as tomorrow if there is significant evidence of warning criteria snowfall over a given area. If I were a NWS forecaster, I would want to understand why there is such a difference between the Euro camp and the American models. We know that the higher resolution models should be given more weight at this time-frame, but what is the Euro seeing that is causing it to be so suppressed?
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tomorrow’s shift make the call after looking through the 12z data. Winter Storm Watches are poss in some MTN counties. Advisories elsewhere thanks to raising the criteria threshold. GSP prob similar.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
18z HRRRX just finished. Looks like a beauty.
I like the look of that deep green returns west of the mountains

View attachment 35364
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If we can get those heavier returns, maybe we can overcome that warm nose and get some decent rates before any mixing would occur. I don't know how likely that is, but this image does make me happy.
 
ryan1234 said:
If we can get those heavier returns, maybe we can overcome that warm nose and get some decent rates before any mixing would occur. I don't know how likely that is, but this image does make me happy.
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one key aspect of that would be how intense the front precip is. The “surprise” event a few days ago had extremely heavy front edge precip that tore through the dry air. That is one reason a lot of areas saw snow when models didn’t show it.
That hrrr image looks to have pretty impressive rates right at the get-go. That could aid in the wet bulb early on.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
tomorrow’s shift make the call after looking through the 12z data. Winter Storm Watches are poss in some MTN counties. Advisories elsewhere thanks to raising the criteria threshold. GSP prob similar.
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Is this a quote from Blacksburg or are you just trolling?
 
Fountainguy97 said:
one key aspect of that would be how intense the front precip is. The “surprise” event a few days ago had extremely heavy front edge precip that tore through the dry air. That is one reason a lot of areas saw snow when models didn’t show it.
That hrrr image looks to have pretty impressive rates right at the get-go. That could aid in the wet bulb early on.
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I really hope that will be the case for this event. I mean, if that sleet is extending to CAE, Charlotte should remain all snow. I still have my doubts, I don't want to get too excited. But I like this look. I really like where a lot of us sit.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Is this a quote from Blacksburg or are you just trolling?
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Blacksburg is not Impressed it seems in my area! lol

THURSDAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow in the
morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Little or no
snow accumulation. Cooler with highs in the upper 30s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Cloudy in the evening, then clearing. A chance
of rain in the evening. A chance of snow. Little or no snow
accumulation. Cooler with lows in the lower 20s. North winds
around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
 
ryan1234 said:
If we can get those heavier returns, maybe we can overcome that warm nose and get some decent rates before any mixing would occur. I don't know how likely that is, but this image does make me happy.
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If we can beat back the warm nose with rates for only a short time I think eventually cold air will continue to filter in and make it easier for the snow to stay all snow ... good signs regardless tonight wrt the warm nose
 
ForsythSnow said:
Definitely something to pay attention to. Looks to me that the warm nose is not as impressive as on the NAM. Real question is whether the graupel starts first then goes to snow or the other way around.
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either way, it is white and frozen ... a beggar's banquet ... ❄
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
If we can beat back the warm nose with rates for only a short time I think eventually cold air will continue to filter in and make it easier for the snow to stay all snow ... good signs regardless tonight wrt the warm nose
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I agree! I am cautiously optimistic about this system. I hope both Charlotte and Raleigh can score. We have been the dividing line, with pretty much every storm. Rooting for you guys in the Triangle!
 
Well the professor up at Appalachian State sounds bitter. Ray told everyone he won’t be going higher than a dusting to 1” because of “how this winter has gone”. Goes on to say to keep your expectations low so you won’t be disappointed. If you don’t believe me go read his forecast for Boone. Seems a bit foolish without a science reasoning to let the public think for themselves. I guess he has no care for student safety.
 
I wanted to put this in here since it was already posted in the Whamby thread, but the ARPEGE made a huge shift from a Euroish solution to a big dog NAMish solution today. I don’t think this model is particularly good, but it’s good to see another model fall in line, IMO.

KyloG said:
Our French friend has ticked north today

View attachment 35359View attachment 35360
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BirdManDoomW said:
Well the professor up at Appalachian State sounds bitter. Ray told everyone he won’t be going higher than a dusting to 1” because of “how this winter has gone”. Goes on to say to keep your expectations low so you won’t be disappointed. If you don’t believe me go read his forecast for Boone. Seems a bit foolish without a science reasoning to let the public think for themselves. I guess he has no care for student safety.
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He might be right for the far northern mountains.
 
I might be too bullish with this forecast, but someone had to give it a shot over these conservative local mets. Posting this onto my Facebook page for family and friends was terrifying.

EDIT: I decided to drop 6-8" zone in eastern NC for now with my social media posts.


preliminary_snowfall_forecast_southernwx.jpg
 
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So, on one hand with varying Big Dogs we have the NAM/GFS/ICON/GGEM/ARPEGE/NAVGEM/RAP/WRF and on the other side we have the suppressed Euro and UKMET. The UKMET does typically have a suppression bias, IIRC. I do hope the Euro folds tonight, but most of the modeling is on the side of a big storm in some form or fashion now.
 
Just caught the latest forecast from Van Denton. Their in-house model updated right before he showed it, and it now has the snow shield making it up to the Triad. He said it had been one of the last hold-outs for showing no snow here. Definitely gave the impression that he’ll be upping his official forecast of 1”. The trends seem to be lining up for us this time hopefully!
 
SD said:
This is how you get close enough to smell the rain but have mashed potatoes fallingView attachment 35376
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How many times have we seen overrunning precip come in earlier and heavier?! That is some insane lift l, hope you get crushed
 
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