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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah globals really have struggled. I think they do poorly in setups where there is no low pressure driving the precip. This setup is perfect to sneak under the global models noses.
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Yes, that’s also such a waste of good opportunity down this way. We traditionally do well w overrunning if CAD sets up strong east of apps. If this were a classic CAD HP.....I think you’re spot on re models struggling w LP not being formed during event. I wonder what the chances are of this energy popping LP in gulf. It’s happened before......a ltl wave in the stream sliding by and suddenly we have LP forming. May not be the right setup now but I find these scenarios fascinating. Either way it seems it’s gonna pop a coastal off Carolina.
 
GaSnowhound said:
Yes, that’s also such a waste of good opportunity down this way. We traditionally do well w overrunning if CAD sets up strong east of apps. If this were a classic CAD HP.....I think you’re spot on re models struggling w LP not being formed during event. I wonder what the chances are of this energy popping LP in gulf. It’s happened before......a ltl wave in the stream sliding by and suddenly we have LP forming. May not be the right setup now but I find these scenarios fascinating. Either way it seems it’s gonna pop a coastal off Carolina.
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Can’t ever recall a coastal working out for us in the I-20 region of GA. We either get rain or get hosed on the transfer.
 
At this stage, where does it look like the southern extent of anything frozen will be?
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Can’t ever recall a coastal working out for us in the I-20 region of GA. We either get rain or get hosed on the transfer.
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Yeah......the transfer can be a deal killer even when we do have a favorable LP track. Are you on north side of town (Atl)? If so, you’d stand a btr shot at some onset accum (if it’s even possible) than us further east.
 
Fisherman said:
14 members now are getting north Georgia back in play. Slowly but surely. Reminds me of last weekend when we were only supposed to get a dusting the up to the night before the event and we got a little over 3 inches in Cherokee county Georgia.
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I’ve got a feeling this wi
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
No precip in the upstate. Coastal transfer kills it I think
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like I said in a earlier post this looks like similar set up of what north Georgia went through a couple of weekends ago that went from a dusting to 3 inches It wouldn’t take much for this to turn into a north of I-20 special here in north Georgia. Moisture will not be a problem because every system we have had here in north Georgia has went over the amount of rain projected. I think this going to get better as we get closer and you can snow showing up now in north Georgia so temps are close and see that high pressure sliding into a good spot. Get the popcorn ready?
 
Fisherman said:
I’ve got a feeling this wi

like I said in a earlier post this looks like similar set up of what north Georgia went through a couple of weekends ago that went from a dusting to 3 inches It wouldn’t take much for this to turn into a north of I-20 special here in north Georgia. Moisture will not be a problem because every system we have had here in north Georgia has went over the amount of rain projected. I think this going to get better as we get closer and you can snow showing up now in north Georgia so temps are close and see that high pressure sliding into a good spot. Get the popcorn ready?
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That’s been my concern all along. We need that high pumping over NE to really feed it down east of apps I think. I’m out of town (beech mtn nc) and can’t see much on iPhone. Where’s that high modeling to set up currently??
 
Broken024 said:
Would more of this be snow back in Charlotte?
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In my opinion if the storm was to develop that far east, there is no precipitation as far west as Charlotte. Charlotte's hope is in the overrunning not the storm off the coast, imo. By the time the storm is that far off the coast precip is long gone.
 
metwannabe said:
I can't un-see the ICON, it has around .8 total qpf for this event imby and considering how warm it tends to be.... again let's see what the ukie and euro have to say.
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That was a pretty shocking run. I don't think it's had more than trace amounts past the coastline in recent days, so that's a really huge shift at a pretty close range.
 
now that we seem to have a formidable threat for some areas. this thread will be cleaned up so people can find actual information . If your post gets moved or deleted . DONT take it personal .

WARNING- if anyone posts " Why did my post get deleted " they will sit on the sidelines for a week .We've all been down this road before and everyone should know how this works by now
 
Canadian and ICON look great. GFS is headed in the right direction. I think this one is going to see the Euro be the last one to jump on board. Right now central NC is still ahead in the game.
 
GaSnowhound said:
Yeah......the transfer can be a deal killer even when we do have a favorable LP track. Are you on north side of town (Atl)? If so, you’d stand a btr shot at some onset accum (if it’s even possible) than us further east.
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About 2 miles south of 285/400 interchange. I’d be shocked if we see a flake. But we got in on the last system so anything else is a bonus this year IMHO.
 
NS energy on cmc not digging as much, probably won’t be impressive as the last run but will still be solid
 
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