cmc shifts back eastward with the precip, not as far west as 00z.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Yep flow was back to flatter, still a decent hit but wrong direction
And just like that, we have some convergence. Met Mauler
I ain't mad...
GaSnowhound
Member
I still wouldn’t be surprised that SER nudges it back in a bit. Coast looks good but piedmont may well cash in too before it’s over to some degree imho.
Broken024
Member
Gefs keeping heavier storms south
Little shift NW with QPF on gefs
06z
12z
06z
12z
baroowoofr
Member
12z UKMET trying to come north, still rather suppressed, but less so than 12z yesterday:
ATLwxfan
Member
12z NAM a tick south. This bears watching for North AL and GA north of I-20. I little further south and a little more juice and it’s a potential board wide threat. Getting into the NAM wheelhouse.
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iGRXY
Member
Right now this is where I see things setting up currently. I think ENC and NE SC look to be in the sweet spot for the highest accumulations and probability for snow. I think Northern Alabama, NE Georgia, the Upstate up to the I40 corridor look close for a decent winter storm. CAD areas look the best for those areas for snow as well. The midlands towards the coast will be interesting as well because if we get some extra cold air and CAD to extend into the northern midlands, then this could get very interesting for them as well. I think the moisture will cut off around I40 and the colder air will be cut off down towards I20.
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Forevertothee
Member
WYFF noon forecaster has 47 and rain for Upstate on Th. 40% chance of precip.
They clearly are leaning on Globals vs NAM.
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They clearly are leaning on Globals vs NAM.
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I don’t normally agree with Brad P. but I do for this one. This isn’t it for his viewing area of the Charlotte metro. Or even Boone NC for that matter.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This based on what exactly? Gut feelings? Wooly caterpillars? The magic conch?
ATLwxfan
Member
That didn’t work out on last weeks “surprise snow”. Just wait till some of the other mesoscale models come into range.
For the record, the Euro last week may have read this through the tea leaves. We shall see.
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That’s going to be pretty close to reality. I think there’s an outside chance we’re mostly dry though. That cold air behind the front is going to be pleasant ?
iGRXY
Member
They screwed that up up very badly. they were calling for a rain snow mix at most in the upstate.
Jessy89
Member
He’s been a metrologist for a long time. Based on his experience i would say
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CMC ensembles, precip was more north this run, it been consistent as heck 
Here’s another panel, nice amounts of moisture, just meh SFC temps where 850s are cold enough, but dynamic cooling would probably take care of that like the NAM hints at
He ALWAYS leans conservative. Especially after he busted pretty bad here a couple of Decembers ago. I love Brad, but he won't budge until more modeling shows some general consensus. This look is too good to completely give up.