It won’t matter if you can lay down a good sleet base before the snow!
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
SREF meteograms
KRDU
KGSO
KGSP
KCLT
KFAY
KRDU
KGSO
KGSP
KCLT
KFAY
Could you do Columbia SC?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Subtle differences continue early in on the NAM run. This thing isn't done changing.
GaSnowhound
Member
I’ve been watching for possibility of globals missing the wedge. However NAM wasn’t overly impressive so I’d prty much written this off. Love the look for my area but is SREF a reliable tool ?? I’d love to see Hrrr, RAP and other short rangers show us some love.
Rates can and will overcome. Not surprised at all given one of the warmer winters in memory.
John1122
Member
NAM is maybe 75 miles north with the precip shield leaving Texas into Louisiana through 21 vs 18z.
GaSnowhound
Member
This has been my concern as well. I love the look and loved idea of globals missing wedge but NAMs really taken my enthusiasm for our area.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
To keep myself honest, I've created a new page on my website that catalogs every winter storm forecast map I've made since 2017 for NC. I'll have something for NC here in a bit.
https://www.webberweather.com/winter-storm-forecast-verification.html
https://www.webberweather.com/winter-storm-forecast-verification.html
JimBobs
Member
Wondered if the rain we're having right now can cool the soil some before the snow arrives. A quick google showed that "the soil temperature at a depth of 5 cm can decrease by as much as 6.5 ∘C in only 12 min during a soil-cooling rain."
Hope so. Every degree counts. I really didn't like the CLT air temperature over-performing today at 63 degrees.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The wave is ever so slightly less flat in CA. Seems to be large enough to have an impact however. I have to wonder if this could pull the cold air down better or if it prevents it from coming as far south.
I really don’t think it’s a huge deal. I watched 2.5 inches pile up in just under 2 hours last year on April 2. Soil temperatures were very similar
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Don’t worry about soil temps. Look what happened to us a couple of weeks ago. North Georgia got plastered
Yeah your not kidding 70 with thunderstorms couple days before I believe?
Nam looking heavier for the triad.
Worse for southern areas.
Worse for southern areas.
Fayetteville TN getting clobbered per 32k NAM
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like this run is really beating down the warm nose in N GA faster than 18Z. I think this is going to be a better run for all.
NAM is not backing down
Much warmer for Charlotte
Jessy89
Member
18z is what 6pm? Upstate is still rain
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avlsnow
Member
18z is around 1pm I think
yeah gotta hope it's a little too amped, can have too much of a good thing. That transition zone keeps creeping northward
Big run for RDU.
Jessy89
Member
I wouldn’t even be bothered by that rain snow line ... it will wiggle and move until we get to the now casting stage the key here is that a significant widespread winter storm threat is upon us ... this feels odd .. rip the grocery stores late tomorrow and Thursday I bet
Better run for the foothills and triad. Doesn’t mean if right tho gotta blend in the other garbage to avoid wish casting.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Ehh we are still almost two days away. That is unfortunately plenty of time for it to creep north. I have been screwed many a times. Hoping for the best for y’all!
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Getting nervous about the NAM now. Getting too close to the mix zone. I don't miss sweating over rain/snow line because that wasn't an issue in New Hampshire.
JLL1973
Member
The nam run actually gave us here in north ms a chance to see some flurries
Backside is better.
Sorry if you're close to that line 48 hrs out you need to be bothered a little, especially with a coastal now forming, it would go against all odds to not wiggle NW some. Take it from many years experience
I think we get snow no matter what happens now. But the question is how much.
Jessy89
Member
It’s gonna be hard to get anything over 1-2 inches in the upstate. Soundings are border line rain/snow/sleet
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Look at that lift though. Epic ping
iGrey_X
Member
Surprisingly it didn’t look good early on but the run finished around 4-6 inches along and north of 85 from Greenville East. You cut that in half and it’s still a solid 2-4 swath.