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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

RAH not biting:

Mid and high level moisture will increase rapidly on Thursday ahead
of a positively tilted trough digging through the Midwest. Precip
will spread along the stalled frontal zone over the SE US, with
cyclogenesis induced off the SE coast. Models continue to trend a a
bit closer to the coast with the surface low bringing more moisture
inland. The low is still relatively weak, however, and moves east
with the digging trough. The bigger question is whether or not the
arctic air associated with a 1045+ mb high over the central US will
spill across the mountains in time to cause a mix of rain and snow
or changeover to rain. The high is not in a favorable location for
the dense cold air to make it into NC very quickly...likely having
to filter across the central Appalachians and south through VA...and
so the probability of probability more than a rain/snow mix appears
very low at this time. If there is an opportunity for phasing of
sufficiently deep moisture/omega and cold air, it would be north and
east of the Triangle, which is where the outlier EPS solutions
lie..while the the GFS and GEFS appear to be too aggressive with
with cold air.
 
Here’s kinda what I’m thinking rn, note this isn’t accumulation maps, just areas I think have more support and have a better shot at seeing snow actually fall, area in the black in SC is a area where ensembles have been hinting at something making it that far south so I added that since there’s uncertainty B26AFAE5-8C8D-46D0-ABC5-39EDB43AACEB.jpeg
 
ragtop50 said:
RAH not biting:

Mid and high level moisture will increase rapidly on Thursday ahead
of a positively tilted trough digging through the Midwest. Precip
will spread along the stalled frontal zone over the SE US, with
cyclogenesis induced off the SE coast. Models continue to trend a a
bit closer to the coast with the surface low bringing more moisture
inland. The low is still relatively weak, however, and moves east
with the digging trough. The bigger question is whether or not the
arctic air associated with a 1045+ mb high over the central US will
spill across the mountains in time to cause a mix of rain and snow
or changeover to rain. The high is not in a favorable location for
the dense cold air to make it into NC very quickly...likely having
to filter across the central Appalachians and south through VA...and
so the probability of probability more than a rain/snow mix appears
very low at this time. If there is an opportunity for phasing of
sufficiently deep moisture/omega and cold air, it would be north and
east of the Triangle, which is where the outlier EPS solutions
lie..while the the GFS and GEFS appear to be too aggressive with
with cold air.
Click to expand...


Of course not. We're not 48 hours away yet.
 
ragtop50 said:
RAH not biting:

Mid and high level moisture will increase rapidly on Thursday ahead
of a positively tilted trough digging through the Midwest. Precip
will spread along the stalled frontal zone over the SE US, with
cyclogenesis induced off the SE coast. Models continue to trend a a
bit closer to the coast with the surface low bringing more moisture
inland. The low is still relatively weak, however, and moves east
with the digging trough. The bigger question is whether or not the
arctic air associated with a 1045+ mb high over the central US will
spill across the mountains in time to cause a mix of rain and snow
or changeover to rain. The high is not in a favorable location for
the dense cold air to make it into NC very quickly...likely having
to filter across the central Appalachians and south through VA...and
so the probability of probability more than a rain/snow mix appears
very low at this time. If there is an opportunity for phasing of
sufficiently deep moisture/omega and cold air, it would be north and
east of the Triangle, which is where the outlier EPS solutions
lie..while the the GFS and GEFS appear to be too aggressive with
with cold air.
Click to expand...

I'm really not sure what NWS RAH is talking about here, in no way, shape, or form is the location of the surface high unfavorable for snow in NC. When you look at all of the Miller A winter storms (nearly 100 of them) that have impacted NC since the mid 1900s, the high is typically centered over Iowa.

North America NCEPR1 MSLPa NC Miller A Winter Storms (1948-2019).png


ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_4.png
 
This was before I saw Webber's post with EPS screenshots. ArcGIS is annoying about adjusting polygons so I'm just gonna leave it alone for now. If I were to change it, though, I'd add more light blue into Charlotte area and a bit closer to the Triad. To be clear, my first call map is to simply show where I think the chance of *ANY* snow is the best right now.

firstcall_southernwx.jpg
 
WRAL has mentioned it in their discussion for Thursday night.

"Cloudy skies with some very spotty light rain, some light sleet and some wet snowflakes possible. We are watching a system that's sliding by to our south tonight and in the morning. The moisture may grow far enough north over us to bring a light wintry mix. This is something we have been watching in the models since last week and it is showing consistency in being very light and cold enough that there could be a light wintry mix. In the morning lows should be in the upper 20s-lower 30s so whatever falls may be an issue on elevated surfaces for the commute Friday. We will continue to monitor the trend so keep checking back for update information."
 
GSP


There now looks to be a brief break in the precip Wednesday night as
the first wave of forcing moves east and some drier air moves in. Of
course, this sets the stage for the potential for some wintry precip
as moisture moves back in Thursday ahead of the surface wave moving
along the front and some upper divergence associated with a coupled
jet streak. The guidance still doesn`t agree on how far north the
moisture moves or just how cold the air will be. That said, it is
now looking like there will be precip at least as far north as the I-
85 corridor and likely the NC mountains. Precip tapers off quickly
Thursday night as the wave moves east of the area. The thermal
profiles and partial thickness progs show the precip to be rain or
snow with no significant warm nose. I`m beginning to become wary of
the snowfall potential given the previous 2 snow events where the
thermal profile and thickness values were quite similar. I suspect
this event could be similar where precip begins as snow over the
western CWFA along and north of the I-85 corridor with accumulations
developing where precip can fall for the longest period of time.
That said, have followed the national guidance for now which keeps
the accumulating snow across the higher elevations and mainly rain
outside of the mountains. Of course, this forecast could go either
way, so interested parties will need to stay abreast of the latest
updates.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Forevertothee said:
GSP


There now looks to be a brief break in the precip Wednesday night as
the first wave of forcing moves east and some drier air moves in. Of
course, this sets the stage for the potential for some wintry precip
as moisture moves back in Thursday ahead of the surface wave moving
along the front and some upper divergence associated with a coupled
jet streak. The guidance still doesn`t agree on how far north the
moisture moves or just how cold the air will be. That said, it is
now looking like there will be precip at least as far north as the I-
85 corridor and likely the NC mountains. Precip tapers off quickly
Thursday night as the wave moves east of the area. The thermal
profiles and partial thickness progs show the precip to be rain or
snow with no significant warm nose. I`m beginning to become wary of
the snowfall potential given the previous 2 snow events where the
thermal profile and thickness values were quite similar. I suspect
this event could be similar where precip begins as snow over the
western CWFA along and north of the I-85 corridor with accumulations
developing where precip can fall for the longest period of time.
That said, have followed the national guidance for now which keeps
the accumulating snow across the higher elevations and mainly rain
outside of the mountains. Of course, this forecast could go either
way, so interested parties will need to stay abreast of the latest
updates.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

That’s much better, glad there not writing it off like they normally have done lately
 
MHX officially putting it out there....

Thursday Night
A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of rain and snow between midnight and 1am, then a chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


Also a HWO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
310 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203-182015-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
310 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

As low pressure moves off the Carolina coast Thursday night, rain
may mix with or change to snow over parts of the region. There is
still great uncertainty if any snow accumulations will occur. At this
time, the most likely areas of seeing snow if it does occur will be
for places away from the coast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
 
That fronto band is quite interesting lookin on the NAM, going off past experiences normally there quicker/more intense then modeled
 
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