Yeah, I remember two waves of wintry precip in that one.. Sorry, was just curious about compare/contrast..
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Snowflowxxl
Member
I think we are pretty much out on this one. I would not be surprised however if a decent amount of the metro sees flakes on the backside.
GFS
Stormsfury
Member
Not a problem. I compared some past SC events earlier with reanalysis maps from some prior notable storms and couldn't find too much of a similar match.
While I'm typing, I noticed something strange with the 850mb low on both the NAM12 AND NAM3... The semblance of an 850mb low seems to take shape around NE GA but actually propagates ESE thru and off Charleston by late THU/early FRI AM.
I have been noticing with this 00z suite that models are trending more positive with the trough supplying the cold air. That’s not a good thing.
Cold chasing moisture for this run in CHA, looks like, to my uneducated eye.
Jessy89
Member
That warm nose will be something to pay attention to on future runs tomorrow
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Snownut
Member
In the upstate I could see this starting as a mix, then ascthermals crash down it turns to all snow
iGrey_X
Member
Gfs says rain on the maps but the soundings are snow.
Jessy89
Member
My fear is it ends as light rain/sleet with warm nose coming up out of Georgia.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Maybe 2/11/14? Others have compared to that in here (like @Myfrotho704_ ). The overrunning thump turned out to be more than modeled. I was up close to your way that year and was expecting more on the next day, but by about the early afternoon, there was 4" of snow on the ground and it was misting (as it had wrapped up).
Anyway, not to have this totally off topic, I hope for everyone's sake that this warmer trend stops.
Be careful. NAM and now GFS showing major warm nose into the upstate. Which is usually the case more times than not. Still time to fix that but be very wary
iGrey_X
Member
That’s likely what will happen. Rain to mix to snow all in about an hour or 2
iGrey_X
Member
Gfs soundings are snow soundings in the upstate. The surface says rain but the soundings are snow.
Snownut
Member
Not before 2-3" of snow
NCSNOW
Member
In a good spot here N Randolph County. 2-6 county wide looks like a solid bet. Thats being conservative. I can envision perfect set up and far eastern , esp SE corner part of county making a run at a 6-10 lollipop. Solid thermals and very encouraging qpf trends up to .5+
See if we can hold the fort at 6z and 12z on the cam models qpf and thermal wise. But I like where things sit at the moment
See if we can hold the fort at 6z and 12z on the cam models qpf and thermal wise. But I like where things sit at the moment
That looks about right! I'm in that white hole of NOTHING....................... lol
ATLwxfan
Member
Not sure what to make of the accumulation maps on 12k and 3k NAM
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I like PW's map better lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
My current thoughts on this event:
I decided to refrain from putting down specific totals given just how much uncertainty there is at hand, but for folks say in the Triangle Area, Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Elizabeth City, etc (basically in the pink) something in the ballpark of 4-8/5-10" of snow seems like a generally reasonable expectation for now given what I'm seeing w/ this storm.
I'm legitimately worried about mixing issues w/ sleet near and south of the US HWY 64 & 264 corridors
I decided to refrain from putting down specific totals given just how much uncertainty there is at hand, but for folks say in the Triangle Area, Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Elizabeth City, etc (basically in the pink) something in the ballpark of 4-8/5-10" of snow seems like a generally reasonable expectation for now given what I'm seeing w/ this storm.
I'm legitimately worried about mixing issues w/ sleet near and south of the US HWY 64 & 264 corridors
Shaggy
Member
Forecasters got to hate this setup. Nam is a crush job and gfs and others are much less. Wouldnt ve surprised if they keep their forecast low until they have to show heavier totals if models keep showing higher amounts.
iGrey_X
Member
Anyway you could do a S.C. one as well?
do TN now..
GFS strikes the middle ground and closer to reality, still looks like a 1pm start for PGV and a predominant SN event based on soundings. Inside 36hr uptick in rates will take the last 1K' isothermal so not currently worried by 36-37 at surface . Tomorrow it will be all about the short term meso guidance, this will be the last set of global guidance weighted IMO.
NCCWOP9077
Member
Latest HREF valid 4pm Thursday afternoon
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accu35
Member
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Can you back that map up a few hours?Latest HREF valid 4pm Thursday afternoon
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That map reminds me of the snow footprint the dec 2018 storm left behind, dang
NCCWOP9077
Member
WRF ARW
WRF NMB
WRF NMB
NCCWOP9077
Member
That's about as far north as the sleet line goes, it starts drifting south after that1pm Thursday
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00z CMC.
Avalanche
Member
Every run seems anemic in contrast with the NAM
At this point I wouldn’t get upset over globals looking meh, it’s mesoscale Model time
NCSNOW
Member
Ukmet came north with qpf gpt on board. Lines up with nam, gfs now. Gets .5 right into SE Randolph.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Nothing like being in the donut hole and the bullseye in the same day. I’m really curious what the next NAM run shows. Trends are interesting but hard to bite in ATL metro.
John1122
Member
Not sure how applicable it is to this event, but it's been a trend on models in the short range here in my area of Tennessee with near non stop rain events.
The 00z Monday global runs had my 24 hour precip ending at 1am tonight with the following, .25 Euro, .30 GFS, .6 Canadian. Meso models .25 NAM and .35 RGEM.
I just emptied my rain gauge for today. Actual total was .57. Models have been under performing in the short range all year. Especially the NW side. Oddly the Canadian was the closest model for me with today's system from 24-48 hours out from start to finish time.
The 00z Monday global runs had my 24 hour precip ending at 1am tonight with the following, .25 Euro, .30 GFS, .6 Canadian. Meso models .25 NAM and .35 RGEM.
I just emptied my rain gauge for today. Actual total was .57. Models have been under performing in the short range all year. Especially the NW side. Oddly the Canadian was the closest model for me with today's system from 24-48 hours out from start to finish time.