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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

and there is the warm nose for the upstate and clt, early warning shot? late warm noses making our modeled snow turn to sleet has screwed so many storms over the past few years.
 
Overall, NAM runs have trended warmer for North Georgia. Looking less and less like an event for North Georgia/ Metro Atlanta (outside of the mountains) but looking at these soundings, it's just so close. 2-3 degree change between now and then and we get widespread heavy accumulations. Is 2-3 degrees too much to ask for at this range? With a warming trend, it seems so,
 
SimeonNC said:
Okay, well early Thursday doesn't sound too good due to daytime heating. I hope it holds off until after 12-2pm in that case.

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I think right now it's showing mid-day or so but as happens time and time again, don't be surprised to see it arrive earlier
 
bouncycorn said:
Overall, NAM runs have trended warmer for North Georgia. Looking less and less like an event for North Georgia/ Metro Atlanta (outside of the mountains) but looking at these soundings, it's just so close. 2-3 degree change between now and then and we get widespread heavy accumulations. Is 2-3 degrees too much to ask for at this range? With a warming trend, it seems so,
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I was looking at the sounding at hour 75 for the city of Atlanta....a damn warm nose between 800mb and 850 height is killing us.
2020021718_NAM_075_33.75,-83.93_severe_ml.png


Hour 78 might be a snow sounding...definitely at the very least mixed precip.
 
KyloG said:
ICON backed up 12z run

View attachment 34999
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Shoot me for "wishcasting" but I got to think it could be more if the ICON verified just because it's usually too warm with temps but either way that's nice right there, real nice.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I was looking at the sounding at hour 75 for the city of Atlanta....a damn warm nose between 800mb and 850 height is killing us.
2020021718_NAM_075_33.75,-83.93_severe_ml.png


Hour 78 might be a snow sounding...definitely at the very least mixed precip.
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So close but hell it's 78 hours out. Maybe we can drop a couple of degrees between now and then and get a snow event. Definitely not out of the question given recent systems.
 
I have a feeling if we’re going to see warm nose or precip type issues the warning shots will come when the 3km NAM is in range ... until then I really don’t see a warm nose or precip type issues being there for many in NC cold air is filtering in while storm is even going so they would only be at the start anyway and quickly change over .. plus the low is wayyyy out off the ocean .. doesn’t scream warm nose to me
 
bouncycorn said:
So close but hell it's 78 hours out. Maybe we can drop a couple of degrees between now and then and get a snow event. Definitely not out of the question given recent systems.
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Unfortunately, I just don't think it'll happen this time for much of the metro(I think those farther north in GA have a much better chance). NAM does give some consolation flakes at the end when temps are more than fine at that point. Just don't think it'll get cold enough during the heart of the precip.
 
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