NWS updated their snowfall totals. Still bearish imo.
Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
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Seems pretty good though for them at this lead time
These forecast graphics are almost always crap and idk why NWS still uses them, there's not a lot of human input that goes into them. 2-3" high end amount in Raleigh is a joke.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Sounds like some folks are worried about the warm nose in Wake. Are you concerned about that?
Highl
Highly likely we will be under a winter storm watch, then warning.
We should always be concerned about that in any non miller A regardless of location (outside of mtns) when cold air is not entrenched prior to moisture arrival.
NAM thermals are usually closest to reality when it comes to setups like these even tho they may be a tad overamped at times, certainly worried about mixing cutting down snow totals from around Raleigh & points south. A changeover to all snow will occur however and the rates & ratios will be optimal for very significant accumulation in the NE piedmont and Northern coastal plain, thus several inches of snow/sleet seems at least probable (if not likely) already imo for the Triangle area. Once you get near and south of US HWY 264, things may get dicey
Initial assessment of the 0Z RGEM, focusing on 200-500mb in the inter-mountain west through 30hrs compared to 12z, precip should be north and slightly more amplified as T is stepped.
NWS offices in the Northeast used them pretty well. I don't know why NWS offices in North Carolina chose to not to be aggressive with their high end amount forecast.
Oh my. Don't look at the ICON if you guys aren't wanting to be disappointed. Barely any Wintry weather until the precipitation is leaving for far Eastern NC.
ICON has a prolific warm bias in the boundary layer, not surprised that it looks this warm.
Icon isn’t even worth looking at
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Deleted member 1449
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A definite improvement with the RGEM tonight too, though not nearly as robust as the NAM. But the main take away seems to be that the models are beginning to catch on to the overruning threat in addition to the coastal action.
1047 HP to the north, meh ICON not very good with thermals.... hopefully
What about the southern piedmont and sandhills (CLT-FAY), mixing is obviously going to be more of an issue but what are your opinions for those areas?