Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GFS looks to basically hold serve this time, with perhaps a bit more overrunning precip if anything at the onset.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
nsfw
Jessy89
Member
Are we still looking at a coastal transfer to screw the upstate or is that changed?
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GFS is even a good run for upstate of SC
GFS is trending even closer to the NAM
Snownut
Member
Agree 100%
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That island everyone said the NAM was on is now inhabited by the Euro. The euro will get lonely out there after about 12 or so hours and come running back to the crowd.
I like the trend on the GFS over the past 24hrs.
The possibility of a (significant) winter storm is definitely a possibility, wow
Dawgdaze22
Member
Even north Georgia getting in good on the new gfs
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D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I think that's the best GFS run for the NW Piedmont, maybe the rest of the guidance will latch on, too.
@Shawn I'm starting to think maybe Columbia SC could see up to an inch somewhere in the Midlands. Trending Colder.
GFS was nice..I can’t speak for everyone but great trends today if you were hoping for accumulating snow in the upstate
boy that's close.
The back side holds some potential for you guys. I’m willing to bet the Blythewood side of CAE sees snow at some point on Thursday
3KM NAM will, regardless of what else happens, handle temperatures better. Watch those and soundings.
Didn't see this posted. 18z 3k kuchera
I think the Midlands sees snow Thursday evening. I don’t think it’ll stick but I do think it’ll be flying around as the system pulls away.
yea i definitely think some flurries will get down here
FamouslyHot
Member
Agreed. Accumulating snow would require temps to collapse much faster than expected and strong rates. The latter is likely but the former is not imo. My hopes for the backend flurries from the coastal low are not high.
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Pulled from the recent 3KM NAM, the area circles during the heart of the precipitation makes me a sad panda. It gets beaten down over time, but not until the best moisture is leaving the area:
I like this frame ? 
What model is that? The RPM or something? Look even juicier than the NAM was.
That’s the DONnado In-house model
No, it’s the WYFF in-house model. Which is usually too warm ??
snowlover91
Member
Here’s how I see it playing out. Nam has a weak 850 low tracking across CAE to ILM. Assuming that’s correct it would put the best lift in the black and red circles I added here. The red is the area where I believe the transition zone will be and just north of it in the black is the area that should be mostly snow and has the chance to see the highest amounts. The 264 corridor from Washington to RDU may get hammered if the mixing stays to the south. It’s going to be a close call though.
I’ve also noticed those in-house models seem to be too dry and that picture looks pretty juicyThat’s the DONnado In-house model
No, it’s the WYFF in-house model. Which is usually too warm ??
This is really neat, it shows the RPM being a beast, and how the NAM + RPM outperform large snow events vs GFS/Euro at larger lead times: https://ams.confex.com/ams/44Broadcast/webprogram/Paper294758.html (its a video presentation)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You must be super pumped in Wilson
packfan98
Moderator
Van Denton in the Triad just showed their in house RPM model and it was very dry and Euro-like.
Sctvman
Member
Ed’s first take...
SnowNiner
Member
Accross the board I'd like the temps about 3 degrees lower. Without rates, we'll lose accumulation, especially during the daytime.
snowlover91
Member
Not yet, I’m riding that fine line of being all snow or mixing with a lot of sleet. I know these mixing zones oftentimes are further north than even the NAM shows but I’m hoping I can stay all snow... and that it’s right with the qpf. I’ve only seen a foot of snow once in my lifetime and that was the December 2010 Christmas storm, would love a repeat here.
This is probably the closest to the true RPM (out to 72 hours) that I have access to, but as you see, it's quite a bit different, in the Deeper South, especially(midlands of sc), and seems to try and match what the RPM modeling posted in various threads and our local forecasts are starting to show:
Shaggy
Member
Models are starting to consolidate along the 264 corridor with some good totals. If by this time tomorrow they are still showing 6+ then it is gonna be something we haven't seen in several years.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even with all the potential mixing, once you flip to all snow, the bands are going to be nuts in the coastal plain as the coastal low cranks up on the back end of the storm
---- I’m kinda getting just a little pumped here lol, after the winter it’s been, I’ll take 0.5-2 inches of snow or even sleet to go, this winter has been so bad that it makes just a little amount seem great
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I definitely think we have the potential to get a sneaky few to several inches if this initial overrunning is more intense than forecast. A few inches of sleet in CLT with some snow thrown in isn’t an unreasonable expectation. If we stay all snow however...