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Deleted member 1449
Guest
That was probably the best run of the NAM yet for the Triad (~8" at GSO), although I noticed it was a bit slower than previous runs. All hail the NAM--for now.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Final total from NAM 3km.
yea, very encouraged to see the 3km back off a bit on the strength of the warm nose. hope to see that trend continue over the next 24hrs.
3k NAM a little less, but that's only relative. I would 100% take this in a heartbreak.
Backend looks great for GSP.
Backend looks great for GSP.
gotta love this look for us upstate and clt folks, less of a warm nose this run and it pays off.
Downeastnc
Member
Its also still snowing.....
WxBlue
Meteorologist
I'm in the jackpot zone from that NAM run. Sweet. What a forecasting nightmare this event will become, though... such a HUGE difference between GFS/NAM/RAP and Euro/UKMet/RGEM with CMC global in middle.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Stating the obvious here, we're approaching the general forecast lead time where you can't immediately ignore the NAM or any other CAMs for that matter even if they differ considerably from the globals. Very recent track record w/ winter storms this season and general experience/intuition wrt how CAMs (esp the NAM) are more equipped to handle overrunning precipitation driven by WAA & frontogenesis definitely makes me lean towards the GFS/NAM here even though the very long term track record of the EPS/Euro/UKMET is better. They're great medium range models but inside 36 hours (which is where we currently stand) you may want to reconsider & use them at your own risk.
Snownut
Member
I 85 special as usual through the upstate. North of that line probably sees 1-3" south likely a mix.
Man these maps are a thing of Beauty ❄ 
Also look at those rates, some maxing out at nearly 1.5 in just one hour
so unfortunate that there’s disagreement
Also look at those rates, some maxing out at nearly 1.5 in just one hour
so unfortunate that there’s disagreement
iGRXY
Member
My first call map. I am definitely higher on my amounts than some but I really do not think the Euro is correct. I am a little worried about the potential warm nose on the coast of ENC but that region could easily go up to 6-12" potentially. I think the upstate looks like 2-4" right now and south east around 2-5" towards Lancaster, Chesterfield and union county NC have a could potential to get high amounts but that warm nose scares me some there as well. I will update this again tomorrow or maybe tonight if something major changes.
Attachments
packfan98
Moderator
Latest tweet from NWS Raleigh.
I know it’s not the same setup, but I can’t help but think about the 1/3/2018 storm that the Euro completely blew it. 24 hours before that storm it was showing nothing outside of the immediate coastal areas of the Carolinas while the NAM was bringing accumulations back Central NC. The NAM was right on that one
My goodness this is so close to greatness for north Georgia.Great run for the Huntsville area
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Just like not 1 had last system .. EURO IS TRASH IN THESE SET UPS ... maybe not trash but ...
Avalanche
Member
I couldnt remember the model outputs on that one. Its nice to see that its trustworthiness has legs. Its proven itself even when its back is against the wall.
Fountainguy97
Member
Anyone else see what I see in the gulf this run? 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The EPS completely blew the overrunning precipitation that entered the southern piedmont and southwestern coastal plain of NC, even the day before that event.
The ECMWF certainly isn't infallible. I remember its maps were showing around a 95-100% chance of at least 6 inches of snow with the January 2017 winter storm for central NC, when a lot of us didn't even get an inch because it completely missed the warm nose.
Euro is not trash in any form or fashion, regardless of the setup. The NAM is on it's ------- own dude.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
It may not be trash but it sure is in the recycling bin. Been terrible here the past 12 months.
Snownut
Member
The NAM sure beat it out on last two storms. Overrunning storms the NAM is much better
I just remember that storm everyone was saying in Central NC how much they wished the Euro was on board. Even when we see the transfer to the coastal, coastal storms always seem to have a more expansive precipitation shield on the west side. That’s why I wouldn’t dismiss the Hwy 74 corridor from Union County east to get in on the deform band for at least a time
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The European model and its ensemble suite (EPS) are properly tuned & dispersed for the medium range only, inside 36-48 hours I wouldn't put anywhere as much stock in global NWP models vs CAMs especially when your precipitation is being driven by subgrid-scale processes on the spatiotemporal scale of a coarse gridded global model.
I was gonna say near Mobile/Pensacola.
The Euro is king beyond day 3. One we get into the short-range, mesoscale modeling typically trumps the Euro.
Edit: What Webb said
Edit: What Webb said
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
And I’m sure that is in the US as a whole (maybe even world wide?). But it comes down to what have you done for me lately?
That 18z NAM throws a slight bone to parts of N.AL and even down to N. Metro ATL but got to hope for continued slow-down if it slows down another 3-4 hours we could see overall better results across those parts...well either that are a more robust back-end precip field which would be a major win for all
Where are you exactly? Wilson?
WxBlue
Meteorologist
That's a fair assessment.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
They don't call it the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for nothing.
I’m simply talking to Webb’s point on its recent performance with winter storms and winter weather set ups .. the NAM is not alone almost all other CAMS show the similar set up the NAM is showing ... I believe the euro is a bit on its own right now .. as it usually has been “dude”
Shaggy
Member
Greenville
WxBlue
Meteorologist
That's a fair point, but I do think we need to be careful hugging the NAM.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Is it trash in general? No, but in a particular subset of cases, yes it definitely can be.
There is no way on earth I see this happening. I mean the ECMWF says noooo....
I got a nice 6” out of that one. I’m hoping for that again, but I’d take 2-3”.
To me the Euro is like all models and is a tool, not a forecast. It has its known biases that forecasters have to know to be able to use it effectively. The one question I always have in these situations when models are not agreement is if it was the Euro showing the big storm right now and the NAM not, would forecasters still lean on the Euro when making out there forecasts?
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Right now, at this range, it's a safe call to go with a blend of globals and CAMs until we get more data from short-range models. NAM is by itself with high amounts across the region... no matter how much people want to hug it. I really think what GFS/CMC have is a good idea of how things are gonna go at this moment.