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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

tramadoc said:
There is no way on earth I see this happening. I mean the ECMWF says noooo....
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yesterday you can say that and have a solid argument. Today not so much.

We have high-res mesoscale models CREATED for setups like this showing significant accumulations. This storm is literally "the perfect storm" for globals to miss. Weak vort energy with a weak LP... that's going to be hard for any global to grasp.

If the 00z set of mesoscale models hold and lock in then I think we have to toss globals. Its almost time to do that anyway
 
WxBlue said:
That's a fair point, but I do think we need to be careful hugging the NAM.
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The reason I'm leaning (not hugging) on the NAM/GFS vs the ECMWF has been outlined on here several times. The NAM has actually had considerable internal run-run consistency (this is like the 5th run in a row w/ a big storm in NC, the Euro & really the EPS even more so has varied more considerably on successive 0z/12z runs), what's actually forcing the ascent/precip in this setup plays right into the hands of the CAMs and is extremely disadvantageous to global NWP models and historically is poorly misrepresented in NWP models in general, and the Euro has completely whiffed on both storms in NC this season while the NAM led the way (especially w/ the Feb 8 2020 storm). Also, virtually every other GFS-related CAM (RAP, NMMB, NSSL, & ARW cores) and the GFS operational generally support the NAM's idea of more intense/expansive precip in the SE US, so this isn't happening by chance (although these are some variation of the GFS in a general sense).

Sure, both the 3km & 12km NAM may very well be dead wrong in the end, but there's legitimate reasoning to believe it in this case even over the Euro, UKMET, & EPS. Not to mention, by this time Thursday, the event will be already well underway, so we're basically about 36 ish hours from it actually happening, you should be giving high res CAMs more credence by no later than the 0z runs tonight. It's somewhat fair to want another run or two of global NWP, but it won't do much good after tonight.
 
ICON looks like it is walking in tandem like the NAM. That is the another one on the side of the NAM now.
 
Nerman said:
I'm going to say this is not like the Euro

View attachment 35314
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It’s showing a 1044 High in that position and the R/S line that for north??? I know the high will most likely be closer to 1040 but even then in that position should have the R/S further south into N AL, N GA and Upstate SC
 
Webberweather53 said:
The reason I'm leaning (not hugging) on the NAM/GFS vs the ECMWF has been outlined on here several times. The NAM has actually had considerable internal run-run consistency (this is like the 5th run in a row w/ a big storm in NC, the Euro & really the EPS even more so has varied more considerably on successive 0z/12z runs), what's actually forcing the ascent/precip in this setup plays right into the hands of the CAMs and is extremely disadvantageous to global NWP models and historically is poorly misrepresented in NWP models in general, and the Euro has completely whiffed on both storms in NC this season while the NAM led the way (especially w/ the Feb 8 2020 storm). Also, virtually every other GFS-related CAM (RAP, NMMB, NSSL, & ARW cores) and the GFS operational generally support the NAM's idea of more intense/expansive precip in the SE US, so this isn't happening by chance (although these are some variation of the GFS in a general sense).

Sure, both the 3km & 12km NAM may very well be dead wrong in the end, but there's legitimate reasoning to believe it in this case even over the Euro, UKMET, & EPS. Not to mention, by this time Thursday, the event will be already well underway, so we're basically about 36 ish hours from it actually happening, you should be giving high res CAMs more credence by no later than the 0z runs tonight. It's somewhat fair to want another run or two of global NWP, but it won't do much good after tonight.
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And that's fine to lean on NAM. I am not discounting it or other CAMs as they absolutely handle mesoscale features better. I agree that globals are not handling isentropic upglide well at all, but it's still making me anxious to see historically strong suite like Euro/UKMet/EPS so far apart from NAM/GFS. Even the latest RGEM is a bit south toward Euro/UKMet/EPS, which is enough to give me a pause in my experience with northern storms last few winters. I've seen NAM shoot high many times and bust by few inches too high. This is one of these storms a compromise between globals and CAMs is the best way to go with 48 hours left.
 
Weather channel/underground used to have the RPM model. It's basically the WRF-ARW right (WSI branded)? So we have a source through wright-weather.. anywhere else?
 
I don't know how you can discount the NAM, though. It has been consistent, and in fact just increased the totals. it is supposed to be better in the short range. We are 36 hours out from this unfolding and it is not backing down at all.
 
Sorry if it was posted earlier...but which nailed the current rain event in the Carolinas? Short Range/Cam or Globals (EURO) (Understand that every scenario is different, but trends I stick with)
 
WxBlue said:
And that's fine to lean on NAM. I am not discounting it or other CAMs as they absolutely handle mesoscale features better. I agree that globals are not handling isentropic upglide well at all, but it's still making me anxious to see historically strong suite like Euro/UKMet/EPS so far apart from NAM/GFS. Even the latest RGEM is a bit south toward Euro/UKMet/EPS, which is enough to give me a pause in my experience with northern storms last few winters. I've seen NAM shoot high many times and bust by few inches too high. This is one of these storms a compromise between globals and CAMs is the best way to go with 48 hours left.
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That's totally fair to think about it that way, I know many mets at local NWS WFOs hold this sentiment too. I certainly am not terribly nervous (yet), I'll feel pretty confident in the NAM/GFS camp if they hold serve thru 0z & the RGEM ticks north (again).
 
SimeonNC said:
Feel free to delete this or move it if it doesn't belong in this thread but not too long ago on Spectrum News, Matthew East said he was leaning towards the NAM more than the Euro. I think his probability map was already shared on this thread.
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Saw this in another thread from Meteorologist Hunter Ward but I thought for a novice like myself, that it was interesting and very insightful:

In these type of fast flows I tend to favor gridded models(NAM & GFS) over spectral(Euro) simply because they are better suited to handle the multiple back to back pieces of energy. A spectral model like the Euro divides the atmosphere up into 28 waves across the globe. Having two waves back to back like we are seeing is certainly giving the Euro trouble. It struggled with the last event where there was trailing overrunning precip. It has shown to me a tendency to struggle in these fast flows. The nam with those smaller grid points is better suited to resolve those little details, especially when several vorts are heading our way. We will see at 12z, I am pretty excited to watch model progression today to be honest.
 
gfs still looks like it has plenty of precip at hr 45, lets see how she goes from here.
 
Just pinged a TV MET amigo to get his pulse/feel on the NAM..and he gave me this GIF....we all know that even the MET's have their go to. Some are bound by the stations .ms-YhMEb8.gif
 
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