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Pattern February 11-13 2025

FallsLake said:
I'm at 35 right now. If we can get down to freezing, there could be some heavy frost -- as long as we keep clear skies.
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you will make it down to freezing easy, problem is we going to miss out on the front end precip that's where it's at...
 
BIG FROSTY said:
you will make it down to freezing easy, problem is we going to miss out on the front end precip that's where it's at...
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Right, I'm at 33 and airport already reporting 32. Temps not issue, precip bigger problem.... oh well
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Always seems to be something that's missing at every chance we get.
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Hey we've had a slight southward shift with the fgen precip shield. A few more miles and tomorrow morning gets way more interesting

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Guilford county/Greensboro, NC have declared tomorrow a remote learning day due to the WAA issued. I thought all the winter weather is supposed to be above the state line.
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
Don’t be surprised if that band keeps coming south wcpps doesn’t call at least a 2 hour delay if not remote learning


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Wake doesn't do remote learning for weather. Delay would not surprise me though especially if Durham pulls first.
 
superjames1992 said:
Not going to lie that I’ve been thinking the same thing, then wonder if I just suck at reading these maps and am missing something.
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Yeah I'm sure I'm missing something, the 750mb fgen is further north on the NAM but Rah NWS keeps mentioning the 850mb fgen as their basis for for precip further south. That looks solid on the NAM to me. Here is part of their discussion
"Additionally, an area of strong frontogenesis centered around 850 mb
is forecast in the guidance to develop over portions along and north
of Interstate 85 to over the northern Coastal Plain. This is likely
to support an area of banded precipitation along and north of
Interstate 85 to over the northern Coastal Plain."

Sounding sure looks as if there would be precip when the model is showing none and as @LukeBarrette has been harping on, the NAM struggled with this last month. Will be interesting to see just how this pans out

1739240406121.png
 
Here is that band on the GFS, take note of where the 850mb fgen is located. Now look how much further south that is on the NAM and yet the band is more north than the GFS.... hmmm

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Now the NAM
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Nice ring around moon tonight. 32/32 at 9pm all reporting Davidson Randolph Chatham. Clear skies should start frosting up soon. 50 mile shift on frontgen about 630 am is only piece of puzzle that will be missing.
Id never trust Nam with its footprint,as Luke pointed out, well documented its always to far north. Now thermals is another topic. Border counties will get a onset kiss of flakes tomorow. Book it.
 
Still sitting at 38/29 really surprised at how slow temp has fallen here. Most everyone I see posted is 4-6° colder than me.


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RBR71 said:
Yeah clear skies and radiational cooling in full effect, don't know what y'alls problem is out there. Lol elevation, you're closer to the warm nose
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How accurate do y'all think the weather underground stations are ? Some guy down the road has 33/32 but over in China Grove there's already a 30 and a 31 popping up? But on NWS it has Mooresville at like 36
 
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