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Pattern February 11-13 2025

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
203 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

NCZ007-021>025-110900-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0005.250211T1200Z-250212T1200Z/
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Including the cities of High Point, Mebane, Chapel Hill,
Hillsborough, Burlington, Graham, Carrboro, Winston-Salem,
Greensboro, Durham, Rougemont, and Roxboro
203 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of one half inch or less and ice accumulations
around one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Areas along and north of Interstate 85 and over the
northeast Piedmont.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$
 
BullCityWx said:
:cool:
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I know I’m going to be jealous of what you get here tomorrow. It never fails. I need to move north. 😂

I’ve actually moved since last winter, but I’m ~10 minutes from where I used to be in S Durham and am now in SE Orange, so basically the same situation when it comes to winter weather, hah!
 
LukeBarrette said:
Winter storm warning here in Blacksburg says 4 to 8 now. On the website they have us with 4.8 and .38 inches of freezing rain.
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Yeah, they have 6-8 from about Fredericksburg to Luray and south from LWX. 8-12 along the Blue Ridge and in Highland County. We'll see.
 
Down here in Atlanta, no threat of winter weather - but I am mildly interested to see just how strong this wedge will be tomorrow/wednesday. Both the HRRR and 3K NAM have Atlanta in the 40-45 degree range both tomorrow and Wednesday.

Currently NWS high on Wednesday is 63! So this would be a pretty impressive 20-25 degree bust for a day 2 forecast


IMG_3037.png
 
Rah NWS discussion about the fgen precip and why they are leaning on south side of most guidance:
The uncertainty with this precipitation band is where it will set up. The 12z HREF members differ on its location, with the HRRR/NSSL setting it up from Forsyth to Halifax and along the VA border, while other members show it setting up further north in central VA. Given the frontogenesis maximum at 850 mb along and north of Interstate 85, decided to side with some of the further south members, especially given the strong forcing for ascent/omega seen in high-res guidance. These areas with the first wave could see a half inch or less of sleet.
 
VARunner said:
The NAM shows barely any snow In southwest VA yet all other models have good event.
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That was my point in my thread earlier, completely off its rocker. Did the same thing with the Jan 5 system.
 
JP152 said:
Yeah, they have 6-8 from about Fredericksburg to Luray and south from LWX. 8-12 along the Blue Ridge and in Highland County. We'll see.
Click to expand...
Take Skyline Dr. it goes through the peaks like Blue ridge. That area will be the winner
 
lol Accuweather says 1-3 here tonight. biggest lol I've seen in a long time.

Mon Night

Snow

33°F
Cloudy, late snow, 1-3"
RealFeel®
High: 46° Low: 31°
 
It took probably a bit longer than thought considering my forecast, but the CAD has definitely locked in here, we've fallen 9 degrees already from it being 66 degrees.

Definitely not fun to have CAD busts when there's no chance of winter weather if it occurs later this week.
 
Honestly not super enthused at this point for much frozen south of the NC/VA border outside the northern foothills, much less snow, but I guess it’s better safe than sorry with the WWAs. Kind of painful to miss out when we have the chance because the frontogenesis band is just too far north.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
NC/VA border special. Wish I was north of hwy 158 on this one. That road never gets mentioned like 85/40/95/64 etc as a line of demarcation, but I think is appropriate here.

No expectations down this way except maybe some pingers at onset. Good luck to the border counties.
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Agreed and I'm south of it about 10 miles
 
Not expecting anything here other than onset wintry precip. Sparta, NC looks to get crushed (warning ice amounts) if anyone looking to chase in North Carolina. I wouldn’t recommend Boone or West Jefferson in this type of setup it’s mostly Sparta north-east.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Temps sure are falling really slow to be dark and clear, calm winds not much of a cold push it would seem. idk?
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I'm at 35 right now. If we can get down to freezing, there could be some heavy frost -- as long as we keep clear skies.
 
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