True though I will say the storm I mentioned did have snow sticking to the roads after about an hour, but obviously it melted as soon as the rates dropped
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Pattern February 11-13 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
As you stated heavy rates can overcome this so rates are very important. 0.5” QPF in two hours is going to net you a lot more accumulation than 0.5” over 6 hours in these situations. Also, I bet the roads if they got covered melted quickly with that one.
Can’t always go by stations for accurate ground temperatures. Have to check yourself for accuracy with temp probe
HRRR a little more north but still on high side, mostly sleet I'm sure
It'll be well into Va. tomorrow!
0z NAM drifting south with the front end thump! Maybe a good sign for border counties.
3k NAM
3k NAM
Lest we forget this model, it's pretty far south with frozen/freezing precip. lol
This won’t happen but man
A lot of people are probably gonna start out as rn/sleet or even predominantly sleet (85/40 corridor) 
Globals and NAMs trended colder. Starting to leak some ZR south of 40
J1C1111
Member
Pretty wild we are still getting these trends further south this close to game time. I just wonder how much further south they could keep trending. Would love to start out with some sleet on the front end just to say we got something out of this thing.
I can’t afford a flooded basement again. We just finished fixing things from Helene.
Cherry picking a model right now, but here's the 0z HRW-WRT-NSSL for the last frame(hour 48):
Freezing rain up to hour 48:
This would go along with what RAH mentioned, whereas this is the low possibility option:
Confidence is increasing that a brief initial `burst` of sleet Tues
morning will quickly transition to an all liquid forecast as the
warm nose rapidly strengthens and surface wetbulb temperatures
delineating the southern/eastern extent of freezing rain. Confidence
remains medium-low on where this will set up, but gradual warming
and lifting northward of the freezing surface wetbulb is expected
through the afternoon into southern VA. Continuing to advertise the
I-85 corridor as its initial starting point with the early morning
update. Some guidance suggest with nocturnal cooling and continued
northerly surface flow that the wetbulb freezing line may ooze back
south towards the I-85 corridor Tues night into Wed morning and
result in additional ice accrual, but confidence is low in this
scenario. Tues night into Wed morning will need to be watched
closely as model guidance is suggesting a slow moving band of
precipitation developing as low-level FGEN sags back into our area
and may result in higher ice accumulation than currently advertised.
Alternatively, central NC counties may remain just above freezing
Tues night into Wed and result in nothing more than a cold rain.
Freezing rain up to hour 48:
This would go along with what RAH mentioned, whereas this is the low possibility option:
Confidence is increasing that a brief initial `burst` of sleet Tues
morning will quickly transition to an all liquid forecast as the
warm nose rapidly strengthens and surface wetbulb temperatures
delineating the southern/eastern extent of freezing rain. Confidence
remains medium-low on where this will set up, but gradual warming
and lifting northward of the freezing surface wetbulb is expected
through the afternoon into southern VA. Continuing to advertise the
I-85 corridor as its initial starting point with the early morning
update. Some guidance suggest with nocturnal cooling and continued
northerly surface flow that the wetbulb freezing line may ooze back
south towards the I-85 corridor Tues night into Wed morning and
result in additional ice accrual, but confidence is low in this
scenario. Tues night into Wed morning will need to be watched
closely as model guidance is suggesting a slow moving band of
precipitation developing as low-level FGEN sags back into our area
and may result in higher ice accumulation than currently advertised.
Alternatively, central NC counties may remain just above freezing
Tues night into Wed and result in nothing more than a cold rain.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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NWS Blacksburg newest update:
More confident on widespread icing, more confident on Blacksburg getting a solid thump and less confident about Roanoke getting that same thump (shocker).
Same here. I feel like I'm just getting back some semblance of normalcy at the house post-Helene. Can't take 5-7" of rain here though. The storm really wrecked typical drainage patterns.
Looks like a guaranteed COLD rain for Big Frosty!
Yep looking like the coldest of rains for most of us. Maybe one or two IPs to start with and then pure misery
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Hey, I mean as long as Lynchburg and Richmond score again thats all that matters we know how starved central VA and up has been ....(Rolls eyes)
Pilotwx
Member
happy to be in the game again but it would be cool if we could break past the 4 inch barrier. don't feel great about this... feels sleety
Turner Team
Member
Hopefully here in Roanoke, we will get more sleet than freezing rain after the changeover. That's what usually happens here during these kind of setups.
Nomanslandva
Member
If we do get cold enough for ZR, I am worried about the duration of the wedge. They can be stubborn to break down here in the valley and some models show it holding into early Thursday. I'd like to see that fronto band a little farther south just like everyone else on here
Some of those local in house models are still a bit south.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
You should be right in this case with how the NAM is depicting where the warm nose is located. Still very cold around 850 after the warming.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Alright so heres my thoughts on this event, especially with early on in the system with ptypes and where the snow shield sets up. I draw a lot of comparisons to the 1/5 system to this one. The 1/5 system was a much stronger wave overall and CAD was a bit stronger with that one. Still similar processes involved here. Something a lot of people maybe remember is how the NAM tried to depict the snow shield in that last system and how far north developed it leaving southern and SW VA with a little snow but mostly getting missed out on the precipitation. While the times here are not exactly the same you can see how wrong it was.
While the NAM is great at sensing warm noses, its overestimation of WAA sends the precip too far north in most setups. I'm not doubting that the DC area is going to get a good snowstorm but the 10+ totals are laughable in my opinion because it sends the precip too far north for too long. Now that I have got this explanation out of the way I can talk about this system. Most modeling is not like the NAM as simple as that, and sets up the snow shield and solid banding starting south of Roanoke area.
(I will note the HRRR is too far south here which is typical as it normally runs cold) Overall you can see the NAM is out to lunch with this and for the reasons I stated above it will be wrong again on where this inital front end thump sets up. I think the oddest thing about the NAMs depiction is how the 850 mb frontogensis is setup in a way that would make you think the snow shield would be further south but its not. Compared to the RGEM which in my opinion does really well at figuring out banding, (been my go to for years now in this case) its similar to the RGEM so why are they not the same???
Anyways thats all I got for my analysis of this event, NAM will overestimate WAA and push the best banding north and will be wrong just like it was in the 1/5 system. Look I'm ready to eat my words here because meteorology is an extremely complicated science, but I'm confident my thoughts here will be close to what happens. I'm thinking a solid 3-5 inches in the Blacksburg and Roanoke area before a switch to sleet/frz rain. Edit here: not sure why the images are messed with the typing, my edit screen shows it in the correct way
While the NAM is great at sensing warm noses, its overestimation of WAA sends the precip too far north in most setups. I'm not doubting that the DC area is going to get a good snowstorm but the 10+ totals are laughable in my opinion because it sends the precip too far north for too long. Now that I have got this explanation out of the way I can talk about this system. Most modeling is not like the NAM as simple as that, and sets up the snow shield and solid banding starting south of Roanoke area.
(I will note the HRRR is too far south here which is typical as it normally runs cold) Overall you can see the NAM is out to lunch with this and for the reasons I stated above it will be wrong again on where this inital front end thump sets up. I think the oddest thing about the NAMs depiction is how the 850 mb frontogensis is setup in a way that would make you think the snow shield would be further south but its not. Compared to the RGEM which in my opinion does really well at figuring out banding, (been my go to for years now in this case) its similar to the RGEM so why are they not the same???
Anyways thats all I got for my analysis of this event, NAM will overestimate WAA and push the best banding north and will be wrong just like it was in the 1/5 system. Look I'm ready to eat my words here because meteorology is an extremely complicated science, but I'm confident my thoughts here will be close to what happens. I'm thinking a solid 3-5 inches in the Blacksburg and Roanoke area before a switch to sleet/frz rain. Edit here: not sure why the images are messed with the typing, my edit screen shows it in the correct way
not to just piggyback on this diligently researched post but this is pretty much what i think, although i think i'm a little more concerned with the warm nose than you are
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
I'm worried about the warm nose forsure but yeah my thoughts above about the NAM and its crapiness is that its not close to other modeling. Hope I don't eat my words!!!
More times than not it does come in quicker than modeled, let's see if we can squeeze out a few flakes/pellets
I have snow in my RAH point forecast. White rain would be a win. No accumulation expected, of course.
Wow Rah just issued WWA for tomorrow for border counties, including mine. Let's go!! Lol
A tier of counties south of border actually
Caesar
Member
Up here in Wytheville looking like a good 2 to 4 inches before a changeover to freezing rain. Freezing rain is my concern with some models spitting out a inch of ice. The official forecast is for .25 to .50 ice. Nasty dangerous travel Tuesday am to Wednesday midday.
gonna see a thin layer of sleet on many decks to start out. 
Wow I’m under a WWA now. Of course, being in the southern part of Orange County, I don’t think the advisory is as meant for MBY as folks further north in the county.
