Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The 3k NAM was also advertising some freezing drizzle here before main precip arrives. That’s not good, especially that it’s 21 currently.
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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I’m taking names in my notebook! How do you spell GSP? Bear with me!
Moisture looking like it won’t be an issue, and there are some pretty low DPs, gonna be a rough commute depending on timing
Overdone given marginal sfc temps but matches the map I made well 
Wow so .. it looks like the RGEM remains king as it was one of the only models to keep the threat for freezing precip .. although it may have been too aggressive with the expansion of freezing precip (as time will answer this) it still was one of the only models seeing it further out until recently the EURO picked it up
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
01Z HRRR coming in looking more like recent NAM run
The hrrr continues to get more aggressive with the ZR and keeps getting slightly colder
Really is an interesting and sneaky little system for w/nw Piedmont, might be a challenging commute for y'all and not much attention to it.
If GSO gets something like this and especially more, that would make 5 significant wintry precip events in only ~5 weeks' elapsed time at GSO, an extremely rare occurrence.
To give one an idea of the degree of cold involved, KSAV had a daytime high of only 43 and a high since midnight of only 46, which is 17 BN! Ocean's modification prevented with persistent NNE winds. They got down to as low as 38 with rain. They're now at 42.
This all stems from hour 0… keeps getting colder /more juiced 
rburrel2
Member
Yep. Rgem still king of short range and NAM still complete hot garbage. In other news, water is wet.
Yep. RGEM been all over it for 3 days now
At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if even Raleigh got a light glaze especially on elevated surfaces were sitting at 33/22 with precip already at the border at 9:30 pm …
Only because a broken clock is right twice a day. I don't think the RGEM is doing better due to a superior model algorithm, but rather changes seen at initialization.
Onset CAD ice events rarely trend/favor areas to the east; rather cold is underestimated to the southwest. I still think this is a central GSO northwest shield, but there's a little more wiggle room down towards Davidson/Rowan, maybe CLT.
34/20 at JQF, gonna be close. precipitation Approaching the NC/SC border 
Yeah the RGEM has been superior at H5 but has a really bad cold bias sometimes. I could really be a great model if it’s cold bias was fixed
HRRR just lowered temps even more in the earlier hours 
It appears the temperature just dropped 4 degrees in the last hour in Columbia, SC. Can anyone confirm that?
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Temp has went up 2 degrees in the last hour IMBY