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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

Ollie Williams said:
Only because a broken clock is right twice a day. I don't think the RGEM is doing better due to a superior model algorithm, but rather changes seen at initialization.
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Eh it’s not that broken other than yes it probably extends the cold air too much .. but clearly it’s getting colder at initialization so it’s cold bias actually helping it out right now. But regardless no other model had frozen precip even in NC with this system .. only the RGEM and it never really lost it either. Past 4 weekends it has proven to be superior in getting the right idea in temp profile, H5 and extent of each precip type when we had to deal with all types some weekends ago. If it’s a broken clock then all other short range models and global in short term are shattered unusable clocks .. (although one could argue euro was also on top of this albeit later than the RGEM)
 
My temps bottoming out will stop once clouds roll in. But our ground is froze solid. So any moisture that falls will not only wetbulb/erase the degree or 2 rise from clouds when they arrive. Its already got the frozen ground waiting to freeze moisture on contact.
 
NCSNOW said:
My temps bottoming out will stop once clouds roll in. But our ground is froze solid. So any moisture that falls will not only wetbulb/erase the degree or 2 rise from clouds when they arrive. Its already got the frozen ground waiting to freeze moisture on contact.
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I'm interested to see where you end up, I went down to 33 or 34 before my clouds came in then quickly shot up to 39.5 where I stand. No frozen for me.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I'm interested to see where you end up, I went down to 33 or 34 before my clouds came in then quickly shot up to 39.5 where I stand. No frozen for me.
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Wish I could stay up long enough to see myself. 4am comes quick. Always get interested in cads pre event. Whether insitu or building in. Timed it about right tonight, assuming precip shows up.
Wetbulb is 24.
 
crawford76 said:
Light precipitation is starting to fall, while the temperature continues to rise. Columbia is now 2-3 degrees colder than Charlotte.
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Columbia dropped 6 degrees (38/35) in the last 2 hours. Light rain raised TDs.. from 29 to 35 in that same 2 hour period. (KCAE had low 20s TD at 9pm after being in the teens during the day).
 
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