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Wintry Feb 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Potential

Tulsa mentioning 1-2 inch per hour rates ?


The latest guidance, compared to 24 hours ago at least, is
suggesting that mid level cooling will occur faster which in turns
means a faster transition to snow could occur thus the potential
for significant snow accumulations is increasing across NE OK.
 
Memphis WFO firing warning shots in this morning's AFD:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
516 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

.UPDATE...

Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022/

DISCUSSION...
Well it looks like we will be dealing with a fairly significant
icing event for the Mid South later on this week. Today will be
another great day for the region as we warm into 60s again. Today
will be a great day to enjoy the weather as things will go down
hill Wednesday through Friday as a front will approach the region.
A few showers will develop tonight and should continue into
Wednesday. There could be a small break Wednesday before things
really go left. The arctic front will start to nose into the NE
AR/Mo Bootheel late in the day and temps there will start to fall.
Wednesday night through Thursday night is when the greatest chance
for impactful winter weather across the region.

Guidance is coming in more aggressive with the cold air and that
in turn is causing forecast ice accumulations to go up. Soundings
look very messy for the Mid South with several hours of Freezing
rain and sleet across the area. Some of the total are downright
nasty, but some of that is sleet. We have expanded the Winter
Storm Watch to include more of W TN, E AR, and a small portion of
MS. I am very concerned with the icing issues that this system
could pose as it could be fairly significant with numerous power
outages and very hazardous driving conditions. We will have to
monitor for the upgrade to Ice Storm Warnings and Winter Storm
Warnings...in all likelihood they would be Ice Storm Warnings as
snow will not be the dominant precip type. We are looking at the
possibility of 0.1 up to a half inch of ice possible across
portions of the Mid South when its all said and done. Again, the
time frame for the most significant icing looks to be late
Wednesday night through the day on Thursday. Please stay tuned to
the forecast because this is a very conditional situation and any
fluctuations in temperature or placement of the arctic front will
be the difference in you seeing a very cold rain or a significant
ice storm. Please stay weather aware as we try to sort out all of
the details over the next 24 hours.

Before all of the icing issues we will have heavy rainfall on the
warm side of this system. Up to 3 inches of rain over a good
portion of the area during the course of this event which may
cause localized flooding. Precipitation will taper off Thursday
night with temps in the 20s by morning under a brisk north wind.
Below normal temps and dry weather expected for the remainder of
the forecast period with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the
teens and 20s.
 
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