Wintry Feb 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Potential

[NWMSGuy]

Although the shifts appear small, I continue to see slight ticks southeast.

 

[Brent]

 

[HSVweather]

Although the shifts appear small, I continue to see slight ticks southeast.
View attachment 111915

Interesting to watch as hard to gauge the shallow cold air, could shift further south into north MS

 

[NWMSGuy]

Interesting to watch as hard to gauge the shallow cold air, could shift further south into north MS

Although Ice totals me be a little high with the Canadian, it appears to be holding serve with an Ice Storm over the mid-south. Been fairly consistent with its output and area of focus I would like to believe.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Slight movements on the EURO southeast for Ice Accums. compared to the 06Z.

 

[olhausen]

Although the shifts appear small, I continue to see slight ticks southeast.
View attachment 111915

Small for some. Difference of having power or not for others. Big change for middle Tennessee from 00z to 12z on the gfs.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This is a big storm boys. Reel it in!

 

[Usmeagle2005]

This is a big storm boys. Reel it in!

Hope it keeps going south.?

 

[BufordWX]

18z Nam is much colder at both the surface and upper levels as well as faster with pushing the front in. Good trends for better snow chances today.

 

[Brent]

18z Nam is much colder at both the surface and upper levels as well as faster with pushing the front in. Good trends for better snow chances today.View attachment 111977View attachment 111978

I hope we get buried ? I wanna see a foot all along the 44 corridor

I should mention the TWC app hasn't budged on me being around that for 2 days now

 

[BufordWX]

Nam is a whole winter adventure. Has widespread precipitation much earlier then other models this is 9:00 AM.


Then the snow band pushes in after dark.

 

[Brent]

Nam is a whole winter adventure. Has widespread precipitation much earlier then other models this is 9:00 AM.
View attachment 111984

Then the snow band pushes in after dark.View attachment 111985

I'm still hyped about that Wednesday night timeframe... If we're gonna get near blizzard conditions it's gonna be then

 

[Brent]

The NAM clown map is looking like the GFS ?

 

[NWMSGuy]

So so close for us here in MS. Getting awfully close.

 

[StormStalker]

Small for some. Difference of having power or not for others. Big change for middle Tennessee from 00z to 12z on the gfs.
View attachment 111965
View attachment 111966
View attachment 111967

Will be interesting to watch over the next few days to see if it continues to inch southward. Still close enough to keep an eye on but not to worried about it yet.

 

[BufordWX]

The NAM clown map is looking like the GFS ?View attachment 111992

It’s not even done snowing by then either.
This storm is a whopper.

 

[NWMSGuy]

This is a pretty telling photo between the 6Z and 18Z. ?

 

[Brent]

It’s not even done snowing by then either.
This storm is a whopper.View attachment 111996

All those storms this month we had an hour or two window

This is surreal and its even more weird since it's 71 out ?

 

[NWMSGuy]

Memphis WFO recognizing the Southeastward shift of recent models in their afternoon AFD:

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Looking increasing likely
that a winter storm impact parts of the Mid-South during this time
period. The arctic front will continue sagging southeast
overnight Wednesday. 12z model runs are substantially colder than
previous editions and this forecast reflects that. By 12z
Thursday the front should already be SE of Memphis. Cold air will
deepen behind the front causing a changeover to wintry
precipitation starting Wednesday evening across extreme NE AR and
the MO Bootheel spreading gradually SE overnight into JBR area and
NW TN by morning. A deep layer of warm air on top of a shallow
layer cold air will result in mainly freezing rain initially. A
potent mid level shortwave and associated surface wave will move
NE along the front bringing another round of precipitation to the
area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Right now we are looking
at a quarter inch of ice or more across NE AR/the MO Bootheel and
NW TN. This would result in numerous power outages. Lesser amounts
of ice are expected the remainder of eastern AR and southwest TN.
These amounts are really just first guesses at this point. Ice
accumulation depends on many factors including drop size and wind
so uncertainty is high. Also, the location of the heaviest ice
axis is dependent on the location of the arctic front which has
certainly shifted southeastward with the most recent models runs.

 

[Flotown]

Will be interesting to watch over the next few days to see if it continues to inch southward. Still close enough to keep an eye on but not to worried about it yet.

I feel like we will atleast changeover here toward the end