Euro HAMMERS western North Carolina oh my 
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NCSNOW
Member
I will take my chances. need a 35 mile shift, Golden.
Classic climo storm.Euro HAMMERS western North Carolina oh my
That would be far and away the worst ice storm I ever seen living here if that verified. Unpopular opinion but at that point just give me 34 and rain I'd take that over a crippler ice storm
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NCSNOW
Member
Ukmet and euro lock step on footprints. Gotta find a small nudge for our temps. Inside 120 mark now and not sure how we can achieve this.
GFS is furthest NW with footprint. Canadian, Icon in between the two:
GFS is furthest NW with footprint. Canadian, Icon in between the two:
This...and yet I'm not convinced we are going to see an ice storm in the triangle just yet. Maybe a repeat of earlier this week
EPS has been locked in for a couple of days now..I don't really see a north trend past 36-48 hours but rather a tightening of the members. Ice storm probs going up.
Past 3 days of runs
Past 3 days of runs
WolfpackHomer91
Member
This would only be probably 1/10" - 1/4" ICE forecast. To get anything over 1/2" you need to be seeing 2" or more ICE on models. Cut the ICE accums by 75% most times. This is in no way a MAJOR ICE event as modeled
Yeah. EPS locking in on climo area snow, with 85 corridor ice storm, latest run looks to double down on that. Your not lying it’s getting consistent
packfan98
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Compared to 0z at Hour 144(160 at 0z), it would appear EPS is further east with the biggest cluster of low locations
Euro zoomed in for the close up. FRAM ice as well. Pretty wild for Raleigh 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
These fram totals are probably closer to being correct. If so, that would be a pretty bad ice storm for a good chunk of central NC
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A 10 inch mean into north central NC? Us Charlotte to RDU guys will be yet again trying to use telepathy to pull that south about 50 miles
90% of that is some form of an ice storm
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
EPS has been looking like this for a few days now with ice accumulation, certainly looks consistent and concerning at the same time if this holds
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Locked and loaded. EPS is staying consistent. If this continues into Sunday it’s time to dust off generators 
Yes, but 50 miles further south would be a significant snow and ice storm, not just ice.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Whats wild is if you look at the Snow placement on the maps you only need 50-70 Miles SE and ALL of our big citys "85 and N/W" would be satisfied imo with a 3-6" Range
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One thing to remember is the south trend we've seen on the regular this year
weather bubba
Member
The Euro pretty much stayed the same albeit it was a little colder for many sections. I know ice totals on the model maps are overdone but even 1/4 of the totals it is showing would cause major headaches for folks in the RDU area. Here's hoping future model runs move those snowfall totals more south later today. I'm not going to hold my breath while I'm waiting for that to happen though.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I certainly hope we see a southward trend, it’s been awhile since we’ve seen a significant ice storm in the central portion of NC
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Maybe I'm wrong but my gut says if this track verifies, classic Miller A, we have less icing issues than what models are currently showing. Would be more rn/sn transition with small corridor of mix bag. Time will tell
WolfpackHomer91
Member
FWIW that dark green had moved north this AM... its back now
we need it now or a good portion of metropolitan NC is going to be in the dark
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
weather bubba
Member
That south trend has been happening as we get within three days of these events this winter. It wouldn't take too much of a south trend to give most of us a better shot of seeing more snow and less ice. The question for me at least is have the models finished the northwest trend that has been seen for most of the day? I hope they have.
Some of y’all NC folks need to be out checking your generators yesterday. This is going to be a high impact winter weather event for a lot of people. If a euro like solution holds serve and we begin to get that uptick in precip field it’s going to be a memorable late season storm. Epic, even
That’s something that I keep thinking just from a climo standpoint. I could definitely still see a wide area getting a major sleet storm with this, but typically you only see a very narrow corridor of ZR with a Miller A. Also it looks to me like a lot of the area that’s showing these huge ice amounts have 925mb temperatures below freezing which would mean more sleet
Classic looking NC mtns slugging.
Exactly what I was thinking. I am not in the least worried about a freezing rain event.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
No, you are correct ... Miller A's typically have a smaller transition zone than Miller B's. It's still too early to know exactly where that rn/sn line sets up, but from everything I have seen today, it's pointing to the I-85 corridor. That would also be in line with climo. Can we get a little south push and get more folks in the game? .... Only time will tell. That NW trend on today's 12z runs was certainly concerning.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I am sitting at 23 degrees (-5C) on that map. Should be cold enough for all sleet. Of course it depends how deep the sub-freezing layer is. I don't have Euro soundings, but if the only melting layer is between 800mb-700mb, then it will definitely be sleet.
RDUHeatIsland
Member
12z Euro AI is even more south/suppressed. Now that's interesting