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Wintry Feb. 19-20

KyloG said:
Exactly what I was thinking. I am not in the least worried about a freezing rain event.
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Me either. If snow is rare IMBY, a true ZR storm is even rarer, the combination of needing ample qpf with a constant feed of cold dry air from the NE to cool the latent heat release of the ice forming never works out for MBY. We don't have that here. It'll be sleet or rain IMO. I don't know about the Miller A thing. We have so few I can't differentiate what they do. All we get is Miller Bs or Miller A/B hybrids which always have ice.
 
SnowNiner said:
Me either. If snow is rare IMBY, a true ZR storm is even rarer, the combination of needing ample qpf with a constant feed of cold dry air from the NE to cool the latent heat release of the ice forming never works out for MBY. We don't have that here. It'll be sleet or rain IMO. I don't know about the Miller A thing. We have so few I can't differentiate what they do. All we get is Miller Bs or Miller A/B hybrids which always have ice.
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A miller A can certainly have ZR. It’s just that typically it’s in a much more narrow corridor than what these ice accumulation maps are showing. In the January 2017 storm I was in that corridor that was only about 30 miles wide but had a .3 of ice accrual from about 10 hours of ZR
 
I think if the Euro AI kept the same 5h look, you'd see it trend a good better wetter for our area. It dialed in on the coastal snow at 5h pretty good at this lead time I think, but was way too dry on the northern side of things up until a day or two before the event.
 
To me the AI seems to believe our 50/50 will be moving the the East quickly allowing the storm to basically be a fish snow storm as it escapes to the East, missing pretty much everybody from the Carolinas to New England. This has always been the major concern to me
 
MichaelJ said:
To me the AI seems to believe our 50/50 will be moving the the East quickly allowing the storm to basically be a fish snow storm as it escapes to the East, missing pretty much everybody from the Carolinas to New England. This has always been the major concern to me
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EPS pretty much shuts the door on a whiff…not a single member at day 5-6 is a whiff

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SnowNiner said:
Well, the NAVGEM matches the 12z AI with the whiff! lol. I give up. No idea what's happening here.
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What's happening here is the AI is still learning, my guess is it will start to shift back NW like it has previously. Having the JMA in it's camp isn't exactly noteworthy lol
 
rburrel2 said:
Man, that's not even close for the big cities up North. Those guys have to be nervous right now.
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i saw some NE/Mid-Atlantic folks salivating over the trends from overnight runs in their favor, and it was from people who just scored big at least twice in the past 6 weeks lol. let them be nervous!
 
VARunner said:
How good has the EURO AI been this winter?
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In the day 5-6 timeframe... it's been better than any other deterministic model and it's not close.

The main thing the Euro AI is telling me today is to expect all the other globals to start coming in further south and colder. The odds it starts getting more amped on the ICON/GFS/CMC/Euro are very very low, imo.
 
hky1894 said:
The euro ai was giving mby 12-24 for like 7 straight runs last storm that ended up hitting northern Virginia suppressed and east is fine at this stage. End result from last storm was 33 and rain after euro ai honked for days.


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True, but it wasn't far off at 120hrs out. It had honed in by then. Those 7 straight runs were a much further lead time... and it gradually ticked further north to what actually verified in the 120-168hr timeframe.. right now it's been ticking south every run and we are at hr 120 to the event.
 
rburrel2 said:
True, but it wasn't far off at 120hrs out. It had honed in by then. Those 7 straight runs were a much further lead time... and it gradually ticked further north to what actually verified in the 120-168hr timeframe.. right now it's been ticking south every run and we are at hr 120 to the event.
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I'm with you, Its been as correct, if not more so than the physics models. Gets the big picture ( footprints/ h5 players pegged out and placed) pretty accurately. As always the back yard mitigating factors have to be worked out the ole fashioned way. Just like they still do with the physics models . BL, obs upstream, initialization errors etc.
 
rburrel2 said:
In the day 5-6 timeframe... it's been better than any other deterministic model and it's not close.

The main thing the Euro AI is telling me today is to expect all the other globals to start coming in further south and colder. The odds it starts getting more amped on the ICON/GFS/CMC/Euro are very very low, imo.
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I look forward to the 18z model suite. It was good to us yesterday. :)
 
One thing i'm digging on the Euro AI, if it's right.... it's got a decaying area of light snow that pivots over most of NC/SC Early Thursday morning that would be maybe even high ratio powder type stuff.

That's two runs in a row now that's shown this shield of light precip. It ain't much, but I would gladly take an inch of powder.

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