WolfpackHomer91
Member
Thats all we should be worried about 5 days out.... GFS/EURO/CMC/UK line em up they all are very similar in placement .... Lock that in first then the rest will follow based off Climo of the track historically
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packfan98
Moderator
Did someone post the 12z MOGREPS?
don't think this will be raleigh's storm, sorry guys
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Maybe I'm thinking about different time frames but the AI kept painting inches of snow for the upstate and piedmont areas for days, for both Jan storms and it ended up being completely off. I think the AI has been very poor this year. Consistent for days at a time then it seems to make big concessions towards other models late. So consistently bad.
You thinking a GFS solution?
Never was thinking a pure or near-pure snowstorm but hoping more slight-sn to heavy ip and perhaps small glaze of zr as opposed to just a hard zr/rn storm. Are you seeing just a cold rain set up for rdu in the end?
rburrel2
Member
This is a pretty good Day 5 battle between the AI models and the regular globals. GFS graphcast, Euro Graphcast, Euro AI, Pangu all are in the same general camp with the handling of the northern low/cut off.
Icon/GFS/Euro/EPS/CMC are all cutting if off much quicker and further West. (EPS is closest to middle ground).
One side has to fold pretty soon.
Icon/GFS/Euro/EPS/CMC are all cutting if off much quicker and further West. (EPS is closest to middle ground).
One side has to fold pretty soon.
packfan98
Moderator
Thanks. I'm curious if the National Blend of Models on Pivotal show Ice amounts? Weatherbell doesn't. I'm afraid we are tracking an ice storm for many.
They do, actually posted those to start the thread
. Newest run going now, will post later
MichaelJ
Member
I will say this, if the UKMET and EURO agree that has historically been a trough combo to beat
Cad Wedge NC
Member
In the end, if the progressive models are right, it might be nobody's storm. Still concerned about the progressive solutions.
It’s ok to be confused. I literally showed you 3 days of model runs of the AI from day 6 and had the general idea correct.
I’ve been concerned about that too or just too far east for us western guys.
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I say the 2 camps move toward each other with the blend then climbing north some inside of 48 hours
Yup. Always like a blend of 2 or more disagreeing models. If you do that for our current setup, it’s a slop event for NC outside climo areas, snow-mix for climo areas/mountains snow for mid Atlantic
ensembles you mean right?
WolfpackHomer91
Member
This was made at 1130AM this AM. Notice who the track lines up with....
STORM TRACKING CHECKLIST -
- Determine Track
Haven’t seen a lot of sun angle or daylight stats out of Lick today. This explains it 
You’ve got a Miller A track meeting up with this kind of temp outlook. It has to snow I think. It can’t not snow. Go buy a shovel
You’ve got a Miller A track meeting up with this kind of temp outlook. It has to snow I think. It can’t not snow. Go buy a shovel
So we thinking this thing whiffs out to sea?
rburrel2
Member
Congrats to Mitch and Shawn... another nice cold powder snow.
Icon already looks better lol
Hot off the press
No chance.
Tsappfrog20
Member
SnowNiner
Member
One thing that's missing on this map to me, which I'm surprised is not there based on the 50/50 low placement is high pressure center in the NE. Imagine if we could have even a semi-strong high in NY to push the CAD, I think it would be a whole board hit. That low track is great, and by itself I'm surprised it won't snow IMBY.
It’s definitely better then that pathetic 12z run with the confluence/cold feed on top of us, thank goodness that 12z run didn’t continue its look
NCSNOW
Member
Yea thought about those things a lot past couple days. Also On my mind is with that track, Miller A can make their own Cold/ like a ULL. Tricky , but if you can get it to bomb off SC/GA Coast, not Delmarva, then you'd catch a nice 3 hour backside. Danger is it going haywire on the gulf coast , earlier as WAA will cremate your thermals. Always a fine line. What keeps it so intriguing.
atlweatherman
Member
can you show some more frames previous to that one you posted? wanna see what it shows for MS, AL, and GA folks. Thanks.
That small tick at 500mb above us =
I really just rather play along with that confluence in the NE holding back more. Thats the end result we truly need
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yeah that dropped the 2m temps 7-10 degrees, def need more where that came from
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NCSnowFan777
Member
No storm is ever RDU’s storm, can it just be summer already? This winter has taunted us enough with all these so called winter storms.
rburrel2
Member
Also I don't see any way the 18z ICON is gonna climb the coast with that look. A pretty big step towards the AI modeling.
N SC and Central NC clap in unison
rburrel2
Member
The 84hr 18z Rgem is a definite improvement over the 12z CMC at hr90 as well.
From RAH:
The next southern stream shortwave will then move across the
southern Plains and Deep South on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
spawning a surface low that both the GFS and ECMWF continue to
depict moving just off the Southeast US coast. With a cold dry air
mass in place ahead of the system and a favorable surface low track,
all major operational models (ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian) as well as
their respective ensemble members continue to show good potential
for frozen precipitation across at least a portion of our area on
Wednesday and Thursday. For example, the ECMWF ensembles depict a
50+% chance of at least an inch of snow across the NW half of
central NC, while GFS and CMC ensemble probabilities are lower. It
is still too early to provide too many details at this time, but it
appears our northern counties are most likely to experience a
significant winter storm, while the best chance for all or mostly
liquid is across our south, as is depicted on the 12z GFS. There
continues to be enough signal for warming aloft and cold air in the
low levels that all precipitation types are on the table, including
sleet and freezing rain. A lot will depend on the degree of phasing
that can occur between the southern stream wave and a northern
stream shortwave diving down from the Great Lakes, which the ECMWF
has more of compared to the GFS. The ECMWF solution would also
linger precipitation longer into Wednesday night and Thursday while
the GFS shuts it off quickly late Wednesday. Highest POPs (likely)
are on Wednesday afternoon and evening, decreasing to chance and
slight on Thursday, ending everywhere on Thursday night as skies
clear. It certainly looks like a juicy system with plenty of
moisture, as ensemble mean QPF reaches and exceeds an inch. Stay
tuned over the next few days as details should become clearer.
Temperatures will be highly dependent on the ultimate evolution of
the system, but both days are likely to be chilly with highs in the
30s and/or 40s.
The next southern stream shortwave will then move across the
southern Plains and Deep South on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
spawning a surface low that both the GFS and ECMWF continue to
depict moving just off the Southeast US coast. With a cold dry air
mass in place ahead of the system and a favorable surface low track,
all major operational models (ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian) as well as
their respective ensemble members continue to show good potential
for frozen precipitation across at least a portion of our area on
Wednesday and Thursday. For example, the ECMWF ensembles depict a
50+% chance of at least an inch of snow across the NW half of
central NC, while GFS and CMC ensemble probabilities are lower. It
is still too early to provide too many details at this time, but it
appears our northern counties are most likely to experience a
significant winter storm, while the best chance for all or mostly
liquid is across our south, as is depicted on the 12z GFS. There
continues to be enough signal for warming aloft and cold air in the
low levels that all precipitation types are on the table, including
sleet and freezing rain. A lot will depend on the degree of phasing
that can occur between the southern stream wave and a northern
stream shortwave diving down from the Great Lakes, which the ECMWF
has more of compared to the GFS. The ECMWF solution would also
linger precipitation longer into Wednesday night and Thursday while
the GFS shuts it off quickly late Wednesday. Highest POPs (likely)
are on Wednesday afternoon and evening, decreasing to chance and
slight on Thursday, ending everywhere on Thursday night as skies
clear. It certainly looks like a juicy system with plenty of
moisture, as ensemble mean QPF reaches and exceeds an inch. Stay
tuned over the next few days as details should become clearer.
Temperatures will be highly dependent on the ultimate evolution of
the system, but both days are likely to be chilly with highs in the
30s and/or 40s.
SnowNiner
Member
To me it looks like the -AO ridge flexes, pushes the TPV down and suppresses everything south/colder.
Maybe that's the 2 camps? Do the AIs flex the blocking keeping everything colder, and the globals ease up on it? That would explain the storm being weak on the AIs like @griteater warned.