I believe most the models predicted more snow and failed just like they have all year. No reason to get excited over anything but models do show another minor event which I like better than just one big one.
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Wintry Feb 11-13 2021 Ice Potential
- Thread starter SD
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NWMSGuy
Member
Is this a reliable short range model? This is ugly and would further extend the Winter Storm Watch south currently in play for Memphis and points North.
NCHighCountryWX
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NAM has a nasty wedge incoming. at 18z FRI I am at 60 degrees and by 00z I am near 40.
Lol WPC has been terrible, my weather App almost has more accuracy then them this year, but that looks solid
NCSNOW
Member
NWMSGuy
Member
If RGEM is anything close to right, Northwest Ms is taking a pounding at hour 44 + on the 12Z.
As much as I bash the ICON, this does have some support as there has been a signal for strong CAD in this timeframe for a few days. Also the NAM, and yes it’s still in its long range, is hinting at it as well. Also it follows the ICON’s tendencies lately of showing cold about a week out, showing warm for several days as several days ago it was pushing lots of warm air up east of the mountains, and then corrects back to a colder solution. It’s already starting that process again for the Monday/Tuesday timeframe next week
There’s more 
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Still looks really icy for the triad and northern/northwestern triangle.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BufordWX
Member
Looks like I’ll be getting in on the ice tomorrow as well. Just had a WWA issued for up to a tenth of an inch of ice from Midnight to 6:00 PM tomorrow.
BufordWX
Member
18z Hrrr is trying to get ice problems into Dallas.
This is exactly what I was mentioning in the other thread. The Euro has been doing this for the last couple months, ever since the -NAO started. It starts warming everything up 6-7 days out only to start trending colder inside 3-4 days out. Now the biggest difference is that there is true Arctic air in the lower 48 and significant snow pack to our north. I would be surprised if this look doesn’t get colder over the next couple of days. I thing winter weather is still very much on the table Friday/Saturday
Bannerdude
Member
18z NAM is a touch warmer at 925 but cooler at 850. Should drop the snow line further south into southern VA but overall about the same as 12z through 57.
Damn the globals are about to get burned by the NAM
BufordWX
Member
They’ve been getting buried. I think I heard it’s because they don’t have the grid resolution to get the true depth of the shallow layer of cold, thus leading to the euro for example being about 5-10 degrees too warm in spots right now.
Damn 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Uh oh.....
Without Second 
With second
With second
D
Deleted member 1449
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I'm dizzy trying to keep track of each one of these potential events.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
GFS v. 16 is running again...
Looking back the last couple months, the NAM has been doing pretty good with temps at this range. If anything it’s been maybe a couple degrees too warm. This could be a big warning shot if that CAD continues to trend stronger
Jessy89
Member
Well wasn’t expecting that. I think the NAM to cold for upstate sc.
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NAM hammers NC, somewhat of the upstate and Extreme NE GA by SAT am. REally builds down that Wedge late Friday in SAT AM. I drop almost 20 degrees from the start of Friday to the end of FRiday 12-00z
NWMSGuy
Member
Really not sure how to feel about this system yet. Winter Storm Watch just to the north and west. Where and when does the temp drop? HRRR looks to keep the frozen just to the west of the river and north. RGEM keeps saying “hope you are ready for lights out”!
ok, lets do this....see how we do... First date and time/ 18z RUN NAM and 18z RUN GFS and 12z RUN EURO (2/9/2021) Will update this on 00z and 12z runs..What yall think? (use the NAM and GFS 18z runs this time only)
Valid for SAT 6z (2/13/2021)
12z EURO
18z NAM
18Z GFS
Valid for SAT 6z (2/13/2021)
12z EURO
18z NAM
18Z GFS
The new 18 v16 GFS just said “nope” 
Wrong thread but the answer is the same for all events
NWMSGuy
Member
Memphis WFO just expanded their Winter Storm Watch to include two counties in MS, Desoto & Tunica. They have also expanded the Ice Storm Warning. Have a feeling these extensions might not be over just yet.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
It was better before it went MIA. Toss lol
Can you zoom this out for the whole region
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Colder 18Z euro run for Thursday night/Friday morning event.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Be really curious to see if the NAM jumps on this at 0Z. Pessimistic till it does.
Pretty obvious which model is probably gonna win 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
One bigger difference may be the NAM is bringing in precip for round 2 about this time. Euro appears rather dry.
That second round is suspect, it’s driven off WAA, and it can enhance the CAD dome, something to watch
That’s something to watch 
euro moves it in but hours later 
euro moves it in but hours later 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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All of the sudden Roanoke is watching?