• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Feb 11-13 2021 Ice Potential

The NAM FRAM...yikes

fram_acc.us_state_nc_va.png
 
These rain changing to freezing rain events often bust low on the ice because the cold air gets here late and the incoming cold advection often (but not always) can't overwhelm the effects of latent heat release from freezing, so many locations end up getting a lot more 32F and rain. Oth, this is a truly absurd air mass that's lurking to our NW so if it does get here a little earlier than some models show then this could be a problem
 
Webberweather53 said:
These rain changing to freezing rain events often bust low on the ice because the cold air gets here late and the incoming cold advection often (but not always) can't overwhelm the effects of latent heat release from freezing, so many locations end up getting a lot more 32F and rain. Oth, this is a truly absurd air mass that's lurking to our NW so if it does get here a little earlier than some models show then this could be a problem
Click to expand...
I think I remember seeing rain to freezing rain... Checks notes 0 times
 
Webberweather53 said:
These rain changing to freezing rain events often bust low on the ice because the cold air gets here late and the incoming cold advection often (but not always) can't overwhelm the effects of latent heat release from freezing, so many locations end up getting a lot more 32F and rain. Oth, this is a truly absurd air mass that's lurking to our NW so if it does get here a little earlier than some models show then this could be a problem
Click to expand...
The February 1994 Ice Storm was a rain to freezing rain/sleet set up that did become major for the Piedmont. Temperatures were in the low to mid 40s when rain started
 
Chazwin said:
The February 1994 Ice Storm was a rain to freezing rain/sleet set up that did become major for the Piedmont. Temperatures were in the low to mid 40s when rain started
Click to expand...
Yep and the NWS played catch up the whole time. We got over 12 hours of ice with that and somehow kept power. The fact that the CAD started during the event canceled out the latent teat release keeping most of us at freezing until the precip stopped. Another rain to ice and sleet event took place in SC in 1987. NC was already cold enough for it to start as mostly sleet there. We got between 1-2 inches of sleet out of that here. The Feb 17-18 event was yet another rain to ice and sleet event in both Carolinas. We had ice of and on for over 30 hours here and somehow kept power again.
 
Chazwin said:
The February 1994 Ice Storm was a rain to freezing rain/sleet set up that did become major for the Piedmont. Temperatures were in the low to mid 40s when rain started
Click to expand...

Ice storms like that which starts as rain and in the 40s then flip to ZR/IP are rare but so are instances where giant lobe of the TPV w/ near record low temps in the midwest. I'd consider it really unlikely at this point, esp if the precip rates are high which the 12km NAM is showing
 
SD said:
I think I remember seeing rain to freezing rain... Checks notes 0 times
Click to expand...

Storms like that can happen but they're really infrequent. This is the kind of setup you see for big ice storms in Texas & Oklahoma, Rocky Mtn cold air damming is no joke. We're also gonna have to work against cold air making it over the Apps to get here.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ice storms like that which starts as rain and in the 40s then flip to ZR/IP are rare but so are instances where giant lobe of the TPV w/ near record low temps in the midwest. I'd consider it really unlikely at this point, esp if the precip rates are high which the 12km NAM is showing
Click to expand...
Oh yeah, the reason I mentioned February 1994 is because of the hinting of the models to have some very sharp temperature gradients over short areas and that was very common in that storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Storms like that can happen but they're really infrequent. This is the kind of setup you see for big ice storms in Texas & Oklahoma, Rocky Mtn cold air damming is no joke. We're also gonna have to work against cold air making it over the Apps to get here.
Click to expand...
I really wouldn't be surprised to see this trend more to sleet than freezing rain
 
Webberweather53 said:
Storms like that can happen but they're really infrequent. This is the kind of setup you see for big ice storms in Texas & Oklahoma, Rocky Mtn cold air damming is no joke. We're also gonna have to work against cold air making it over the Apps to get here.
Click to expand...
Ive been meaning to ask about rocky mountain cold air damming! Seems rare and I don't hear much about it!. Wonder how far it extends.


Edit: After reading about it...yikes! It can last up to 10 days!
 
Last edited:
Willing to bet the NAM backs off due to changes at H5, watch me massively be wrong
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top