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Wintry Feb 11-13 2021 Ice Potential

The NAM FRAM...yikes

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These rain changing to freezing rain events often bust low on the ice because the cold air gets here late and the incoming cold advection often (but not always) can't overwhelm the effects of latent heat release from freezing, so many locations end up getting a lot more 32F and rain. Oth, this is a truly absurd air mass that's lurking to our NW so if it does get here a little earlier than some models show then this could be a problem
 
Webberweather53 said:
These rain changing to freezing rain events often bust low on the ice because the cold air gets here late and the incoming cold advection often (but not always) can't overwhelm the effects of latent heat release from freezing, so many locations end up getting a lot more 32F and rain. Oth, this is a truly absurd air mass that's lurking to our NW so if it does get here a little earlier than some models show then this could be a problem
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I think I remember seeing rain to freezing rain... Checks notes 0 times
 
Webberweather53 said:
These rain changing to freezing rain events often bust low on the ice because the cold air gets here late and the incoming cold advection often (but not always) can't overwhelm the effects of latent heat release from freezing, so many locations end up getting a lot more 32F and rain. Oth, this is a truly absurd air mass that's lurking to our NW so if it does get here a little earlier than some models show then this could be a problem
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The February 1994 Ice Storm was a rain to freezing rain/sleet set up that did become major for the Piedmont. Temperatures were in the low to mid 40s when rain started
 
Chazwin said:
The February 1994 Ice Storm was a rain to freezing rain/sleet set up that did become major for the Piedmont. Temperatures were in the low to mid 40s when rain started
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Yep and the NWS played catch up the whole time. We got over 12 hours of ice with that and somehow kept power. The fact that the CAD started during the event canceled out the latent teat release keeping most of us at freezing until the precip stopped. Another rain to ice and sleet event took place in SC in 1987. NC was already cold enough for it to start as mostly sleet there. We got between 1-2 inches of sleet out of that here. The Feb 17-18 event was yet another rain to ice and sleet event in both Carolinas. We had ice of and on for over 30 hours here and somehow kept power again.
 
Chazwin said:
The February 1994 Ice Storm was a rain to freezing rain/sleet set up that did become major for the Piedmont. Temperatures were in the low to mid 40s when rain started
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Ice storms like that which starts as rain and in the 40s then flip to ZR/IP are rare but so are instances where giant lobe of the TPV w/ near record low temps in the midwest. I'd consider it really unlikely at this point, esp if the precip rates are high which the 12km NAM is showing
 
SD said:
I think I remember seeing rain to freezing rain... Checks notes 0 times
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Storms like that can happen but they're really infrequent. This is the kind of setup you see for big ice storms in Texas & Oklahoma, Rocky Mtn cold air damming is no joke. We're also gonna have to work against cold air making it over the Apps to get here.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ice storms like that which starts as rain and in the 40s then flip to ZR/IP are rare but so are instances where giant lobe of the TPV w/ near record low temps in the midwest. I'd consider it really unlikely at this point, esp if the precip rates are high which the 12km NAM is showing
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Oh yeah, the reason I mentioned February 1994 is because of the hinting of the models to have some very sharp temperature gradients over short areas and that was very common in that storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Storms like that can happen but they're really infrequent. This is the kind of setup you see for big ice storms in Texas & Oklahoma, Rocky Mtn cold air damming is no joke. We're also gonna have to work against cold air making it over the Apps to get here.
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I really wouldn't be surprised to see this trend more to sleet than freezing rain
 
Webberweather53 said:
Storms like that can happen but they're really infrequent. This is the kind of setup you see for big ice storms in Texas & Oklahoma, Rocky Mtn cold air damming is no joke. We're also gonna have to work against cold air making it over the Apps to get here.
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Ive been meaning to ask about rocky mountain cold air damming! Seems rare and I don't hear much about it!. Wonder how far it extends.


Edit: After reading about it...yikes! It can last up to 10 days!
 
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Willing to bet the NAM backs off due to changes at H5, watch me massively be wrong
 
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Chazwin said:
The February 1994 Ice Storm was a rain to freezing rain/sleet set up that did become major for the Piedmont. Temperatures were in the low to mid 40s when rain started
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I'm probably not in this one but if it is another Feb 94 storm I'll happily pass. 96, 2000, 2002, and 2005 all had big ice storms in my area but 94 blew them all away. That was a big dog I'll let lie somewhere else.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I'm probably not in this one but if it is another Feb 94 storm I'll happily pass. 96, 2000, 2002, and 2005 all had big ice storms in my area but 94 blew them all away. That was a big dog I'll let lie somewhere else.
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For me February 2000 and December 2002 were the worst. The 2/2000 came just a few days after the Crusher so many tree limbs around my place had been weakened from the heavy wet snow. 12/2002 came early enough in the season that there was still a ton of leaves on the trees to just give the ice something to accrual on and add more weight. What’s bad is, and I know I’ve said this before, CLT metro is so overdue for a big ice storm.
 
Don't get your hopes up...there is a force field that starts at the NC/VA state line

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Just want to throw this out here for the few Roanoke, VA folks like myself. NAM 12km and RGEM both show around 3–6 hours of heavy snow late Thursday night. Something to watch forsure. I think everyone could agree that getting snow for people on this board under this ------ ice storm would be awesome. IMG_4329.jpg
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
smast16 said:
Thankfully this year we've seen the temp reversal starting about 24-36 hours out and saves us from the ice. Otherwise Id probably still be out of power.
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I think the only thing that’s concerning this time is we have some of the coldest air on our side that can easily be wedged in, but yeah watch this somehow trend to 34 and rain
 
Really wondering what is going on with the Weather Service in Memphis. Looks like Little Rock has taken over operations?
 
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