I believe most the models predicted more snow and failed just like they have all year. No reason to get excited over anything but models do show another minor event which I like better than just one big one.
Wintry Feb 11-13 2021 Ice Potential
- Thread starter SD
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Is this a reliable short range model? This is ugly and would further extend the Winter Storm Watch south currently in play for Memphis and points North.
NAM has a nasty wedge incoming. at 18z FRI I am at 60 degrees and by 00z I am near 40.
Lol WPC has been terrible, my weather App almost has more accuracy then them this year, but that looks solid
If RGEM is anything close to right, Northwest Ms is taking a pounding at hour 44 + on the 12Z.
As much as I bash the ICON, this does have some support as there has been a signal for strong CAD in this timeframe for a few days. Also the NAM, and yes it’s still in its long range, is hinting at it as well. Also it follows the ICON’s tendencies lately of showing cold about a week out, showing warm for several days as several days ago it was pushing lots of warm air up east of the mountains, and then corrects back to a colder solution. It’s already starting that process again for the Monday/Tuesday timeframe next week
Looks like I’ll be getting in on the ice tomorrow as well. Just had a WWA issued for up to a tenth of an inch of ice from Midnight to 6:00 PM tomorrow.
This is exactly what I was mentioning in the other thread. The Euro has been doing this for the last couple months, ever since the -NAO started. It starts warming everything up 6-7 days out only to start trending colder inside 3-4 days out. Now the biggest difference is that there is true Arctic air in the lower 48 and significant snow pack to our north. I would be surprised if this look doesn’t get colder over the next couple of days. I thing winter weather is still very much on the table Friday/Saturday
18z NAM is a touch warmer at 925 but cooler at 850. Should drop the snow line further south into southern VA but overall about the same as 12z through 57.
Damn the globals are about to get burned by the NAM
They’ve been getting buried. I think I heard it’s because they don’t have the grid resolution to get the true depth of the shallow layer of cold, thus leading to the euro for example being about 5-10 degrees too warm in spots right now.
