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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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KyloG said:
It's like staring into the sun when looking at that GOA ridge.

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Yeah that’s really the killer. The only thing that would save a SER from popping with that ridge is blocking....hopefully if that is to remain thru late January we get some help from the -AO/-NAO at some point.


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GaWx said:
Yeah, the EPS has highs only near 52 averaged out for the 11-15 or only about 2 AN. The lows are about 8 AN (39).
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The low temp anomalies are interesting to me.... and I'm really only speaking mby observations, but unless it's tons or clouds/precip, the Euro is usually way too warm with low temps. There have been many a night the euro/eps chart was showing upper 20's to low 30's and temps verify in low to mid 20's. It struggles in good rational cooling locations and this is probably more of an exception to the rule scenario.
 
KyloG said:
Jan 89 popping up as a popular analog.

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And yet somehow in the pattern below there was 2 big winter storms within a week in the SE. Power of the -EPO.

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The amazing thing about that snow is how far south it got, especially in GA. That gave a very rare accumulating SAV snow (1”). They’ve had only two 1”+ snows since (12/89 and 1/18) along with only 3 sub 1” accumulated snows (3/93, 2/96, 2/10). But this is reflective of our very rare snow climo.
 
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It's really interesting how well tolerance and temperament correlate with what kind of pattern is showing up. Not directed at anyone specifically...just a general observation.
 
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Refreshing


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KyloG said:
I get the AAM thing but if it was that much of a global driver you would think CPC or another world agency would be monitoring it. It just doesn't make sense...to me it's just one domino. I don't even know if this is a MJO ph4/5 deal, the GEFS doesn't even have it making it to ph4/5 on todays run...the BC version does but that's like day 13. Will see what the EPS MJO run shows here soon but my guess is it will day 13+ deal.

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Even if you ignore the MJO and the -AAM, then you have a strong +AO and a +NAO. There’s literally nothing to hang one’s hat on for cold in the first half of January. It doesn’t get much worse than this from an indicators standpoint.
 
GaWx said:
Even if you ignore the MJO and the -AAM, then you have a strong +AO and a +NAO. There’s literally nothing to hang one’s hat on for cold in the first half of January. It doesn’t get much worse than this from an Indicators standpoint.
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Agreed, consolidated tPV right over the pole is a real thorn and not something most planned on. And, agree that argues for AN temps until it changes.
 
SD said:
These 2 posts sort of go hand in hand with me. I agree about the ensembles running past D10 but as kylo shows when you break the members out from the mean you get some wildly different solutions. I'd love to be able to get more "cluster" data from the ensembles. Give me the ability to click on D11 and show me the most common 500mb patterns from the members and how many common members there are.

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@KyloG has never been more insulted by saying one of my post sort of goes hand in hand with his. Lol
 
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