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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Honestly winter is over which some folks will say it never started... But im sticking to my guns ive been on the cliff since November about this winter cause i knew the models showing any signs of cold or winter weather was a bunch of baloney... Guys stop falling for the useless government trash models during the winter months
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
Honestly winter is over which some folks will say it never started... But im sticking to my guns ive been on the cliff since November about this winter cause i knew the models showing any signs of cold or winter weather was a bunch of baloney... Guys stop falling for the useless government trash models during the winter months
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So we should ignore the trashy Euro run from last night that showed a torch? Ok...will do.


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ATLwxfan said:
So we should ignore the trashy Euro run from last night that showed a torch? Ok...will do.


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Hmmm every model don't have a clue on whats going to happen.... yea i say lets ignore the king euro or all the other models until it actually snows and we actually open our front doors and see snow (not flurries) actually falling from the sky
 
I guess we can look at long term model projections a couple different ways by looking back. I just read back through some of the Dec thread up to the middle of the month and there was tons of optimism heading towards the end of the month and into the new year. This optimism was based off of model projections, the ensembles and indexes..... of course we see how things have evolved and how it's verifying. My point about looking at it a couple of different ways is, one we can see how things fell apart and verified warmer (reason to think things will only get worse moving forward) or the fact that models were that far off in the long range and hopefully that is the case now, as long as they aren't way off on how warm it will be. Goes to what @Jon was saying in the main thread, models, including king euro and it's ens haven't been to good in the LR. I'm neutral right now about how January will turn out, it's just way too early to really have any type of feel for it.
 
KyloG said:
It's like staring into the sun when looking at that GOA ridge.

View attachment 29058
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Yep, it is showing full blown SER dominating warmth, similar to recent winters and a typical -AAM/warm MJO phases/+AO response. As I said yesterday, we’d be lucky to have a near normal first half of January with this terrible combo of indices. At 2 meters, this is how the anomalies look in the 11-15: E US torch
1577454561488.png

Now, to see how much warmer it is vs the prior run, here’s the prior (12Z) EPS 11-15:

1577454683280.png

Did the 0Z EPS go too warm? Maybe but it sure looks realistic for a -AAM/MJO phases 4-5/+AO combo.
 
GaWx said:
Yep, it is showing full blown SER dominating warmth, similar to recent winters and a typical -AAM/warm MJO phases/+AO response. As I said yesterday, we’d be lucky to have a near normal first half of January with this terrible combo of indices. At 2 meters, this is how the anomalies look in the 11-15: E US torch
View attachment 29059

Now, to see how much warmer it is vs the prior run, here’s the prior (12Z) EPS 11-15:

View attachment 29060

Did the 0Z EPS go too warm? Maybe but it sure looks realistic for a -AAM/MJO phases 4-5/+AO combo.
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That's weird and must be aided by warm overnight temps. Looking at the mean highs for my location they aren't that bad

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metwannabe said:
I guess we can look at long term model projections a couple different ways by looking back. I just read back through some of the Dec thread up to the middle of the month and there was tons of optimism heading towards the end of the month and into the new year. This optimism was based off of model projections, the ensembles and indexes..... of course we see how things have evolved and how it's verifying. My point about looking at it a couple of different ways is, one we can see how things fell apart and verified warmer (reason to think things will only get worse moving forward) or the fact that models were that far off in the long range and hopefully that is the case now, as long as they aren't way off on how warm it will be. Goes to what @Jon was saying in the main thread, models, including king euro and it's ens haven't been to good in the LR. I'm neutral right now about how January will turn out, it's just way too early to really have any type of feel for it.
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I am all for we don't know how week 3 on the EPS is going to turn out but before any improvement happens it's going to be tough to get a ridge to poke through that boulder of a tropospheric polar vortex. That son a gun looks stout, consolidated right over the pole. With a coupled strat/trop we would need some strat help to push it off the pole and nothing is showing that right now. But, like some are saying models have been wrong in the extended.

I came into this winter the lowest expectations I have had for any winter but I still felt like we would see an event or two. I thought a blend of 05/07 was reasonable and right now this looks worse.
 
SD said:
That's weird and must be aided by warm overnight temps. Looking at the mean highs for my location they aren't that bad

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I think we are going to have enough fronts move though to not be full blown 60-70's. The 50/50 still getting fed and of course still looks active.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-8700800-1.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_7day-8700800.png
 
KyloG said:
I think we are going to have enough fronts move though to not be full blown 60-70's. The 50/50 still getting fed and of course still looks active.

View attachment 29061View attachment 29062
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Yeah when larry posted about the eps being warmer earlier I looked at our temps and was like what gives. Still sucks that the eps dropped the big cold shot next week the mean had a high of like 39 or 40

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GaWx said:
Yep, it is showing full blown SER dominating warmth, similar to recent winters and a typical -AAM/warm MJO phases/+AO response. As I said yesterday, we’d be lucky to have a near normal first half of January with this terrible combo of indices. At 2 meters, this is how the anomalies look in the 11-15: E US torch
View attachment 29059

Now, to see how much warmer it is vs the prior run, here’s the prior (12Z) EPS 11-15:

View attachment 29060

Did the 0Z EPS go too warm? Maybe but it sure looks realistic for a -AAM/MJO phases 4-5/+AO combo.
Click to expand...

I get the AAM thing but if it was that much of a global driver you would think CPC or another world agency would be monitoring it. It just doesn't make sense...to me it's just one domino. I don't even know if this is a MJO ph4/5 deal, the GEFS doesn't even have it making it to ph4/5 on todays run...the BC version does but that's like day 13. Will see what the EPS MJO run shows here soon but my guess is it will day 13+ deal.

combphase_noCFSfull.gifensplume_full.gif
 
SD said:
That's weird and must be aided by warm overnight temps. Looking at the mean highs for my location they aren't that bad
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Good observation. Yes, it is mainly the lows rather than the highs that are so mild, which has been a common thing throughout the E US during the 2010s warmth throughout the year. On this 0Z EPS, RDU is about 5 AN overall but with the lows about 8 AN (~39 vs 31 normal) and the highs only about 2 AN (~52 vs 50 normal).
 
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