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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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GFS operational really moderating temperatures the closer we get to next week, looks like a lot more 50s and 60s. I don’t know how many freezes KATL has so far, 3 maybe 4, and none in the near future. We may see signs of Spring here soon, not being at all sarcastic.
 
J.C. said:
GFS operational really moderating temperatures the closer we get to next week, looks like a lot more 50s and 60s. I don’t know how many freezes KATL has so far, 3 maybe 4, and none in the near future. We may see signs of Spring here soon, not being at all sarcastic.
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looks like 4 freezes according to Nowdata records.. I guess that's hartsfield airport. Had 12 so far in Chattanooga since Nov.
 
JB = ? , it’s pinches your nerves to see these types of posts knowing the upcoming crap pattern and lack of support for this solutionB07F0E1C-7AF9-4774-87E3-C73E6DAAC77F.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Forget snow, I can’t even get below freezing one time during a 384hr run of the GFS..might be time to start worrying about soil temps? FML
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I don't think about missing out on snow since snow is so rare here, but I do think about the potential for bad bugs for next spring/summer if we don't get enough freezes.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
JB = ? , it’s pinches your nerves to see these types of posts knowing the upcoming crap pattern and lack of support for this solution View attachment 29051
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It would help if certain forecasters didn't ignore the obvious biases of models. Doesn't he realize that the 9-16 will very likely warm up considerably as it rolls forward into the 1-8 just like the current 1-8 did vs when it was in the 9-16?? He's cruising for a bruisin'. At least BAMwx and Cohen have recognized reality recently even if that means they admitted they busted badly. But not good ole stubborn JB. He shouldn't have given in to his temptation and cooled his initially near normal winter forecast. smh
 
I’ve started looking back at the first forecast still available on tropical tidbits and comparing it to the first 7 days of the latest run, it’s easy to see it’s cold bias.
 
J.C. said:
I’ve started looking back at the first forecast still available on tropical tidbits and comparing it to the first 7 days of the latest run, it’s easy to see it’s cold bias.
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they never fixed the even more cold biased 'new and improved' gfs fv3 which is now are current regular gfs.. right? Or am i wrong on this...
 
GaWx said:
It would help if certain forecasters didn't ignore the obvious biases of models. Doesn't he realize that the 9-16 will very likely warm up considerably as it rolls forward into the 1-8 just like the current 1-8 did vs when it was in the 9-16?? He's cruising for a bruisin'. At least BAMwx and Cohen have recognized reality recently even if that means they admitted they busted badly. But not good ole stubborn JB. He shouldn't have given in to his temptation and cooled his initially near normal winter forecast. smh
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If you look at a certain comment under that post, there’s a 2m temp anomaly map from the gefs for Jan 1st, 270 hours ago it had a very cold eastern US/GLs/Canada, then now 132-138 hours out now and it’s backed off that cold significantly, very classic case of a cold bias
 
SETNwx said:
they never fixed the even more cold biased 'new and improved' gfs fv3 which is now are current regular gfs.. right? Or am i wrong on this...
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Interestingly enough, though the FV3 still has a cold bias and it sometimes has unrealistic very cold runs that are colder than the GEFS , it on occasion has very warm runs like the new 0Z that are much warmer than the GEFS and even a good bit warmer than the EPS.. As a result, my daily observations of the FV3 vs the GEFS are telling me the GEFS has averaged a bit colder than the FV3. It is possible that they reduced this FV3 cold bias somewhat.

Is anyone staying up for the King? For those not staying up, I wonder if some are using their Euro alarms?
 
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Brent said:
this is the point forecast for freaking Las Vegas(yes the Las Vegas notorious for heat) btw it snowed there last year too...

Monday
A slight chance of rain and snow before 11am
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Not to mention the Rockies have been loaded for the ski resorts again this year.
 
This year has been weird.

January-February was Fall
March was Winter
April-October was Summer
November was Winter
December is Fall

Now January is looking like Fall.

In all seriousness that, I'm guilty of looking and these preseason forecasts and getting excited only to be let down, I try to be optimistic instead of cynical for winters like this but it's getting harder and harder to not be cynical.
 
RollTide18 said:
This year has been weird.

January-February was Fall
March was Winter
April-October was Summer
November was Winter
December is Fall

Now January is looking like Fall.

In all seriousness that, I'm guilty of looking and these preseason forecasts and getting excited only to be let down, I try to be optimistic instead of cynical for winters like this but it's getting harder and harder to not be cynical.
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We’re not even in January yet let’s not panic
 
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